CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[golden city]

it is a indicative eps for next year i think more realisticly

[bunter]

Hi, sorry not too sure how you have calculated your EPS. The $8/bbl and exchange rate is only for the last 6 months of the year. The first part of the year ran at a loss due to major planned shutdown and poor margins.

I used the table on p 17 here,

http://www.refiningnz.com/media/92331/analyst_presentation_full_year_results_2013.pdf

Then divided by 330m shares on issue (though I see there seem to be only 312m on issue currently).

The '0' figures reflect a negative result underwritten by the major shareholders and written off annually.
But we seem to be well clear of that for now.

So yes, it's a forecast for a year's earnings if the figures were to apply for a year.

TMH, according to my notes on the report linked above (excerpt below), should boost earnings by 20cps - say 14c to the NPAT.

So if your estimates held for a year, and TMH goes as forecast, EPS would be 47cps.

And $5 share price?

"Increase in capacity of 3 million barrels p.a.
• Estimated uplift in margin of US$1.10 / bbl

through improved energy performance and
product yields
• The above leads to an increase in operating

cashflows of ~$60m p.a.; processing fee increase of~$70m less ~$10m operating cost "

[dingoNZ]

Upgraded guidance NPAT of $9.5-10.5m. Processed 700,000 more barrels more than expected and at favorable exchange rates, great stuff from NZR.

The Gross Refinery Margin1) (GRM) for the period was USD 9.98 per barrel with a throughput of 7.1 million barrels. This delivered a Processing Fee income of NZD 63.9 million, enabling the Fee Floor2) to be completely paid back to customers. The average exchange rate was USD/NZD 0.78.
For the full year we achieved a GRM of USD 4.96 per barrel with a throughput of 39.7 million barrels, ahead of the updated guidance of 39 million barrels given in the interim results announcement. Processing Fee income was NZD 168 million, 5% ahead of the 2013 Processing Fee.
Singapore complex margins were healthy and averaged USD 4.48 per barrel for November/December. Refining NZ’s margin uplift over Singapore complex margins of USD 5.50 per barrel for the period was again higher than the normal range of USD 3 - 4 per barrel, driven by the 2014 margin initiatives, excellent operational performance and favourable crude prices. The crude price movements included an ongoing narrow Brent-Dubai spread and reduced market premia for crude oil over the Brent and Dubai benchmark prices.
We saw crude prices decline further to end the year at around USD 50 per barrel. Lower crude prices improve our competitiveness against imported product due to lower inventory costs for our customers. At the current crude price of below USD 50 per barrel, Refining NZ is competitive at a GRM of USD 4.50 per barrel or better.
Appendix I shows further information on throughput, margin and refining income.
Historic Analysis
A five year history of Throughput, Margins and Processing Fees is attached as Appendix II and can also be found on the company’s website: www.refiningnz.com
1) Refining NZ’s Gross Refining Margin is defined as the typical market value of the products produced minus the typical market value of the feedstock used, expressed per barrel of feedstock used. The margin incorporates the cost of the hydrocarbon used for fuel and incurred as process losses.
2) The Fee Floor is the minimum Processing Fee due, for a calendar year, up to a maximum of NZD 126 million for 2014 (see Explanatory Notes for more detail).

[bull....]

Massive

announement that is of the turn around in there business

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/259880

[dodgy]

Massive

announement that is of the turn around in there business

https://www.nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/259880

Its time to start concentrating on the reasons outlined in prior posts by various posters. This time next year or earlier circa $3+. Blue sky above.

[bull....]

full year EPS of 3.5cps and a PE of 70+ is hardly anything to crow about from a well established company

Its what the next yr looks like could be massive, work out what dec throughput is times 12 at the grm and you can get a simplistic picture of the upside - throughput should move much higher as it is better to refine here

[dodgy]

full year EPS of 3.5cps and a PE of 70+ is hardly anything to crow about from a well established company

I agree Snaps, but, all the factors point to improvement e.g exch rate and expansion etc. I suggest that when a div is reintroduced the sp will get a decent push. Maybe this won't happen this time but pretty confident next 6 monthly or at worst 2016 (Dec 15) release. Hence my optimism.

[Schrodinger]

This could go north of $3 for next earnings period as everything is in their direction atm. Based on historical earnings, oil price, exchange rates and performance improvements.

The downturn has helped them become more efficient and this should drive through to profitability and a reinstatement of dividends.

[bunter]

Thanks!

My eps matrix seems to indicate 33cps NPAT.
Add to that the impact of Te Mahi Hou, and all the improvements that seem to be happening under the new management.

Good recovery story (some, but not all of which has already been accounted for in the share price).

	ex rate		EPS matrix
margin$/bbl	70	75	80	85
4	0	0	0	0
5	10	6.7	4.5	0
6	19	16	13	10
7	28	24	21	17
8	39	38	33	29
9	47	42	37	32

Wrong again, like with HLG ... too conservative
Updated table

	ex rate		EPS matrix
margin$/bbl	70	75	80	85
4	0	0	0	0
5	10	6.7	4.5	0
6	19	16	13	10
7	28	24	21	17
8	39	38	33	29
9	47	42	37	32
10e	55	50	45	40

The $10 margin figures are just an extrapolation.


Looks like:

- 45-50 c eps after tax for a full year operating on current margins and exchange rate (bolded figures).
- 65-70c eps after tax once TMH comes on board (later this year?) based on NZR's projections for TMH.

Hmmm.

[cdonald]

Wrong again, like with HLG ... too conservative
Updated table

	ex rate		EPS matrix
margin$/bbl	70	75	80	85
4	0	0	0	0
5	10	6.7	4.5	0
6	19	16	13	10
7	28	24	21	17
8	39	38	33	29
9	47	42	37	32
10e	55	50	45	40

The $10 margin figures are just an extrapolation.


Looks like:

- 45-50 c eps after tax for a full year operating on current margins and exchange rate (bolded figures).
- 65-70c eps after tax once TMH comes on board (later this year?) based on NZR's projections for TMH.

Hmmm.

And we all know that Oil companies are screaming for cash at the moment so they are not going to sit too long on a profit without paying dividends. I wouldnt be surprised if the final profit announcement this year includes a surprise final dividend of a couple of cents. For those of you looking for yeild stocks, you wont find better.