Xro - xero

[zs_cecil]

Sorry, I was thinking this is the SNK thread!

10x XRO would mean 1.17B shares. Maybe a 5 for 1?

I wasn`t paying attention to the correct share numbers either.

[Toasty]

$14 up. Not sure that the $1 increments are the right way to look at this now... Maybe every $5 I will get excited. Yes, dangerous thinking I know.

The trouble with the latest run on certain stocks (DIL, XRO, RYM etc) is that it ruins the appeal of more traditional slower moving success stories. For me anyway. I know one shouldn't hang out for get rich quick stories but every so often it seems to actually happen...

[Toasty]

If it went to $5 I would probably have a heart attack

[JohnnyTheHorse]

$14 up. Not sure that the $1 increments are the right way to look at this now... Maybe every $5 I will get excited. Yes, dangerous thinking I know.

The trouble with the latest run on certain stocks (DIL, XRO, RYM etc) is that it ruins the appeal of more traditional slower moving success stories. For me anyway. I know one shouldn't hang out for get rich quick stories but every so often it seems to actually happen...

Don't get too excited. Some of the talk on this thread is clearly bubble and irrational exuberance talk. This stock is way out of control. People are being blinded by the price increases and haven't stopped to look at the fundamentals. Take a look:

Revenue (Year ended March 2013: NZ$39 Mil
Market Cap: ~$1.65 Billion

Price/Sale Ratio = 42

What is wrong with a P/S of 42 you say? Everything. Although it's a bit chalk and cheese, DIL is sitting on a P/S of around 13. A high growth stock like Xero can have a P/S of up to around 20 before it starts getting considered outrageously priced.

At these prices, avoid this stock like the plague. You will get burned. When this bull market comes to an end (an it will), massively overpriced stocks like Xero are going to get hit very hard. And just because there's all this talk of money coming in from US investors doesn't mean it is smart money. Big institutions from the US get irraional during bull markets like this too...

[Toasty]

Don't get too excited. Some of the talk on this thread is clearly bubble and irrational exuberance talk. This stock is way out of control. People are being blinded by the price increases and haven't stopped to look at the fundamentals. .

Point taken, but I have never stopped being paranoid about the price on this one. Everything about its meteoric rise sets off alarm bells. But every so often its nice just to watch it happen. I think most of the commentators here see the risk but whether the wider market does...? Who knows...

Sparky. If I had a cat it would be stuffed to the gills on caviar and champagne( or whatever it is cats eat) with the profits that I have booked. Still got a chunk riding though so it would be nice to keep that as well. The NTL that Moosie made me buy is not exactly keeping me in the lifestyle that XRO made me accustomed to...

[Dentie]

Point taken, but I have never stopped being paranoid about the price on this one. Everything about its meteoric rise sets off alarm bells. But every so often its nice just to watch it happen. I think most of the commentators here see the risk but whether the wider market does...? Who knows...

Sparky. If I had a cat it would be stuffed to the gills on caviar and champagne( or whatever it is cats eat) with the profits that I have booked. Still got a chunk riding though so it would be nice to keep that as well. The NTL that Moosie made me buy is not exactly keeping me in the lifestyle that XRO made me accustomed to...

Toasty, can you help me with my ongoing education please...

My previous posts verify my humble analysis (Fudamental and technical) telling me that XRO's share price (5 years to get to $7 and then 5 months for the last $7) is not being supported by any logical underlying assets or other intrinsic value .... unlike say, RYM. But I am obviously missing something.

Given it appears you have/had a stack of XRO (& my sincere congrats on that), can you whisper to me what gave you the confidence to buy & continue holding? How did you analyse this stock? I am a very keen learner in the stockmarket and would cherish some of your wisdom.

Thanks in anticipation

[Toasty]

and would cherish some of your wisdom.

I am counting on that being the first time that someone has said that to me without being sarcastic.

To be perfectly honest I really just bought into the whole story surrounding Xero and the fact that Rod has a solid track record with this sort of thing. I have met him and the thing that impressed me is that he has never doubted that he was going to be successful in any of his ventures. He is very focussed and is actually a nice guy in person. It is true though that he never misses an opportunity to get his view in. Which I support given that he is supporting his vision for his company. I don't believe though that there is any animosity here. He is simply playing the game as he sees it and everybody playing are big boys with resonably thick skin.

I panicked a bit in the early days but as the price came up I sold in small lots to get my initial investment back and get a bit of profit along the way and then a big bit recently at the mid $11's.

I just like the fact that it is a tangible offering (accounting software) and not too hard to understand, I don't get SNK at all for instance and it has a practicaly unlimited field to play in. SMEs, how big is this market.

I see it as incredibly risky especially as it seems to be driven by emotion and pretty much unmeasurable by any market standard but if a NASDAQ listing comes into play at some point who knows where it might go.

No wisdom here just a big chunk of luck to be fair. Hope that helps.

[winner69]

Following on from hoops fund managers chats over drinks -


Jeez that XRO done well for us lately

Yes haven't they .... didn't have a clue who they were or what they did until the got into the 50 and we had to buy some

Yep me too .... couldn't afford to be out of step with the market could we

Doesn't seem right holding so many when they don't even make a profit

And heck they are priced at 20 times sales

Buit just as well for indices otherwise we would have missed out - at least our investors think we are pretty smart

Way its going up at the next reweighting will have to buy even more .... heck even more invested in a loss making venture

One of early mentors said never never never speculate with other peoples money on a dream of one person but I keep telling myself the times have changed

Just as well for the index eh .... gives you a chance to do a bit of speculation eh

Yep - if it wasn't in the index mandate would not have allowed me to buy XRO

Easy game this looking after peoples money eh .... hardest part of the job is convincing people we are gurus

What sort of car you going to upgrade with this years bonus

Sipping champagne at the French Café over lunch

'That XRO going great guns still. Be in the Top 10 soon"

'Yep I had to buy some more as was afraid I wouldn't be matching the index'

"Heck that last report aid they will never make any money .... what are we gurus meant to do .... buy more of course'

'Did you know that Joe couldn't buy for the Kiwisaver Fund he manages .... mandated not to speculate on loss making companies and one mans dream'

He a loser that Joe ... probably slaving away over his quant models trying to get that bit alpha'

And here are we, gurus together, lapping it up and planning to spend our big bonus's this year buying thiongs like XRO because they are in the index'

'At this rate they be bigger than that #1 contender Ryman and maybe as big as Fletchers - at least we will able to say I told you so. We are guru's eh"

What does this XRO really do anyway mate'

'Cheers ... another bottle please Simon (Wright) and make sure you get some more in for next week'

[Beagle]

Bigger fool theory, never seen a finer example. Zero profits, excuse the pun and Zero chance of other competitiors not moving in on this cloud accounting if indeed it ever proves to be a profitable venture.

There will be tears, my 2 cents.

[icekiwi]

well, I feel a bit foolish having completely sold out at the 10.xx mark. Probably should have sold down in chunks.