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Thread: NZR

  1. #31
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    I am a little confused, and perhaps someone can help. I see that on the direct borking web site the full year profit for NZR is reported as being 71.225 million. Now this appears to be the last half year result (34.278) plus the last *full* year result (36.947) added together!!!

    Am I right in assuming this, or have I got something wrong. If I am right then this is a little screwed up, is it not?

    (This is no reflection on Direct Broking, as I am aware that most brokers get their financial figures via a service)

  2. #32
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    mm, you are correct in your assumption.

    This sort of issue (reported financial data integrety) is being currently being discussed in another thread.
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  3. #33
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    Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
    6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
    6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
    That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result

  4. #34
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    One for NZR'ers:

    http://www.aireview.com/index.php?ac...catid=8&id=705
    quote:Over 50% upside seen in NZ Refining Co
    While refining margins have been strengthening for the past few years, the analysts at CSFB have taken a number of factors into consideration and as a result see potential share price upside in excess of 50% to New Zealand Refining Company’s (NZR.NZ) current share price.

    Price elasticity of demand has been low recently, the analysts point out and this has driven changes to their refining margin forecasts with the outlook seen as generally improving.

    CSFB new mid-cycle refining margin forecast for the Asia Pacific region has risen by 40% to US$3.50/bbl, while FY05 forecasts have been increased by 60% to US$4.00/bbl.

    Incorporating the new Singapore refining margins into earnings forecasts sees FY05 profit expectations rising by a whopping 277% and FY06 by 121%.

    The company’s valuation rises 86% to NZ$32.00 and its target by 80% to NZ$34.70, not bad for a stock that closed yesterday at NZ$22.25.

  5. #35
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    quote:Originally posted by craic

    Yes you appear to be right.The operating surpluses after tax are
    6 months to 30 June 2004 $34.278m
    6months to 31 Dec. 2003 $22.86m
    That amounts to $57.134m for the 12 month period BUT this is the half-year period so the full year result will be to December and that should be a cracker - close to double last years result
    well you can do a simple extrapolation from last year and come up with a year end result of around 89 million

  6. #36
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    Craic i see nzr has gone up 26% in the last week according to NZHearld. Why have u gone quiet on this one? You haven't gone stupid and sold out just as the rise occured.
    I have no investment in NZR but liked your reasoning in the past as to it's value.All in NOG and some Aus oilers,but think that NZR and drilling rigs are also in the right game for the future.
    digger

  7. #37
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    Digger, I have gone silent because there is little more to say. Not many of these shares on the market anyway. Thanks to this and one or two others, my portfolio has grown $22,000 in just two months. Not bad for an Old-Age Pensioner. I just need MHI to go through the roof folowed by CEN, PGG and a couple of others and I will be able to get off this monotonous bread and dripping diet at last.

  8. #38
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    Bread & dripping Craic? Nowt wrong with it lad. Luxury I say.
    Stay on it and top up NZR with the dough you save.

  9. #39
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    o gosh! Up another ~5% to $29.50. If nose-bleeds are contagious, start searching for buckets and mops.
    Thanks to posters for sensible discussions. I'm practically swooning over the thought of bread and dripping upgrades, and could well have sold out in the general excitement of the last few months.
    If they keep the divis respectable though, I'm going to have to keep them forever, having an average entry of 1627.
    Cheers .

  10. #40
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    good to see the price moving again here.
    shame i sold mine two weeks ago.
    good that i bought NOG options with the money.
    and that NOGOC has risen 30% in that time.
    would like to dip in again here tho... I like the divi's too

  11. #41
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    Seems that the reason for the jump was nothing more exciting than an article in the Dominion that highlighted the recent high margins report.

  12. #42
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    No, I think its more than the high margins. Its the fact that the NZ dollar being high is more than compensated for by the margins. You can't suddenly fix neglected oil infrastructure, nor speedily address the demand made by Chinese industrialisation. So its sustainable for the immediate duration.

    In the middle turn, the debottlenecking of the pipeline will produce an annual increased return of about 20% per annum. In Buffett terms it puts a moat around NZR from domestic competition. Who can get a tank farm big enough to service Auckland built under the RMA ? How expensive is it to tanker petrol from New Plymouth or Tauranga when someone can just pump it down a pipeline to Auckland and from there to other areas as required.

    The other moat building exercise is the new low emmission fuels project which will be able to be met without capital raising from debt and cash flows. This will narrow the range of refineries capable of sourcing alternative supplies to Marsden Point which has negotiated margins with Govt prior to agreeing to the upgrade. So will be harder to undercut with the new higher standards fuel in NZ will have to meet.

    The highest cost of the refinery is electricity so the joint venture regarding electricity co-generation using oil or wood chips makes sense in terms of keeping long term costs down.

    Makes for a sound long term put in your bottom draw share, especially with the fully imputed dividends.

  13. #43
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    you can bung on top of that the possibility of LNG imports into Marsden point. More than likely to go on NZR land and be a joint venture.

    Its intersting to note that NZR's market share is actually slipping though due to it running at maximum but the market still growing. But with the new pumps on the pipeline it should be able to shift more product down it even if it is imported into Marsden. They still get a fee per bbl.

    Not too sure about the comments on the project being funded from cash flows... the clean fuel project cost 180m (read NR) and profits for the half year are only 35m (not that bad though).
    Chris
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    Am I a pro trader or just a try hard wanna be...

  14. #44
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    Chris, sorry it was not that clear. Funded by debt and cash flows means that the banks will advance them the funds and that the interest and repayments can be met from cashflow without requiring further capital raising such as a rights issue.

  15. #45
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    Kiwi, I did not say that the price rise was on higher margins - but that it was in response to an article in the Dominion. The article extolled the benefits of the margins etc. The article headlined the company at the top of the business news page and drew it to the attention of the readers. I am always surprised at the good companies, making good profits and capital gains who are left without any mention in the media while some cr appy little outfits gain all sorts of publicity for no better reason than that someone somewhere has a vested interest in pushing the name and the journos don't know enouigh to know that they are being used

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