Xro - xero

[Iolite]

I've been watching the rise of Xero for the last few months with continued amazement.
As a beginner investor I am working my way through some classic books and all would say stay well clear of this stock, which I have done.

Reading through one book today (by a certain intelligent investor) I happened to come across these sentences and couldn't help but think of Xero:

"The speculative public is incorrigible. In financial terms it cannot count beyond 3. It will buy anything, at any price, if there seems to be some "action" in progress. It will fall for any company identified with "franchising", computers, electronics, science, technology, or what have you, when the particular fashion is raging."

I certainly don't claim to be experienced in investing and I'm not saying money cannot be made here, but it seems to me investors should tread very carefully - this stock is currently valued entirely on speculation.

[lastmoa]

...but because its cloud based services it must be right...fear of missing out is all that's left driving this astonishing rise...anyway I suppose I'd better do some real work.

Fair enough comments Roger.
Yes, people do tend to resist change when there is not a compelling enough reason to change. BUt with the movement to the Internet and the mobility (and other advantages it gives) this is compelling enough for many. Yes, Xero does have 1st mover advantage and is making the most of this, but you are correct. The main players are endeavoring to play catch up. Time will tell how it plays out but my money is with Xero on this one.
Goats are only worth $3000 a head when one can see where the $4000 a head price is going to come from. .dot com's could never answer that. imho.

[winner69]

Thanks. This is a momentum play, pure and simple and people have completly forgotten about fundamentals. I appreicate some big players backed the company very recently at $20, only time will tell if they're right and i was wrong at $13 and again since then but there is a serious amount of froth in this stock, surely any seasoned experienced investor remembers the tech bubble of 2000 / 2001 and can see it will will take many many years for this company to become even marginally profitable let alone earn a level of profit sufficient to justofy its present market capitalisation, which now exceeds Ryman, a company with arguably the most enviable growth record on the N.Z. market.




Its not hard to beat the MYOB system, easy pickings there. Clients fall into two distinct camps, those that will adopt new technology and those that are happy with the devil they know. Generally speaking people hate change. As stated above, there are many great systems out there and Xero don;t have the mortgage on all the good idea's nor is there really a good business moat around their systems and proceedures. You don't think other big software players will learn, adapt, change and improve their systems...
$4Billion market capitalisation for an accounting software company buring cash and making growing losses...really I thought I'd seen everything during the last tech bubble LOL Anyone old enough to remember when Goats were $3,000 a head ? I remember as a young accountant sitting down with a goat farming client and asking how he thought Goat prices at the time were justified...what is it that they produce that makes them worth $3,000 a head I asked...anyway sorry, I digress, .but because its cloud based services it must be right...fear of missing out is all that's left driving this astonishing rise...anyway I suppose I'd better do some real work.

How much are goats worth now?

Deer were pretty expensive back then as well weren't they?

[Beagle]

Fair enough comments Roger.
Yes, people do tend to resist change when there is not a compelling enough reason to change. BUt with the movement to the Internet and the mobility (and other advantages it gives) this is compelling enough for many. Yes, Xero does have 1st mover advantage and is making the most of this, but you are correct. The main players are endeavoring to play catch up. Time will tell how it plays out but my money is with Xero on this one.
Goats are only worth $3000 a head when one can see where the $4000 a head price is going to come from. .dot com's could never answer that. imho.

That client gave me a very puzzled look and a frown when I asked about the $3,000 goat price and then paused and reflected and then said, but they've been going up so fast it must be a good investment.

How much are goats worth now?

Deer were pretty expensive back then as well weren't they?

http://www.ird.govt.nz/technical-tax...lues-2013.html
There you go. Anyone who wants a lesson in what can happen to flavour of the month values can click on that link and yes, a lot of people lost their shirts by investing in Deer. I know a couple personally who lost everything and a big client that went under in a firm I used to work for.

People's lives have been changed by the incredible increase in XRO's price, which is great provided they realise its not a realised profit until its actually sold. If the company doesn't deliver really meaningful real profits in the due course of time many people's lives will be seriously affected the other way too and I've seen it all before. I guess the reason i was invited to comment was to try and put an old head on young shoulders in terms of adding some perspective to this tech stock, perhaps based on my long accounting career or length of time in the market or perhaps that member just wanted to sit back and enjoy the debate, who knows.
Unfortunatly its a well known truism that old heads cannot be put on young shoulders and people have to learn for themselves. Sorry but herein ends Psychology 101 lecture for today, gotta get some real work done and more than a couple of bill-able hours, which really is a pathetic effort for a whole day's "work" I would be the first to acknowledge the folly of expecting my favourite stock Summerset to go up every day , although I suspect some may well be taking that approach with a certain other stock.

[winner69]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

[JohnnyTheHorse]

She's taking another tumble! Bring up an intraday chart and you will see where the support is. $35, $34, $33 and then $30. Happy trading

[robbo24]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

Uh oh... All of the lay-people out there will be panicking. Especially after the "XERO IS APPLE" comments from yesterday.

The radio should have at least said "600m was added yesterday, it reached an all time high, then 600m was deducted accordingly..."

[baller18]

What a correlation between GEO and XRO...

[blackcap]

Just heard on radio that $600m has been wiped off the Xero market cap .... witht he emphasis on the word wiped like it is some catastrophe

Can't be right

That is ridiculous. This stock is only going up and cannot go down. It is impossible that it goes down. Xero is operating in a new paradigm and its product is so superior it cannot fail. This is just an aberration and we will see $40+ again. (very much tounge in cheek) Definitely one for those praying or with a lot of faith. And down another 50 cent. Boy what a load of swings today. From ecstasy to despair methinks for some.

[pierre]

Down to $34.50 - wonder if any of the goats that bought at $41 have sold out yet?

Discl: Long term holder at $6.30 - hanging on and enjoying the roller coaster ride.