For an easy comparison, you might want to have a look at the annual report for 2008. Things have changed a bit since then but it was a high margin year. I would imagine that 2015 will be producing similar if not better results so we might see turnover of 400m and a profit of $175m giving a pretty good EPS. 2008 was blessed by a good margin and a declining NZD in the later part of the year. 2008 and 2015 are both years without Hydrocracker shutdowns. Will be nice to see what influence the new project has (if any) in this financial year. Dont forget that the pipeline itself generates 35m in revenue. This share has been underpriced for too long and with an EPS of 50+ cents it will remain underpriced for some time yet!
roughly based on those 2008 results then at current prices pe would be 6.5
75% payout ratio would be 25c - 30c div giving a yield of 9 - 10%
at $4 share price pe 10 yield 6.25% very rough and quick but shows potential upside if the year goes good and the wildcard is they do a bumper div to make up for the last few yrs of hardly anything
If they can lift throughput that would bump up revenue and profit big time
I noticed Z operations update and there fuel sales are well up which is a big thing for a petrol company so i dont think they have got more market share and it is more likely demand is up because of lower petrol price - more driving being done so extrpolated across all petrol companies this extra demand could provide the extra through put at nz refining?
Last edited by bull....; 22-01-2015 at 11:53 AM.
Reason: more
roughly based on those 2008 results then at current prices pe would be 6.5
75% payout ratio would be 25c - 30c div giving a yield of 9 - 10%
at $4 share price pe 10 yield 6.25% very rough and quick but shows potential upside if the year goes good and the wildcard is they do a bumper div to make up for the last few yrs of hardly anything
If they can lift throughput that would bump up revenue and profit big time
.75*50c (say) = 37.5c
37.5c / 2.50 = 15% net or 21% gross dividend yield.
roughly based on those 2008 results then at current prices pe would be 6.5
75% payout ratio would be 25c - 30c div giving a yield of 9 - 10%
at $4 share price pe 10 yield 6.25% very rough and quick but shows potential upside if the year goes good and the wildcard is they do a bumper div to make up for the last few yrs of hardly anything
If they can lift throughput that would bump up revenue and profit big time
I noticed Z operations update and there fuel sales are well up which is a big thing for a petrol company so i dont think they have got more market share and it is more likely demand is up because of lower petrol price - more driving being done so extrpolated across all petrol companies this extra demand could provide the extra through put at nz refining?
High throughput is almost guaranteed because it is currently more efficient to refine here therefore they should be very near full capacity?
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by bunter
)
Bookmarks