CHI - Channel Infrastructure Ltd (NZR)

[golden city]

well underway...looking good.., for big dividends next year

[Joshuatree]

banter thanks for sharing that, appreciate it.

[golden city]

time to invest in trilogy til..., consolidation has finished .., up trend start soon

[kiora]

time to invest in trilogy til..., consolidation has finished .., up trend start soon

Why here & not on Trilogy thread ? Are you in on it?

[golden city]

Yes. . just bought some today...looking at for long time

[kiora]

Yes. . just bought some today...looking at for long time

Better late than never

[Sideshow Bob]

thank you you again Chevron!

i continue to give thanks!

[golden city]

well done til.., nzr consolidate soon

[banter]

I reckon $4 by Christmas..

There seems to be a link between the NZR share price and EPS. No surprises there.

Historically the price seems to track the previous year's eps more closely than the present year's, and much more closely than the following year's. The price is guided more by the past than the present, and not much by the future.

This table looks at the year's high and low share price from 2006-2016. I estimate 2016 eps at around 45-55 cps.
say 50c.

	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016 e
yr high	8.15	8.14	8.35	7.66	4.46	5.2	3.32	2.81	2.29	3.35
yr low	5.71	6.06	5.5	3.58	2.9	2.72	2.19	2.03	1.58	2.12
eps- prev yr		0.48	0.4	0.45	0.08	0.21	0.123	0.1165	-0.018	0.032	0.45
eps-curr yr	0.48	0.4	0.45	0.08	0.21	0.123	0.1165	-0.018	0.032	0.45	0.50

Looking at 2015 (in green - 3.2c / 45c e) the best fit is 2010 (8c / 21c), though 2010 had higher prev year's earning and lower current year ones. In 2010, the price ranged from $2.9 - $4.46.

You might expect 2015 then to have lower lows (yes, 2.12) and higher highs (not yet - only 3.35).

Looking at 2016, 2007 and 2008 (all in blue) match well. The price range was 5.5 - 8.35.
By this stage of the year, with 8 months' data in, and some floor / ceiling payments 'in the bank', the 2015 profit figures are firming up.

There look to be more reasons for the NZR share price to go up than down.

Here's a chart showing the same thing using previous year's EPS.Attachment 7609

[sb9]

Great stuff Banter, looking at 45 eps for current year, even if were to apply a nominal 10 pe that gives you a price of at least $4.50.
I'm sure the industry pe multiple is slightly higher may be 11-12, someone can confirm that. So $4 by Christmas is very very conservative estimate in my opinion.