CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[BlackPeter]

nzr looks bright ahead.., the trend is starting to turn.., can't resist ..but to add to my portfoilo.., so long after THL.., it is my second heavy weight stock

Attachment 6488

"the trend is starting to turn" - sounds a bit like the understatement of the year . But yes, I believe there is still plenty of grunt left in the upleg, i.e. you probably could currently buy worse than NZR. Low petrol prices, somewhat weaker NZD and improved refinery performance all helps to make this stock looking attractive again.

Discl: holding (lots) and quite pleased with this stock. However - DYOR & check my signature ...

[golden city]

looks so good.., got in on time.., it is cracking..

[BlackPeter]

looks so good.., got in on time.., it is cracking..

Psst - don't tell the crowds ... they are so busy on the PEB, OHE and ATM threads that they don't notice where the money is

[cdonald]

With NZD/USD running at 79c average for the month and Singapore Complex margins at around $5 USD is would be safe to assume a pretty healthy profit for the month being that NZR margins are running on average $5 ahead of Singapore so maybe the return to $10 margins at a greatly improved exchange rate. And with them actually exceeding their cost cutting targets its all looking good. Touch wood!

[moimoi]

It surely has been a remarkable turnaround in the last 2 weeks after 8 months of struggling to maintain $1.70.

Interesting the collapse of the share price in the 2 days prior to the announcement of the cap raise @ $1.68 wasn't looked into.....

[BFG]

Wonder how NZR will benefit from this? The next big thing for Next Big Thing?

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...41127?irpc=932

[Schrodinger]

Wonder how NZR will benefit from this? The next big thing for Next Big Thing?

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...41127?irpc=932

I guess it depends on how long the powers that be decide to wage economic warfare on Russia.

Oil at 65 means good times for NZR and AIR. Interesting to see how the geopolitical situation pans out. I would be watching all press releases from Russia and USA over Ukraine and then make some judgements.

[cdonald]

I guess it depends on how long the powers that be decide to wage economic warfare on Russia.

Oil at 65 means good times for NZR and AIR. Interesting to see how the geopolitical situation pans out. I would be watching all press releases from Russia and USA over Ukraine and then make some judgements.

Oil at $65 doesn't mean good times for NZR. NZR fee is based on the difference in price between oil and products. If products trend down too then the price of oil is actually irrelevant. NZR was actually making its best margins when the price of oil was high. At the moment the singapore margins are holding up so it looks good. As the price of petrol goes down, consumption increases (as does the road toll). The exchange rate being at 78 is a lot bigger factor on profitability rather than the price of oil though. Every 1c decrease roughly puts 3m onto the bottom line.

[Schrodinger]

Oil at $65 doesn't mean good times for NZR. NZR fee is based on the difference in price between oil and products. If products trend down too then the price of oil is actually irrelevant. NZR was actually making its best margins when the price of oil was high. At the moment the singapore margins are holding up so it looks good. As the price of petrol goes down, consumption increases (as does the road toll). The exchange rate being at 78 is a lot bigger factor on profitability rather than the price of oil though. Every 1c decrease roughly puts 3m onto the bottom line.

"Crude prices declined from around USD 105 per barrel earlier in the year to around USD 85 per barrel by
the end of October. Lower crude pricing improves Refining NZ’s competitiveness against imported
product due to lower inventory costs for its customers. At the current crude price of around USD 80 per
barrel, Refining NZ is competitive at a GRM of USD 5.50 per barrel or better."

NZR seems to think it does

[cdonald]

"Crude prices declined from around USD 105 per barrel earlier in the year to around USD 85 per barrel by
the end of October. Lower crude pricing improves Refining NZ’s competitiveness against imported
product due to lower inventory costs for its customers. At the current crude price of around USD 80 per
barrel, Refining NZ is competitive at a GRM of USD 5.50 per barrel or better."

NZR seems to think it does

Yes, I understand that they have said this. I dont understand why they find it relevant though. I think they were using it as an argument for their processing fee calculations etc. Truth be known, if you have a look back thru all of the thruput releases over the last few years the refinery is running at approx 100,000 barrels of oil a day regardless of the price of oil so I struggle to see the "competitiveness" argument.