Xro - xero

[Shore]

Or another barometer is that Xero is adding just as many customers per month as QBO is.. and QBO has been operating longer and has the benefit of a well known brand and giant company behind it... or did you skip that slide Casino?

[blackcap]

Seems the investor presentation has done wonders for the share price today. But in all seriousness, I do think at current pricing there are lofty expectations to achieve and if they do not achieve 100% + growth it could be a problem. If they do however it will support the share price at these levels.

[Casino]

Or another barometer is that Xero is adding just as many customers per month as QBO is.. and QBO has been operating longer and has the benefit of a well known brand and giant company behind it... or did you skip that slide Casino?

I skipped a lot of slides, which I found misrepresentative. This chart will definitely be an interesting one to revisit in 6-12 months. First of all, let's look at intuit. What do they do?

http://investors.intuit.com/files/do...ct%20Sheet.pdf

1. SMB (2 billion revenue)
2. Consumer tax (1.7 billion revenue)
3. ProTax (400 million revenue)

Xero doesn't do #2 and #3. So how much of #1 can we attribute to Intuits 20 billion dollar market cap if we had to carve it out? Let's make it 10 billion. SMB is fractured into Desktop (1.2 billion) and subscribers (800 million). Let's be generous and assign the subscriber side a market cap of 7 billion.

Xero reckons both are adding the same amount of customer every month. How can Xero have a value of >4 billion if they make accelerating losses, have less cash in the bank, grow slower outside the US, fewer subscribers and many many other things going against them?

[apac]

Again, I have no doubt Xero will succeed after looking at the investor presentation. Don't need to disclose my reasons, cause I'm sure there's counter arguments. Let's call it faith!

The share price today is just a tiny negligible drop in the long run. I'm betting my money on it

[Shore]

How can Xero have a value of >4 billion

Umm.. because the market says it is? It's not a question of "should Xero be worth 4 billion".. it's a fact. People.. some of them very smart.. see that the future of accounting lies with Xero.. not MYOB, or Sage.. or Intuit.

I skipped a lot of slides, which I found misrepresentative

I can understand - facts have an annoying tendency to reveal reality. Intuit are a legacy software company from another era who have been struggling with years to execute a cloud accounting offering and have, for all intents and purposes, failed miserably. With their brand, resources and clout they should have hit a home run but they were too scared to eat into their desktop revenue and instead put up a half-assed attempt. That was 10 years ago. Even after all this time they've clearly demonstrated they don't get it... their API is a dog, their downtime is chronic, and only after seeing Xero's success have they tried to emulate the partner channel methodology and copy it. Legacy desktop software is dead. Dead as a door nail.

[Casino]

The only counter argument that I can think of is that Microsoft could be interested in them. They phased out MS Money a while ago. Cloud accounting could be something they might be interested in. But that would be a lot of money for few customers in the wrong markets or a program that they could develop themselves. Ben Kepes dismisses that option:

http://diversity.net.nz/the-xero-share-price-one-pundits-analysis/2013/03/27/

[Casino]

How come NZX doesn't show a volume for yesterday? We had over 8 million by trading end and an additional 10 million worth that changed hands in after hours trading. No transcript. No media commenting on a 7.5% drop of one of NZ's biggest companies. CEO isn't tweeting for a change. Great times for retail investors.

[Copper]

How come NZX doesn't show a volume for yesterday? We had over 8 million by trading end and an additional 10 million worth that changed hands in after hours trading. No transcript. No media commenting on a 7.5% drop of one of NZ's biggest companies. CEO isn't tweeting for a change. Great times for retail investors.

Havent followed thru but is this all to do with the rebalancing of the MSCI index that has played havoc with some shares including the greatest days trading on the NZX as I see in the news....

[SirPrize]

http://pubacct.org.au/xero-barriers/

And here's Rod talking about improvements that could be made on linkedin.

http://blog.xero.com/2013/11/fix-linkedin/

What. A. Champ.

[Casino]

Havent followed thru but is this all to do with the rebalancing of the MSCI index that has played havoc with some shares including the greatest days trading on the NZX as I see in the news....

I'm really not that impressed with the NZX. To see that big investors sell a big parcel after being briefed could be a vital piece of information that people need access to. A lot of things need to change if you want the public to invest in shares instead of the real estate market. Of course the deck will always be stacked against retail investors but at least make an effort to provide everyone with the same information. Investors need to be more demanding and not invest unless companies provide a webcast/transcript of analyst calls. Look at all the smack talk in annual reports, which is no comparison to how 10-k forms are done in the US. Xero was really excited when Intuit explicitly mentioned them in theirs but it's a formal requirement:

http://www.nbr.co.nz/opinion/xeros-u...ll-red-flag-CK