Xro - xero

[Newman]

The SP spiked soon after the cash flow anouncement (up $1 from memory). I dont think it was that which sent the SP down in the end.

The announcement on 19/4/2013 says "Based on current client demand for cloud-based accounting solutions, Deloitte
expect that by the end of its financial year approximately 2,000 ledgers will have been migrated to Xero's platform alone."

The financial year of Deloitte ends on May 31. If in the 42 days from April 19 2000 clients can be added from Deloitte alone it would be great. 2000*$500 p.a. = $1 m.

Today XERO said a revenue of $100m could be achieved in 2 years.

[Banksie]

If you and your friend are being chased by a rabid moose, don't worry about out-running the moose, just worry about out-running your friend

Have you see this moosie http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJNR2EpS0jw one of the dumb ways to die is dressing up like a moose in hunting season - lol.

[RazorX]

Markets certainly fall faster than they rise. It took 30 days to gain $4.50 and less than two to lose $2.50 +. No real support but the SP has previously consolidated at $10.50, $7.50, $5, and $2.50 - maybe one of these could be a target? Haven't checked the fib levels but it would be interesting to see if anything lines up.

[Toasty]

Its seems to be holding ok between 12:10 and 12:60. In a bouncy kind of way. Any thoughts on tomorrow?

[Snow Leopard]

...Any thoughts on tomorrow?

TGIF

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Snow Leopard]

The Jim Cramer (ex US fund manager and now Mad Money host) once said "Three days of selling, then BUY".

If there is three days of near 10% drops, then look to technicals like RSI to suggest Xero is oversold.

I will be watching Diligent closely for the same reasons.

Given the recovery from the day's low today I would be extremely careful with this one, it doesn't smell right for the J. Cramer way to millions.

DIL is still on as a reasonable bet for next week.

But tomorrow is another day.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Toasty]

Given the recovery from the day's low today I would be extremely careful with this one, it doesn't smell right for the J. Cramer way to millions.

DIL is still on as a reasonable bet for next week.

But tomorrow is another day.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

How do you mean PT? Do you think it might be the calm before the big fall?

[Snow Leopard]

I did not phrase that last post at all well.

Rapid fall to $11.50 (definite support level eh?) in the first 1.5 hours and then the rest of the day on a steady climb to $12.50.
There are some people with money out there who really believe Xero is worth this sort of price.

A sensible thing now would be for it to hang around this area for a while.

But you never know when the market is going to get properly spooked.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[neopoleII]

""which doubled revenue to $39 million in its last full year but is reinvesting for growth and is yet to turn a profit - at $1.5 billion.""

so if they get revenue of a 100 mil does that mean a stock value of 4 billion?
or revenue of 300 million like a good sized medium nzx company does that mean 12 billion?

seem to me something is wrong.
and if these states are correct...... what sort of divi payment would one expect from a 12 billion dollar company with 300 million turn over?

i guess my NZO shares are rather sad compared to this sharemarket darling

[Hoop]

The Jim Cramer (ex US fund manager and now Mad Money host) once said "Three days of selling, then BUY".

If there is three days of near 10% drops, then look to technicals like RSI to suggest Xero is oversold.

I will be watching Diligent closely for the same reasons.

Paper Tiger....
Whats RSI got to do with it

Its a TA Oscillator.. PT

With steep trending volatile shares such as Mining shares and XRO... the share climbs steeply into the stratosphere where there is no historic Support or Resistance guidelines..Its pedal to the metal and racing at maximum redline revs so most TA indicators are useless as well. Like all engines revving at the redline something has to give eventually and it is usually sudden without warning....Usually survival instincts are heightened and the investors sense this can't last much longer and when it does and keeps going up so does investor anxiety...so it makes sense to look for TA indicators that measure investor trading anxieties.. Oscillators do this but I already know the anxiety exists because I can feel it, so what the point of Oscillators? ..What I want is a warning system to get out in time....sadly I can't help as I stay well clear of entering into a very steep trending type shares...I try to get in early or not at all....so sadly (again) I miss out on many of these stocks...

There are some people on Sharetrader who perfect the art of timing with Aussi miners they would be the people that should post here as they would have the most useful information....Trading in the likes of XRO at this stage requires expertise not greed.

Back to TA oscillators ... Many commentators view the Chaikin Oscillator as a good divergence warning system and it diverged with XRO but I find it cries wolf far too many times to be taken seriously during steep trends.
My favourite Oscillator is the DMI which showed the signal line went from steep rise to plateau a month ago indicating that the steep share climb had no current trend foundation. A month ago XRO was at $11.00 I've got no idea if this means anything or not but it just happens that there is a chart support at this level.

XRO bought back memories from years ago down at the pub..I had this chat with this hardcase chap who invested mostly in Aussi mining stock and I remembered him twisting this old saying around.......the noise of a sparrow fart at the crack of dawn is enough to send rabbits racing back to their burrows.