Final bullet into a dropping property bull?

[Dazza]

nel

blenhiem?

i believe we have spoken be4

u have lived in wanganui be4 so u know the area

but blenhiem?

u brought the houses without looking or?

[nelehdine]

I live 8km out of Blenheim , surrounded by vineyards with the best climate in NZ ... not a bad life !!

[CJ]

quote:Originally posted by nelehdine

Iv'e bgt 6 rentals in the last eight weeks, 4 in Wanganui, 2 in Blenheim. Looking to add another 6 in the next 12 months. Will be patient and look to buy at 5-10% below asking price. TradeMe is great in that it tells you how long the property has been listed. Minimum rental yield I will accept is around 6% . Looking to hold for a minimum of 5 years to catch the next interest rate cycle, have fixed all mortgages for 2 years at 8.60%

These properties are obviously cashflow negative. Are you using the losses to offset other profits. If so, how would ring fencing of property losses affect you?

Do you think house prices will go down? If so, why dont you wait to make purchases.

[tricha]

Oh Nedehdine - "live 8km out of Blenheim , surrounded by vineyards with the best climate in NZ ... not a bad life !!"

Obviously u havn't heard or been to Mapua []

Amazing what another day can bring trackers

NZ house prices fall - REINZ
5:05PM Wednesday July 11, 2007


Real Estate
'Tale of two markets' confusing property buffs
House sales start slowing as interest rates kick in
The national median house price dropped by at least $2500 in June, according to latest figures from the Real Estate Institute.


The drop follows an increase of $45,000 over the last year.

The national median price dropped from $350,000 in May to $347,500 in June, the figures show.

Real Estate Institute president Murray Cleland said the residential market had "cooled its heels".

Mr Cleland put the fall down to cold weather and high interest rates.

He said he believed Reserve Bank governor Allan Bollard would be happy with the figures but that they were unlikely to change the Official Cash Rate.

"We're in a period of wait and see," Mr Cleland said.

He said it was normal for a drop off to occur over the winter months.

The institute has tightened its reporting deadlines for collecting sales figures and Mr Cleland said this may have affected the number of sales by up to 8 per cent, or 600 sales.

But Mr Cleland it had not affected the median prices and there was no doubt the market was pulling back.


Advertisement
AdvertisementThe institute's figures differ from those of Quotable Value, which put the national median price at $378,672 in June.

But Mr Cleland said the institute's figures were based on unconditional sales, whereas other figures were based on property settlements, effectively making them six weeks out of date.

There had been falls across seven of the 12 national regions surveyed, he said.

It is not known if the new figures are likely to have an impact on interest rates.

A Reserve Bank spokeswoman said the bank did not comment "mid cycle".

She said the next Official Cash Rate would be reviewed on July 26.

Regional breakdown

Auckland Region: $450,000 in May down to 445,000 in June.
Metropolitan Auckland: $451,000 in May to 450,000 in June.
North Shore: $535,000 in May to 539,000 in June.
Auckland City: 492,000 in May to 495,000 in June.


The Regions, from May to June:
Northland: From $330,000, down to $315,000.
Waikato and the Bay of Plenty: Up from 315,000, to $325,000.
Hawkes Bay: Down from $277,000, to $268,100
Manawatu and Wanganui: Up from 222,000, to $248,000
Taranaki: Down from $281,000, to $265,000
Wellington: From $385,000, to $375,000
Nelson and Marlborough: Up from $328,000 to $335,000
Christchurch steady at $330,000
Otago: Down from $240,000, to $230,000
Southland: Up from $177,000, to $177,750.

[nelehdine]

We visit Nelson quite often in the summer , easy to have a day out at Rabbit Island with lunch at the cafe on Mapua Wharf ... v nice.

[tricha]

We might just catch up with u there one day [8D]

[Sideshow Bob]

Hmmmmm.......


Homes now more out of reach
NZPA | Thursday, 19 July 2007

Rising interest rates mean the more than 80 per cent of the average pay cheque is needed to pay a mortgage on an average house.


Interest.co.nz's home loan affordability index worsened in June to 81.2 per cent of pay needed to repay a standard mortgage, up from 79.4 per cent in May and well above the 68.2 per cent of income a year earlier.

Five years ago, it took 45.3 per cent of take-home pay for a weekly mortgage payment on a median house.

While weekly pay rose $28.79 in the past year, that has failed to match the rise in weekly mortgage payments for a median-priced house of $107.12, publisher David Chaston said.

Benchmark interest rates for a two-year fixed mortgage rose 31 basis points over the month to 9.22 per cent in June, as the latest Reserve Bank Official Cash Rate rise to 8.00 per cent took effect.

Most economists polled by Reuters expect the Reserve Bank to raise rates next week for a fourth consecutive time, to 8.25 per cent, as it tries to dampen inflation pressures, particularly in the housing market.

Median house prices fell 0.7 per cent to $347,500 in June, but were up 12 per cent on a year earlier.

The most affordable region was Southland at 43.4 per cent of the average pay, against the benchmark for affordability of 40 per cent. Auckland was the most unaffordable region at 104.1 per cent of income.

An average buyer would need to allocate 9.9 years of their current annual income to afford a median-priced house, up from 9.3 years in June 2006, Mr Chaston said.

"We seem stuck with an affordability crisis for a very long time unless major public policy changes are made," he said.

"Urgent actions attacking housing supply inhibitors and new-build rates are required."

The index was based on individual pay, but the reality was that most buyers relied on more than one income to buy a mortgage, Mr Chaston said. It assumed a 20 per cent deposit.

[Arbitrage]

If it is an "affordability crisis" and he recommends public policy intervention, he could also consider letting the market do the work. Especially if no one can afford property then the price must fall as demand drops.

[Arbitrage]

Dollar down tho, at least at the moment!!

[Stranger_Danger]

From http://www.stuff.co.nz/4145122a13.html

Such arguments don't wash with property's believers. "I don't care what the economists say," says Trass. "House values will double in the next 10 years. There's no way they can't double. Ten years ago you could buy a villa in Mt Eden (Auckland) for $300,000. Today, what can you buy there for $600,000?"

I honestly don't know where to start with that statement.

*shakes head*

Such predictions seem to assume that the future price of houses is completely unrelated to incomes.

If the same person said

"10 years ago the average person was making $15 an hour. Today they're making $30 an hour. In 10 years, they'll definitely be making $60 an hour"

then that is a different story (and not as pleasant a story as it seems on the surface, by the way!!). But no one is saying that.

Also, to "project out" the gains we've had over the last 10 years to the next 10, you have to "project out" an increase in the appetite for financing risk. What is next, sub-sub-sub prime? 150% mortgages?