Xro - xero

[winner69]

Not in bubble territory yet because I haven't heard of anyone mortgaging the house to buy ZRO shares yet

When that time comes then bubble territory .... extreme speculation snoopy ..... is upon us

Nobody here mortgaged their house yet have they

[blackcap]

there was that guy on the DIL thread who was going to sell all.... For those taking taxi's, are the taxi drivers starting to talk about stocks again? And at functions and family barbecues does the talk gravitate towards shares and "investing?"

[Casino]

!

XRO is a great example +3500% for many!

Yes, and therefore a lot of upside is already priced in that may never materialize. What is the upside that is not already reflected in the share price? Will Xero be a more profitable and bigger business than Intuit? Apple? Exxon?

I wouldn't bet on it given that growth in the US is sluggish in line with what Roger said:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/benkepes...eed-us-growth/

How long will 200 millions last if they need to acquire an (overpriced) tech company (potentially co-owned by Thiel ) to get traction in the US? Gaining market share in the US doesn't come cheap, especially if you are up against big profitable companies with long-standing relations to clients. Intuit has a P/E of 25 suggesting continuous growth. Yet that Xero will get a good chunk of Intuit's market seems to be a foregone conclusion judging by current market cap. This more than uncertain scenario is already anticipated. Is there any evidence suggesting that they will do better than optimists expect?

[baller18]

Everyone has their own valid points, and I agree a lot of "value" valuation techniques have gone out of the window for XRO. E.g EPS, cashflow and etc, etc.
Therefore, the risk for every individual is different due to their entry price.
Tummeric has a 3500% gain, whereas, someone else prob has a 100% gain or 50% gain.
The faster they rise, the harder they fall, so to say if a bad announcement was to come, their growth has declined, the person with the 100% gain, could prob be in negative territory, whereas, tummeric could still sell and make a 2000% gain or whatever...
Peter Lynch stated something on the lines of, "intelligent speculation is part of an investment strategy." Don't know how much weight he puts on it though. He was referring to the start of Amazon and etc...

[Casino]

Jeepers comparing them to Apple and Exon? Wow even the most optimistic are not doing that - you are keen

Good, this is healthy. We need to spell it out for new gambling addicts that Xero will not increase another 35 times! Some optimists believe that Xero could be worth ~twice as much in 5 years. This is based on an analysis by First NZ Capital who used the store sign of Credit Suisse...

In 5 years, Xero will likely not be profitable and potentially be out of cash even if they don't have to shell out for new acquisitions. It comes down to how much cash you have to burn to grow in the US. I think Xero's annualized losses are ~40 million and rising. 200 million in the bank are great but that won't last forever and additional capital raising could be unavoidable. So any stake of the company that you buy now could be diluted. At the same time, Intuit has close to 1 billion US$ in annual net profit to fight back Xero. Your heart may be with the guy who has 200 million taking on somebody who has 5 billion but that's not necessary where your money should be.

[skid]

Not in bubble territory yet because I haven't heard of anyone mortgaging the house to buy ZRO shares yet

When that time comes then bubble territory .... extreme speculation snoopy ..... is upon us

Nobody here mortgaged their house yet have they

Beg Pardon?--Your saying people have to be mortgaging their house for it to qualify as a bubble?

[Casino]

Can you point me to where people have suggested XRO will grow a further 35 times? I personally have not seen anyone suggesting that.

Nobody has stated that. But I can tell from the forum that a lot of people are new to this game and we must let them know about top-end limits that their investment can reach.

Also you didn't clarify your point/suggestion regarding Xero acquiring a company. Can you elaborate on that please? Cheers.

I don't know of specific targets. If Xero was more transparent about customer growth in the US we would know whether they could do it organically. What is worse? An accountant software company that can't or doesn't want to tell us how many customers they have in the US?

[Casino]

Re the acquisition thing, you seemed to be suggesting a company related to Thiel earlier, that was the company I was asking about?

No that was just me trying to be mean. I just want to point out that Thiel doesn't necessarily have to believe in the profitability of this company to see opportunities for himself.

I think they are transparent enough re US customer numbers. From my accounts we seem to get 2 updates per year at least, usually more. Do you want them to update monthly or something?

I don't expect this from a proven company with a proven business model. But I think it would be appropriate for a company that is so hard to value. What is the problem with reporting customer numbers? Wouldn't it be great advertisement to let us know how more and more in the US are using it? Is real-time reporting technically too difficult? Maybe they could install Intuit to help them with the accounting?

[Casino]

or wave accounting, which is free.

https://www.waveapps.com/

[skid]

This is not the only tech co to go parabolic --Twitter up 73%!!--this is getting a bit to close to the pre dot com crash for comfort IMHO
For some this could be an opportunity to bank some tremendous profits.
For those that hold,then at least read up on that slice of history.
Good luck to all,but...be careful out there guys.