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The action has come up against the uptrend line and
is deciding where it should go next. Watching red
paint dry at the moment.
Still short +166
arco
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Interesting cross currents here - CAD has gone against recent trends elsewhere - just been informed there's been a huge sell order going on for the past few days in EUR/CAD, and apparently still there today
So there you go - yet another non-USD pairing in the mix, along with EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP..no wonder EUR/USD got hammered
Xerof
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Still short....... +241 at close
Expecting some support could come in
around a Gann level at 1.2451 (mentioned 20/5)
O/n low was 2448 - thats pretty close.
Now, if you fancy a read over coffee...........
Wed Jun 1 11:51:00 2005(EST)
* 01 Jun 05: 16:50(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD has confounded the market once again, more to come
CAD has caught the market on the hop. While the fundamental picture for the Canadian economy is not overwhelming, there is still a strong probability that the BoC will be raising rates as early as this summer. In this regard, especially in the context of today's price action, Thu's speech by BoC Governor Dodge on 'Monetary Policy & the Exchange Rate' will be scrutinized closely. Factors that have combined with the fundamentally positive CAD story in the short term are dominated by the broad based purge of EUR positions in the wake of the French referendum and the ongoing reports of soft data out of Europe. CAD is getting more attractive by the minute, especially after the sour news from the US ISM report today. Besides the fundamentals, M&A activity has been highlighted. China's Minmetals announced on Tue it was still interested in Noranda. Later on Tue, TIW reported the completion of a sale of one of its assets to Vodafone for an estimated USD3.5 bln, proceeds of which will be distributed to shareholders 'pursuant to a court-supervised Plan of Arrangement'. CAD may give back a bit of today's gains, but that will be seen as a buying opportunity by those that feel left behind...again.
* 01 Jun 05: 15:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flows - Asymetric reaction to ISM.
It's been that sort of market! The manufacturing ISM number at 51.4 was certainly lower than the market expectation of 52.3, from the April number at 53.3. However, the reaction could have been expected to be skewed slightly, with a bigger number likely to have seen a bigger market reaction. If EUR/USD does struggle back to 1.2300, then expect more selling. For the rest of it - the big data-point approaches with Friday's non-farm payroll. C.F.
* 01 Jun 05: 14:53(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - EUR/CAD sellers forced to late 2003 levels
CAD has confounded the market. USD/CAD was set to range trade, leaving EUR/CAD to extend its tendency to move to new lows. The price action that followed the latest purge of EUR longs may have started with a US money center bank pushing EUR/JPY through 133.00 to intraday lows of 132.70-75. But, once EUR/CAD sellers found bids hard to find, prices spiralled lower, catching the market off guard. Today's intraday low of 1.5268 has not been seen since Nov 2003 and the lows have not been seen yet. EUR/CAD support is difficult to uncover, but 1.5014 and then 1.4890 are two levels that cannot be ignored. CAD price action may have been sparked by the unlikely purge of EUR/JPY, but once it took hold, EUR/CAD was dictating direction for USD/CAD, where today's intraday low of 1.2470 is still in the middle of May's trading range. US ISM data will be the market's next test.
* 01 Jun 05: 13:34(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD shodowing USD, watch for US data to lead the way
CAD has attached itself to the USD and refuses to move significantly in either direction in USD/CAD terms. Attaching itself to USD has help to extend the trend toward lower prices in EUR/CAD and there is little to suggest the trend is close to a bottom. US data will set the tone for both currencies with today's ISM report next. Technically, look for USD/CAD to range trade with support seen at 1.2525 and resistance up at 1.2590. EUR/CAD will be shadowing EUR/USD, with momentum likely to stall for a while before picking up again to explore new lows.
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Remaining short.... +255 at close.
Trailing a tight stop now.
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A couple of Butterfly target zones
loom ahead circa 2150=2300 with possible
Gann support levels in the same area
at 2329 Minor/2207 Major.
Short from 2695 - Currently + 344
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Still heading into the target zones
and towards the Gan support levels.
Short from 2695 - Currently +406 at Fri close
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Still creeping down slowly.......
CAD appears to be out of the Bear Flag which
looks like good news but Mrs Gann at 2207 is
holding up progress.
Short from 2695 - Currently +411 at Wed close.
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Arco, you should find this site of interest. Types as he talks I guess, but look down the page for his VERY BEARISH views on USD/CAD. He seems to be relying on "History repeats", but my advice would be to listen to SplitENZ
quote:History never repeats
I tell myself before I go to sleep
And there's a light shining in the dark
Leading me on towards a change of heart
http://makoml.blogs.com/blog/
No hidden meanings
cheers
Xerof
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Hi Xerof
Yes, thats an interesting blog.
Late confirmation on that Cad short, considering
we have been bearish from away back when.
He obviously needs to read ST everyday for a few good
tips from the 'A' team who really know how to grasp
a Butterfly net.
Anyway, back to feed the Monarchs. They take alot
of looking after. Plus Mrs Gann is moaning......again!
............that hubby is away too much.
arco
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Hi Xerof
And on an aside re Split Enz.
'True colours' was one of my all time favourite albums.
In fact I wore the tape out. - Now have the CD.
(Not that History Repeats was on that album,
but it is definately one of their best IMO.
arco
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