Xro - xero

[winner69]

It is useful to have a look at the chart of xro, going back to jan 2012,till it got to $45,the fibonachi retracement on that upward trend is now at exactly 61.8,hopefully for all you holders this will be the turning point,but i guess we will see.
i think this company has a long way to go yet (upward),this is mearly a correction in a longer term trend imop.

You are so right with you Fibs

But Jan 12 seems a rather odd time to use as a base for such calculations

I'd prefer to look at the start of the big move a year ago when all that money was pumped in - around $18.15

Whoops nearly 100% retracement then - and Mr Fibonacci bless his sole did mention 100% in his thinking.

[Valuegrowth]

Now Xero is trading below $20. Tech stocks are falling amid a broad selloff in tech stocks.

[skid]

It is impressive. Over 80% growth again and it hasn't even taken off in its growth market. They are not afraid to try new things but will quickly fix them if they go wrong.

The investment decision is a different question. It obviously got ahead of itself at $40 but a price of $20 doesn't make it a failure. - the only failure is the gamblers who 'invested' at $40.

The market isn't always right. My 'guess' is $20 is probably fair value at the moment but I am a bit more optimistic on the U.S. market. Having said that, I won't be adding to my small investment till I see a turn around in investor sentiment - hopefully they will overshot on the downside and I will pick some more up cheap to recapture some of my current paperloss.

As a comparible - look at FBU. It got as high as $10, went down to $5 and is now higher again. A good business, impacted by short term factors which swings investor sentiment.

If $20 is your fair value estimate ,you may well get your chance to pick up some for cheap on Monday--until the next DOW session we wont know if the dust has settled yet though.

[barleeni]

In the article below it mentions that there are about circa $150 million worth of shares which have been on lock down for a while, with the holders being freed to sell from this coming Thursday. Any thoughts on market impact? will all of these flood the market and perhaps drive the SP lower? (similar to SLI?)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ts-pat-on-back

[couta1]

In the article below it mentions that there are about circa $150 million worth of shares which have been on lock down for a while, with the holders being freed to sell from this coming Thursday. Any thoughts on market impact? will all of these flood the market and perhaps drive the SP lower? (similar to SLI?)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...ts-pat-on-back

I'm guessing most holding will be in for the long haul and won't be as fickle as the stock knocking club and on the flip side for every big seller there must be a big buyer and no big buyer is going to waste millions unless they have a very good chance of making some good profit and would only buy if they believe the company will succeed and the share price will climb in the future, you would need to be extremely bold to short the stock at its current price levels.

[BFG]

Unfortunately, for every action there is an equal opposite reaction. Concordantly, as the stock vastly overshot, the stock will now vastly undershoot. As most stocks usually "take the stairs up and the elevator down", bubble stocks usually do the opposite (as per investor sentiment). Unfortunately, a confluence of events has afforded itself here whereby the company has vastly underperformed investor sentiment for its target market, the macro environment is beginning to tank, foreign money is flowing home and a large amount of shares are coming out of lockup.

Therefore, this weekend I suggest some light reading via A Random Walk Down Wall Street and a healthy viewing of The Perfect Storm on DVD or Blu-Ray.

[couta1]

Yes BFG I've watched The Perfect Storm a few times great film and I love the grit those guys showed, my question would be with this perfect storm forming who is going to buy this large amount of shares coming off lockdown (Assuming those holders wish to sell) ???

[BFG]

Yes BFG I've watched The Perfect Storm a few times great film and I love the grit those guys showed, my question would be with this perfect storm forming who is going to buy this large amount of shares coming off lockdown (Assuming those holders wish to sell) ???

"The market is a wealth transfer system from the impatient to the patient."

Timing also helps in this endeavour as well

[Casino]

Timing also helps in this endeavour as well

True. Can you imagine people suggesting $42 being a huge bargain

[Casino]

Something that hasn't been discussed is the seasonality of the US market. 4000 in the last half doesn't compare well to 8000 in the previous. Then again it may not be surprising given that most businesses switch at the start of the year.
Also, Thiel/Matrix must have large parcels from earlier investments that have been out of escrow for a long time. This is not a recommendation to sell/hold/buy. Just something to consider before panicking.