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  1. #961
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by banter View Post
    August Singapore complex refining margins seem to be about $USD5 per barrel http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150910001212
    Recent NZR uplift-over-Singapore around $USD4 per barrel.

    Total margin $9 per barrel?
    I'm in cd donalds camp 5 - 7 total margin includes nzr uplift
    one step ahead of the herd

  2. #962
    Senior Member
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    looking good.., breakout

  3. #963
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    Expect flurry of trading over next few days, 18th being the last day before NZX 50 index changes take affect.

    Plus the throughput/margin report should be out anytime now.

  4. #964
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    https://nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/270233

    All time-record throughput of 7.52ml barrels and Margin USD 7.66 per barrel. Excellent result

  5. #965
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    https://nzx.com/companies/NZR/announcements/270233

    All time-record throughput of 7.52ml barrels and Margin USD 7.66 per barrel. Excellent result
    excellent result I'm glad they read this thread and have lifted throughputs considerably lol , there uplift was huge
    one step ahead of the herd

  6. #966
    Senior Member Dej's Avatar
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    At 1.03 billion, based solely on PE ratio valuation (conservative 15), they need an NPAT of 68 million to support there valuation.

    From last report they easily made that in the last 6 months, and with increased throughput and a good margin, surely this is undervalued based solely on earnings?
    “If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself, but to your estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment.” ― Marcus Aurelius

  7. #967
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    excellent result I'm glad they read this thread and have lifted throughputs considerably lol , there uplift was huge
    Indeed. Can anyone suggest why such a good uplift figure, or point me in the direction of how it is calculated?

    Add in the US$ level, and things are still looking quite tidy.

  8. #968
    Banned
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    Default 15c final dividend?

    Processing fee effectively maintained at $9 per barrel, as NZR 'spent' 2.3m of the $7.8m ceiling-and-floor reserve. Still 5.3m in reserve.

    Good chance then that NZR will be dancing on the ceiling (have a close look at pp 1-2), with an effective PF for the whole year of $9 per barrel or pretty close to it.

    Gearing should be down to 20-25% by year's end, allowing NZR to pay a div of 40-60% of earnings, in line with their policy.
    If they 'only' choose 40%, that means a 15cps final div. 25c if they go for 60%, and 20c with a 50% payout.

    Many variables next year, but if Te Mahi Hou is successful, it will add $.9-$1.1 per barrel to the 'uplift', and 3m extra barrels a year processed.
    NZR have other uplift initiatives planned from 2015-2018 which could add another 60-80c per barrel uplift.

    Figures given below show an estimate of results for 2016 with PF = $9 and ER = .66 (currently .635).

    Te Mahi Hou implementation failure is a current risk.

    Figures all sourced from NZR.

    15 e 16 e
    MBPD 4 0.117 0.125
    PF $USD 9 9
    ER 0.68 0.66
    Op. days/yr 347 347
    Scale factor 0.7 0.7
    RefiningRev 374.9 413.5
    Pipeline etc 63.0 64.3
    Total rev 438 477.8
    Income 438 478
    exp 3 225 229.5
    int 2 1.5 10.6
    EBT 211 238
    tax 59 67
    NPAT 4 152 171
    eps after tax 0.486 0.547
    eps before tax 0.676 0.759
    div payout % 5 40% 75%
    net div cps 0.195 0.410
    ret. Earns 91.3 42.8
    bank debt 198.0 106.7
    Gearing 21% 11%
    Gross yield 8% 17%

    NOTES
    1) 'Matrix' https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/218917.pdf p21 confirms 147 NPAT and 198m borrowings, with $9cap PF and ER .65
    2) 252m assumed at 5%, being 269 at 30/6/15, and 191 at year end, averaged less 0.5m saving from platinum lease back arrangement
    3) Exp per h115 report
    4) Agrees with matrix estimate of 147 - H2 ER .65; PF 9
    5) See note, matrix h12015, "..we are conscious that year-end borrowings have pushed gearing to 33% when our targeted ratio, outlined in the Company’s dividend policy, is 10-20%, and that further investment is required to successfully complete TMH."
    Dividend policy (NZR website)
    During periods leading up to and including major capital expenditure the dividend pay-out expressed as a percentage of NPAT will be in the 40-60% range unless otherwise advised by the Directors.
    During periods of modest capital expenditure and optimum debt levels, the dividend pay-out percentage will be above 60% unless otherwise advised by the Directors.
    Last edited by banter; 16-09-2015 at 12:00 PM.

  9. #969
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    looks like we are "well positioned" ... or is this assessment only for banks and retirement homes appropriate? Anyway - result is not too bad for a predicted "weaker" 2nd half (as per analyst presentation).

    Discl: happy holder
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  10. #970
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    We're very well positioned on this one, I reckon $4 by Christmas..

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