CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[BIRMANBOY]

Such a sunny upbeat disposition...nice to see. :-) Thats the thing about traders they are eternal optimists.

NZR is a chartist's dream.

[scamper]

nzr charts always give clear signals, but more than two are needed....
If today's 6% rise holds, the sp will nudge/poke through the 30-day MA -- which it hasn't done in the last 6 months!
Divi increase from 2 to 3 cps is a good increase -- no stuffing around with 0.5 cents or less.
Rivers (and macduffy) being openly realistic about the unknowable exchange rate
Birmanboy, i agree it's disturbing that they don't have a public relations person on the ball, but if i had spare cash, i think now would be a good time.
Do your own research! Cheers

[BIRMANBOY]

Like I said its nice to see a silver lining in every cloud. Any self respecting business will /should have foreign currency hedging mechanisms in place to protect it from foreign currency losses so I dont have your optimism regards its prospects. There are plenty of other companies much more deserving of "spare cash" rather than this "mates own" business. The only thing going for it is the slight chance that the share price could give some capital gain if enough traders believe it and get with the program. Show some belief Scamper and buy some ..it could be the start of the rally!

nzr charts always give clear signals, but more than two are needed....
If today's 6% rise holds, the sp will nudge/poke through the 30-day MA -- which it hasn't done in the last 6 months!
Divi increase from 2 to 3 cps is a good increase -- no stuffing around with 0.5 cents or less.
Rivers (and macduffy) being openly realistic about the unknowable exchange rate
Birmanboy, i agree it's disturbing that they don't have a public relations person on the ball, but if i had spare cash, i think now would be a good time.
Do your own research! Cheers

[Hoop]

NZR is a chartist's dream.

Hmmm...wouldn't call it a chartist dream just yet Belg...but it does have my attention.

My freebee chart sadly only has up to last Friday's data so I don't know if the TA indicators buy signals have fired or not..

However the S&R and trend lines are firing attention buy signals as they are breaking ...but not yet confirmed enough for a more conservative investor to take a punt.

NZR is a strange share...It was an investor haven during the last Bear Market Cycle...However if you bought in at the beginning of the latest Bull Market you would now have lost half of that capital.

We may be entering another NZX Bear market Cycle.... is it possible that NZR could once again be another haven....time will tell.

[moimoi]

The bizarre aspect of this share is that it last traded down in the low 3's when the refining margin collapsed to $1. The average margin for the past 6 months has been $6.56 and the share just doesn't seem to have been able to get out of its own way.

A push to the $3.75 area could be on the cards which is where most of the volume has occurred over the past year.

Company could do with updating the top twenty on its website too :-(

[sharer]

A steady result from NZR with NPAT up 7.5%, interim dividend increased from 2c to 3cps.

Doesn't do a lot though to restore NZR's previous status as a steady high yield income stock, particularly when so many other NZ companies are showing good yields at present. CEO Ken Rivers highlighted the fact that NZR's profits remain hostage to the USD/NZD exchange rate and the impossibility of predicting future movements. This will continue to weigh on the SP, IMO.

Again i agree. Last time my small enterprise considered allocating spare cash to this holding we were right to avoid it, & would do the same today. Like Hoop, we are watching carefully, but the falling trend dominates the picture. So we're looking at other candidates for our capital. (Last time it favoured TEL, which turned out well from a trustees point of view, & might do so again ...)

[macduffy]

Company could do with updating the top twenty on its website too :-(

I don't think it matters much.

We all know that the oil companies hold the majority of the shares - and that the Infratil/NZ Super Fund JV have bought Shell's shares.

Surprising though, because in the past NZR have won awards for communication with shareholders and for the quality and extent of information in their reports.

Not on my buying list at present.

[macduffy]

I saw NZR's CEO on TVOne Business this morning extolling the virtues of his company.It seems the 50th anniversary looms and the company will mark the ocassion with a name change - from NZ Refining to "Refining NZ" - whooppee!

Hints there also of some further corporate moves with possibilities of other big oil co's selling down or out but I guess no surprises there if/when it happens.

A general softening up of shareholders in expectation of more major expansion/modernisation expenditure to increase the throughput of refined product and reduce NZ's dependence on importing refined fuels.

[macduffy]

FWIW, Macquarie Equities rates NZR as "Outperform".

"New Zealand Refining Company NZR Outperform

Margins weaken; high unusual costs

NZR has provided FY11 NPAT guidance of $43-48m – 22% and 16% lower than Macq. and consensus ($58m and $54m respectively).
FY11-13 EPS downgrades of -21%, -16% and -25% resp on lower gross margin, higher operating and fuel cost forecasts. Price Target lowered to $4.05 ($4.42).
The current share price is now consistent with a LT margin of around US$4.80/bbl (NZD/USD 0.7), which is around 17% lower than the long term average. "

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Macduffy A question how many do Macquarie equities want to sell. or is this just my suspicious Mind. Why are the oil companies wanting to sell out.