USD.CAD

[arco]

.

Change in the value of all goods and services produced by the economy - might give a sense of direction.

I'll be in bed.....so it can please itself, and I'll pick up the action next week

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I missed the pictures for this one but here is their comment

Posted On: Fri, 01 Aug 2008 19:33:49 GMT
USDCAD
Last Price: 1.0433
Support: 1.0399, 1.0263, 1.0215, 1.0136
Resistance: 1.0512, 1.0567, 1.0654, 1.0669

In the Coming Months:
The preferred wave count has prices soon to be in wave 5 down within wave (C). We can anticipate another sustained drive to new lows before a big three-wave decline from the 2002 peak will be complete. What that three-wave move will constitute is open to various possibilities, but once complete a sizable advance will be expected. It would take a move above 108.67 to argue that a lasting bottom has already formed.


In the coming Years:
[High Confidence]
Since that ten-year advance from 1991 represented the last leg of a larger five-wave sequence up from the 1958 low, the dollar/Canada appears to have topped long, long-term (i.e. for at least a few decades).

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The unexpected drop below all the cited support levels Thursday has forced a slight revision of the wave count to consider a good temporary top in place at last week's high. Thus prices are correcting the move up from the July 15 low and could fall a little further before bottoming. Prices have already reached the 38% retracement of that move and conceivably could work on down to the .618 retracement at 1.0263. The key question is, has the larger trend turned down or is there one more run to the upside to come? The evidence is unclear, so caution is warranted for now. The short-term trend can be considered down while the 1.0550 area holds, though a move above it would suggest that prices will make one more assault on the 1.0790 resistance level. If the 1.0263 level gives way it would lend credence to the alternate count that says wave 4 up is complete and that the long-term trend has turned down. We'll watch these level and take our cues from there

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short at 1.2595

[arco]

Peat

Whats making you go short - EW?

rgds - arco

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seems overextended.... should've taken the quick 50 it offered me tho....

its scary when arco questions my trade :o

maybe I should bail now when I can... but gone too far gone too fast kind of approach is where I'm at....

[arco]

Peat

its scary when arco questions my trade :o

That made me titter Peat, I was only wondering -
---------thought I might have missed something

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105 pips for breakfast

[arco]

You're on a roll Peat..................

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Longer term graphs here....

One chart shows the monthly since 1987 - a vicious decline from 2002's high of almost 1.6190 down to late 2007's low of just below 0.91

But 2009 has seen the recovery with levels now at 1.25 level being a 50% retracement. And since the daily chart is now showing a triangle formation which is a continuation pattern and often forms as a 'b' in an 'abc' correction perhaps this will resolve upwards for a final step in the dollars bounce back.

a strategy might be to buy the break of 1.27 here and go for 1.34 but after that build shorts especially if it goes to 1.45.