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Thread: USD.CAD

  1. #41
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Ok Xerof, I kept my shorts on ,
    and very pleased I did too.

    The previous days bearish Dark Cloud Cover candle,
    a Tweezer Top, and a number of other factors pointed
    to a low risk entry.

    Wing your way south if you please.



    arco







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  2. #42
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    arco
    I get an initial target of around 1.2500
    fit with anything you have?
    Cheers
    Slam

  3. #43
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    AAAh, wonderful....position, attire and graphics


  4. #44
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    exit short at 1.2570 for +65

    It helps defray the cost of my recent "Pounding" [B)]


  5. #45
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Slam

    There are a number of possibilities IMO.
    Next Gann level is circa 2451.

    Short 2695 + 125

    arco






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  6. #46
    Senior Member slam's Avatar
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    arco

    Will have a look at my charts again
    Thanks for the reply

    Cheers
    Slam

  7. #47
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Still moving in the right direction +118

    Minor Gann support around here to be
    broken @ 2573

    arco





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  8. #48
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    FWIW

    Just received this info from a broker

    JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR - The Canada dollar bounced off the center line and traded higher as it approached Tuesday's reversal date. I look for the market to hit resistance and trade lower into the EOC (End of Cycle) reversal date due on May 27. A drop into this date could set up a significant buying opportunity.

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  9. #49
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    I closed my USD/CAD short at 26.40 for +40 late last night.....

    Only to wake up this morning to find it fell off the cliff for another 100+ a few hours later Arrrrg!

    Me thinks it's time for me to learn more about resistance/support levels.


  10. #50
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Its those Butterflies again

    quote:It looks like one small Butterfly may have
    completed (forming Leg EW5), so we could see
    some form of reversal here. A very large Gartley
    appears to be also on its last legs.
    Short 2695 now +153




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  11. #51
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    The action has come up against the uptrend line and
    is deciding where it should go next. Watching red
    paint dry at the moment.

    Still short +166

    arco





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  12. #52
    Guru Xerof's Avatar
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    Interesting cross currents here - CAD has gone against recent trends elsewhere - just been informed there's been a huge sell order going on for the past few days in EUR/CAD, and apparently still there today


    So there you go - yet another non-USD pairing in the mix, along with EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP..no wonder EUR/USD got hammered

    Xerof


  13. #53
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Still short....... +241 at close

    Expecting some support could come in
    around a Gann level at 1.2451 (mentioned 20/5)
    O/n low was 2448 - thats pretty close.



    Now, if you fancy a read over coffee...........

    Wed Jun 1 11:51:00 2005(EST)
    * 01 Jun 05: 16:50(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD has confounded the market once again, more to come

    CAD has caught the market on the hop. While the fundamental picture for the Canadian economy is not overwhelming, there is still a strong probability that the BoC will be raising rates as early as this summer. In this regard, especially in the context of today's price action, Thu's speech by BoC Governor Dodge on 'Monetary Policy & the Exchange Rate' will be scrutinized closely. Factors that have combined with the fundamentally positive CAD story in the short term are dominated by the broad based purge of EUR positions in the wake of the French referendum and the ongoing reports of soft data out of Europe. CAD is getting more attractive by the minute, especially after the sour news from the US ISM report today. Besides the fundamentals, M&A activity has been highlighted. China's Minmetals announced on Tue it was still interested in Noranda. Later on Tue, TIW reported the completion of a sale of one of its assets to Vodafone for an estimated USD3.5 bln, proceeds of which will be distributed to shareholders 'pursuant to a court-supervised Plan of Arrangement'. CAD may give back a bit of today's gains, but that will be seen as a buying opportunity by those that feel left behind...again.


    * 01 Jun 05: 15:03(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, USD/CHF Flows - Asymetric reaction to ISM.

    It's been that sort of market! The manufacturing ISM number at 51.4 was certainly lower than the market expectation of 52.3, from the April number at 53.3. However, the reaction could have been expected to be skewed slightly, with a bigger number likely to have seen a bigger market reaction. If EUR/USD does struggle back to 1.2300, then expect more selling. For the rest of it - the big data-point approaches with Friday's non-farm payroll. C.F.


    * 01 Jun 05: 14:53(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - EUR/CAD sellers forced to late 2003 levels

    CAD has confounded the market. USD/CAD was set to range trade, leaving EUR/CAD to extend its tendency to move to new lows. The price action that followed the latest purge of EUR longs may have started with a US money center bank pushing EUR/JPY through 133.00 to intraday lows of 132.70-75. But, once EUR/CAD sellers found bids hard to find, prices spiralled lower, catching the market off guard. Today's intraday low of 1.5268 has not been seen since Nov 2003 and the lows have not been seen yet. EUR/CAD support is difficult to uncover, but 1.5014 and then 1.4890 are two levels that cannot be ignored. CAD price action may have been sparked by the unlikely purge of EUR/JPY, but once it took hold, EUR/CAD was dictating direction for USD/CAD, where today's intraday low of 1.2470 is still in the middle of May's trading range. US ISM data will be the market's next test.


    * 01 Jun 05: 13:34(LDN) - NOW! USD/CAD, EUR/CAD Flows - CAD shodowing USD, watch for US data to lead the way

    CAD has attached itself to the USD and refuses to move significantly in either direction in USD/CAD terms. Attaching itself to USD has help to extend the trend toward lower prices in EUR/CAD and there is little to suggest the trend is close to a bottom. US data will set the tone for both currencies with today's ISM report next. Technically, look for USD/CAD to range trade with support seen at 1.2525 and resistance up at 1.2590. EUR/CAD will be shadowing EUR/USD, with momentum likely to stall for a while before picking up again to explore new lows.

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  14. #54
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Remaining short.... +255 at close.

    Trailing a tight stop now.





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  15. #55
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    A couple of Butterfly target zones
    loom ahead circa 2150=2300 with possible
    Gann support levels in the same area
    at 2329 Minor/2207 Major.


    Short from 2695 - Currently + 344



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  16. #56
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    Still heading into the target zones
    and towards the Gan support levels.

    Short from 2695 - Currently +406 at Fri close



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  17. #57
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    Still creeping down slowly.......

    CAD appears to be out of the Bear Flag which
    looks like good news but Mrs Gann at 2207 is
    holding up progress.


    Short from 2695 - Currently +411 at Wed close.







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  18. #58
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    Arco, you should find this site of interest. Types as he talks I guess, but look down the page for his VERY BEARISH views on USD/CAD. He seems to be relying on "History repeats", but my advice would be to listen to SplitENZ

    quote:History never repeats
    I tell myself before I go to sleep
    And there's a light shining in the dark
    Leading me on towards a change of heart
    http://makoml.blogs.com/blog/

    No hidden meanings

    cheers

    Xerof

  19. #59
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi Xerof

    Yes, thats an interesting blog.

    Late confirmation on that Cad short, considering
    we have been bearish from away back when.

    He obviously needs to read ST everyday for a few good
    tips from the 'A' team who really know how to grasp
    a Butterfly net.

    Anyway, back to feed the Monarchs. They take alot
    of looking after. Plus Mrs Gann is moaning......again!






    ............that hubby is away too much.

    arco









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  20. #60
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Hi Xerof

    And on an aside re Split Enz.

    'True colours' was one of my all time favourite albums.
    In fact I wore the tape out. - Now have the CD.
    (Not that History Repeats was on that album,
    but it is definately one of their best IMO.

    arco

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