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Thread: GOLD

  1. #1
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Default GOLD

    Hi All

    Gold broke the uptrend line last night.
    Based on the chart below it appears to have the
    potential to head towards the blue box area where
    there is a harmonic target and PRZ.




    regards - arco





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  2. #2
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The old 'Gold Main thread' seems to have dissapered off the ASX side, so I will post any thoughts and charts here now.

    IMO there is the possiility of a reversal in the near term, with a sell off to 690-700 area before Gold can resume north bound flight.

    Watching for a reversal pattern on the daily.

    arco
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  3. #3
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    yeh looking overbought on the CMO and is positioned at the 261 extension tho not giving a turn signal yet.

    and if it retraces to the 161 then thats 685.42
    Last edited by peat; 12-09-2007 at 06:05 PM.

  4. #4
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Gold Gains, Extending Rally to 27-Year High, Amid Strike Threat

    By Claudia Carpenter

    Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold gained in London, extending a rally to a 27-year high, on speculation a strike in Peru will disrupt supplies at a time of increased demand. Silver fell.

    At least 38 mining unions decided to begin a national strike on Nov. 5, Mining Federation spokesman Cirilo Yarihuaman said Sept. 28. Newmont Mining Corp.'s Yanacocha mine in Peru was the biggest gold mine last year, according to London-based researcher GFMS Ltd. Gold has climbed 17 percent this year as investors sought an alternative to a declining dollar.

    ``The possibility of a strike in Peru is bullish news because Peru is a significant miner,'' said David Thurtell, an analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``Mine production has been struggling for some years.''

    Gold for immediate delivery gained 92 cents to $744.52 an ounce at 12:33 p.m. in London after earlier rising to $746.79, the highest since Jan. 21, 1980. Silver dropped 3.5 cents to $13.73 an ounce.

    Gold has climbed for six consecutive weeks as the dollar dropped to a record against the euro. The dollar traded at $1.4211 at 12:49 p.m. in London after earlier falling to a record low of $1.4282.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
    Last Updated: October 1, 2007 07:54 EDT
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  5. #5
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    From ABN Amro

    Economic comment
    Golden legacy
    Tim Drayson
    Robert and a few clients had a private dinner with Alan Greenspan shortly after he retired as Fed Chairman last year. To avoid a scene I was kept well away, but I was allowed to put
    forward one question (through Robert) and I asked for his thoughts on gold. He responded
    with words to the effect that it only takes a few fanatics to believe in financial Armageddon to drive the price higher. No surprise then that he didn't admit he has helped create the environment for a multi-year bull market. This week has seen gold hit a 28-year high. I first publicly expressed my optimism on gold in the Overnight Report, 'Goldfinger' 25 May 2005, when gold traded at $419 per ounce. I remain bullish even at current levels.
    You don't have to believe in an impending financial crisis and the end of fiat money to expect the gold price to rise further (though it helps - Ed). Up to mid-2005, the gold price had tracked fluctuations in the dollar. Then there was a period of decoupling, but the main driver of gold price strength in future is likely to remain dollar weakness. The unwinding of the US current-account deficit has only just begun and a further significant drop in the dollar is required to smooth the adjustment. In addition, US policymakers seem comfortable to use the dollar as a tool to reflate the economy. Gold has reacted positively to the surprise 50bp Fed cut. Some commentators viewed this as the Fed losing their inflation-fighting credibility.
    I think there is a danger of this in the future, but it hasn't happened yet. Long-term bond
    yields have now reversed their move higher after the Sept 18 FOMC. There is still virtually
    no inflation risk premium priced into bonds. When inflation worries return, this could give an
    additional lift to gold.
    Over the last decade gold has moved higher in tandem with other industrial metals and has
    received support from increased investment flows into commodity funds. This makes it
    potentially vulnerable to a correction. But there are signs that a decoupling for base metals
    might be under-way. In contrast to industrial metals, which our commodities analyst Nick
    Moore expects to experience increasing supply growth, gold supply contracted last year and
    appears to be falling again in 2007. South Africa has been worst affected: gold mine supply
    has slumped 36% since 2000 to its lowest level in 85 years according to the South African
    Chamber of Mines. For years, central banks have depressed gold prices (I don't believe this
    is a conspiracy), but this could now be changing. Central bank sales appear to running
    below those of the central bank gold agreement and there is the possibility that the Asians,
    particularly China, might seek to diversify some of their vast foreign exchange reserves into
    gold.
    Gold should do well under our central forecast for decent global growth and an orderly
    decline of the dollar. But there is potential for spectacular gains if the Fed decides to react
    more aggressively to falling house prices. This would be compounded if other central banks
    resist the dollar's decline. This could lead to a general loss of confidence in central banks
    and a desire to reduce holdings of paper currencies. Given the limited supply, gold could
    develop into the next speculative mania. (Analyst disclosure: I own physical gold and gold
    and silver stocks
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #6
    Membaa
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    Default Gold in NZD

    While USPOG bounds through long term resistance and bolts to $750, then wobbles sideways for a week or two, in the face of a bounced USD off new loooong term lows, some would call this 'consolidation'. I'd pick safety in USPOG unless it drops back through the breakout (now support) around $720. It's not out of the question for USD to climb right back to old support (now resistance), in which case, USPOG would probably heavily 'correct'. Anyway, that remains to be seen.

    But what's the point of analysing USPOG if we buy the precious metals using our hard earned NZD's? Not much point really, except it's interesting and we stay in touch with the big picture. As far as picking the buy points for physical metal accumulation (or sells if you can stand unloading precious), the trick might be to use charts of Gold in NZD. That way you know for sure whether the price in local currency is actually tracking with or against the USPOG.

    Fact is, with the NZD being on the end of the USD whipping hose, the NZPOG tends to have a life of it's own. Attached should be a snapshot of Gold in NZD. You'll see it has a similar look to USPOG, but it sure isn't exactly the same.

    I hope this might help some of those people who tend to pay way over the odds on places like TradeMe, for miniscule amounts of physical metal and coin, when in fact they could simply call NZMint or AGRNZ and purchase bars of varying sizes at Spot in NZD, plus a modest fabrication and shipping; usually in my experience a much better proposition.

    All the best
    BAA

  7. #7
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    I read on another forum that in China, banks have put up banners in faraway small towns encouraging people to buy paper gold.

    The Chinese are seemingly aware of their inflation.....unlike US which is no doubt masked by flawed statistics............................ Hence the rush to Gold is inevitable.

    Therefore the current Gold level would still appear to provide good opportunities - buying on dips.
    Last edited by arco; 17-10-2007 at 01:47 PM.
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    The smartest man I've ever met, Martin Armstrong, told me recently that gold is going to 1500 by 2010. He's made a number of calls in the past, most recently I made a nice amount of cash on his feb 27 call. He also said that the dollar will continue to go down and the us markets will go up in unison with the decline in the dollar.

  9. #9
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Craig

    Is he out of prison now..........or was that a different Martin Armstrong?

    rgds - arco
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  10. #10
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    Default

    Hi Arco,

    He is unfortunately still in prison but is no longer being held indefinitely in contempt of court, so he at least knows when he's getting out now (4 1/2 more years on his 5 year sentence even though in total he's been in jail for 8 years). Anyway the whole thing is ridiculous, I'm very close with him and his family, and I visit him a couple of times a month so I still get some of his valuable insight on the markets.

  11. #11
    Member trader10's Avatar
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    Default

    I'm wondering what gold will do in the next weeks ahead )) I've got physical gold.....and the only stock on hold with gold is AGS....

    Russia 'test-fires ballistic missile'

    December 9, 2007 - 7:14AM

    Russia test-fired an inter-continental missile with new equipment able to pierce anti-missile shields, state news agency RIA said, underscoring Moscow's determination to assert its military might.

    The RS-12M Topol ballistic missile, called the SS-25 Sickle by NATO, was successfully launched at 17:43 pm (0143 AEDT) from Kapustin Yar firing range in southern Russia, RIA said, citing a spokesman for rocket forces.

    "The launch was carried out with the aim of confirming the stability of the fundamental flying and technical characteristics of this class of missile," Rocket Forces spokesman Alexander Vovk told RIA.

    He said the test was part of a trial of unspecified new equipment that could pierce anti-missile shields. Russian generals say the country is working on weapons that would pierce any shield the United States could make.

    The launch of the revamped missile comes amid US plans for a missile defence shield in Europe, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has said would threaten Russian interests.

    Putin signed a law last week suspending Russia's participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty in a step which could allow it to deploy more forces close to western Europe. The move comes into force on December 12-13.

    As configured in 1985, the Topol has a maximum range of 10,000 km, and can carry one 550-kiloton nuclear warhead. The 20.5 metre long missile was designed in the 1970s and made its first flights in 1982.

    The last launch of a Topol missile took place on October 18.

    Buoyed by huge oil revenues, Russia under Putin has been boosting military spending while at the same time using diplomacy to broaden Moscow's influence.

    This week, Russia said it would start the first major navy sortie into the Mediterranean since Soviet times. Eleven ships, including an aircraft carrier, will take part in the sortie and be backed up by 47 aircraft-including strategic bombers.

    © 2007 Reuters

  12. #12
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    Default

    looks like gold is breaking out of its symmetrical triangle on the daily chart should get up to around 875

  13. #13
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Default

    ...with the ongoing enormous increase in the amount of paper money in mind (and a pick up in inflation in just a few months time -A SURE BET-), a study by Peter Millar in 2006:

    ""The Relevance and Importance of Gold in the World Monetary System"

    concluded that a 'Seven-fold increase in gold [is] needed to avert debt depression'

    excerpts: "In the second half of the 20th century we saw a repeat of the first three phases of the same cycle:

    "-- Phase 1: Stability from 1944 to 1968 under a gold standard.

    "-- Phase 2: Inflation from 1968 to 1981, which caused and justified another buildup of debt.

    "-- Phase 3: Disinflation from 1981 until the end of the 20th century, and maybe to the present.

    "However, it appears that Phase 4 (instability and ultimately deflation due to excessive debt) may have started. If so, Phase 5 (revaluation of the gold price to raise the monetary value of the world monetary base and hence reduce the burden of debt) becomes likely or inevitable. The extent of that revaluation would need to be major according to our calculations, probably by a factor of at least seven times, possibly up to 20 times the current price of gold."

    read the full study here: http://www.gata.org/node/4843

    ...and more "Comparison shows gold underpriced by US$ 400" here:

    http://tinyurl.com/23tdgu


    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 30-12-2007 at 07:51 PM. Reason: correction

  14. #14
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Wink What the!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    If you have interest in GOLD check out the latest price 872 it has just hit 2nd gear $900 soon might have to take my profits on me GOLD bull warrant soon 100% profits sounds good
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  15. #15
    Junior Member brookvill's Avatar
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    Smile Golden times

    Gold now trading at above A$1000 certainly great news for unhedged, or lightly hedged producers. this price action has the hallmarks of a very early speculative move in gold.
    With the US heading into a recession gold will certainly be on the move up for some time. Interesting times ahead for us gold bugs
    .

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