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Thread: NZR

  1. #21
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    This TV special addresses the state of the oil industry, an incessantly
    pressing issue facing our global economy and environment. "PBS: Extreme
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    challenges of the oil industry.

    The series, and this thorough website, take viewers on a world 'oil
    tour'. Travel below ground, through pipelines, in barrels, aboard ships,
    across oceans as well as into the minds of those who work on the production
    and distribution of what has long been known as 'black gold'. The site
    features a fascinating history of the industry, an education into the
    science behind the business, as well as highlighting crucial environmental
    issues facing the oil trade and its diminishing resources.

    http://www.pbs.org/wnet/extremeoil/


  2. #22
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    Phaedrus, I note that you haven't adjusted your chart for the $1.00 (plus full imps) dividend in september. Any reason for this?

    PS: welcome back!
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  3. #23
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    Yes. Oversight. NZR looks even better when adjusted. I won't post the chart again though - I don't want to exacerbate K1w1's epistaxis!

  4. #24
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    NZR
    11/10/2004
    GENERAL

    REL: 0828 HRS The New Zealand Refining Company Limited

    GENERAL: NZR: High margins continue for NZRC

    Throughput for the two month period ending August 2004 was 6,561,000 barrels
    (same period 2003 6,660,000). The lower throughput was due to lower volumes
    of blendstock being received and constraints resulting from the introduction
    of new fuel specifications. These constraints will not be overcome until the
    start-up of the Future Fuels Project in 2005.

    The margin achieved for the period of USD6.55 (2003 USD3.05) was the highest
    for the year. Noting that the margin reported for the two month period ending
    June was adversely affected by the shutdown.

    refer www.nzrc.co.nz for the last three years Throughput and Margin
    information

    A copy of this release can be requested from lcr@nzx.com.
    End CA:00106315 For:NZR Type:GENERAL Time:2004-10-11:08:28:26


  5. #25
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    And now the price is 2700cps. How high can you fly?

  6. #26
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    I notice that this recent upward action in the shareprice has happened since I announced that my analysis a week or so ago that I valued NZR around $30[^]

    Should I give up my night job?[?]

    lol
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  7. #27
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    Certainl not because you are WAAAAAAAAAAAAy below the mark

  8. #28
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    Yes, I do remember those days gone by when NZR was above $40. Then again, I also remember when NZR was $1.50...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  9. #29
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    Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.

  10. #30
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    quote:Originally posted by k1w1

    Yet again the SP in a NZX company jumps for no good reason. Then a positive announcement is made "to keep the market fully informed". Clearly some were fully informed prior to others.
    K1w1, my opinion is that there is a good reason why the shareprice jumped. NZR is fundamentally under-valued and has been for quite a while, a fact IMHO which investors are begining to wake-up to given the current econimic climate. The positive announcement released today in not really that unexpected, especially given the previous few production figures released...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  11. #31
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    I am a little confused, and perhaps someone can help. I see that on the direct borking web site the full year profit for NZR is reported as being 71.225 million. Now this appears to be the last half year result (34.278) plus the last *full* year result (36.947) added together!!!

    Am I right in assuming this, or have I got something wrong. If I am right then this is a little screwed up, is it not?

    (This is no reflection on Direct Broking, as I am aware that most brokers get their financial figures via a service)

  12. #32
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    mm, you are correct in your assumption.

    This sort of issue (reported financial data integrety) is being currently being discussed in another thread.
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  13. #33
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    Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
    6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
    6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
    That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result

  14. #34
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    One for NZR'ers:

    http://www.aireview.com/index.php?ac...catid=8&id=705
    quote:Over 50% upside seen in NZ Refining Co
    While refining margins have been strengthening for the past few years, the analysts at CSFB have taken a number of factors into consideration and as a result see potential share price upside in excess of 50% to New Zealand Refining Company’s (NZR.NZ) current share price.

    Price elasticity of demand has been low recently, the analysts point out and this has driven changes to their refining margin forecasts with the outlook seen as generally improving.

    CSFB new mid-cycle refining margin forecast for the Asia Pacific region has risen by 40% to US$3.50/bbl, while FY05 forecasts have been increased by 60% to US$4.00/bbl.

    Incorporating the new Singapore refining margins into earnings forecasts sees FY05 profit expectations rising by a whopping 277% and FY06 by 121%.

    The company’s valuation rises 86% to NZ$32.00 and its target by 80% to NZ$34.70, not bad for a stock that closed yesterday at NZ$22.25.

  15. #35
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    quote:Originally posted by craic

    Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
    6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
    6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
    That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result
    well you can do a simple extrapolation from last year and come up with a year end result of around 89 million

  16. #36
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    Craic i see nzr has gone up 26% in the last week according to NZHearld. Why have u gone quiet on this one? You haven't gone stupid and sold out just as the rise occured.
    I have no investment in NZR but liked your reasoning in the past as to it's value.All in NOG and some Aus oilers,but think that NZR and drilling rigs are also in the right game for the future.
    digger

  17. #37
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    Digger, I have gone silent because there is little more to say. Not many of these shares on the market anyway. Thanks to this and one or two others, my portfolio has grown $22,000 in just two months. Not bad for an Old-Age Pensioner. I just need MHI to go through the roof folowed by CEN, PGG and a couple of others and I will be able to get off this monotonous bread and dripping diet at last.

  18. #38
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    Bread & dripping Craic? Nowt wrong with it lad. Luxury I say.
    Stay on it and top up NZR with the dough you save.

  19. #39
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    o gosh! Up another ~5% to $29.50. If nose-bleeds are contagious, start searching for buckets and mops.
    Thanks to posters for sensible discussions. I'm practically swooning over the thought of bread and dripping upgrades, and could well have sold out in the general excitement of the last few months.
    If they keep the divis respectable though, I'm going to have to keep them forever, having an average entry of 1627.
    Cheers .

  20. #40
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    good to see the price moving again here.
    shame i sold mine two weeks ago.
    good that i bought NOG options with the money.
    and that NOGOC has risen 30% in that time.
    would like to dip in again here tho... I like the divi's too

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