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Thread: Xro - xero

  1. #4821
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hey NG thanks for your post the other day and I'm putting my hand up to being one having very little business acumen when it comes to Xero just a stubborn belief that they can achieve what they set out to do plus I was told I would never achieve certain things in life which I did against substantial odds so I'm behind Rod all the way.
    Mate I tried my best to give you a reality check when I was down your way at the SUM ASM on 30 April when they were $31.
    What I learned a long time ago in my profession is you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink so there's no point losing sleep when it doesn't.
    I feel sad for you and others that are sitting on ever increasing and in some cases really massive losses in the mistaken belief that this guy is a messiah of all solutions to accounting software and given enough time you'll eradicate those losses and make massive profits instead. Its just software mate, one of many different types out there. There's nothing magical about it, the code contained therein doesn't eradicate cancer or Ebola.
    Biggest load of BS hype I can ever recall in my 30 years plus investing on the NZX.

  2. #4822
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    Thumbs up Short and simple

    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    ...in the mistaken belief that this guy is a messiah of all solutions to accounting software...


    Best Wishes
    Paper Tiger
    om mani peme hum

  3. #4823
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    Hahaha magic. So the thread has finally evolved to the point of Monty Python clips!

  4. #4824
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Biggest load of BS hype I can ever recall in my 30 years plus investing on the NZX.
    While it may never again be worth $45, I think that saying that it is "the biggest load of BS" you've seen in 30 years is over egging it slightly. This is a company that has 371,000 customers. It has been growing at 80% for several years. They have more income from outside NZ than inside NZ.

    Sure the $11 million per month in revenue and non-existent profit need work but there is definitely something more than BS going on at Xero.

    Remember 1987? Remember Equiticorp? There was a lot of BS and a lot of hype there.

    Remember TranzRail? Remember the BNZ collapse? Remember the Air NZ fiasco with Ansett? Remember Feltex? Similar story.

    The Xero bubble of 2014 might have got a fair way ahead of itself, but there does seem to be a real business under all the hype, there doesn't seem to be anything illegal going on and the product seems to be pretty decent.

    I've been saying all along that Xero is very hard to value. It all depends on how many users they can attract in the next few years. Will the 80% growth stop this year, or in 5 years. That makes a huge difference.

    $45 was pricing in more than 4 years of 80% growth. Current price is still factoring in about 2½ years of growth. They've still got a big job to do to justify the current SP but they are getting closer by the day.

    Hype is pretty important for growing a business at this scale. It's a bit of free marketing for them. But there is actually a real product behind the hype.

  5. #4825
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    Quote Originally Posted by NewGuy View Post
    If I had to guess, I'd put their odds of success in the states - generously - at (say) 1 in 5.
    How do you define success?

    An interesting fact I saw the other day - Intuit may have 80% market share but 80% of SME dont use accounting software. I assume they either use pen, excel or their accountant. That is why Xero has targeted accountants and H&R Block ( the company that does tax returns for 80% of American companies).

    NOte: As with all statistics, they may or may not be made up.

  6. #4826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Its just software mate, one of many different types out there. There's nothing magical about it, the code contained therein doesn't eradicate cancer or Ebola.
    Biggest load of BS hype I can ever recall in my 30 years plus investing on the NZX.
    Roger, you could say almost exactly the same thing about Apple's iPhone.

  7. #4827
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    MickeybycrickeyYeah I remember all that crap, fair comment that there's nothing illegal going on. Time will tell but there's not even the slightest hint that losses are slowing as the company grows.
    The way the guy has won business awards before the company even turns a single cent positive EPS to me is somewhat disingenuous.
    Aren't awards normally handed out to business's that actually make money and have proven they are successful...just a thought.

    Goldstein - How so ? Apple are a hugely successful highly profitable strongly growing company trading on a very realistic PE multiple of real earnings.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-10-2014 at 05:33 PM.

  8. #4828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post

    Goldstein - How so ? Apple are a hugely successful highly profitable strongly growing company trading on a very realistic PE multiple of real earnings.
    I was referring to your quote "Its just software mate, one of many different types out there. There's nothing magical about it, the code contained therein doesn't eradicate cancer or Ebola. Biggest load of BS hype I can ever recall in my 30 years plus investing on the NZX."

    Likewise, the iPhone is just a smart phone, one of many different types out there. There's nothing magical about it, the code contained therein doesn't eradicate cancer or Ebola...

    Apple have made an appealing product. Question is, have Xero? From what I've heard they have, and that's what Thiel and co were betting on.

    Disc: Not a Xero holder
    Last edited by Goldstein; 16-10-2014 at 05:42 PM.

  9. #4829
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    Quote Originally Posted by KW View Post
    You can. And thats why Apple is getting its ass kicked. Just because something is pretty, or first to market, doesnt mean it will ultimately win that market.

    "The fact that Samsung stands atop the global smartphone heap isn’t new information, but the sheer volume of smartphones the Korean company has shipped so far this year is staggering. With the Galaxy S5 just beginning to ship, Samsung’s total shipment volume for the first quarter of the year came to 85 million smartphone units, more than the next four competitors — Apple AAPL -1.25%, Huawei, Lenovo and LG — combined."
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack...istant-second/
    Yeah the fact that Samsung is kicking arse is old news but I took Goldsteins comment to infer that Apple is a load of BS hype like XRO.
    I should have brought some a few years ago at $200 but my broker at the time talked me out of it, that's Forsyth Barr for you. ($100 bucks now after the seven for 1 share split)

    PS Okay I see what you're getting at Goldstein.
    Last edited by Beagle; 16-10-2014 at 05:58 PM.

  10. #4830
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    MickeybycrickeyYeah I remember all that crap, fair comment that there's nothing illegal going on. Time will tell but there's not even the slightest hint that losses are slowing as the company grows.
    The way the guy has won business awards before the company even turns a single cent positive EPS to me is somewhat disingenuous.
    Aren't awards normally handed out to business's that actually make money and have proven they are successful...just a thought.
    In all fairness, Xero has achieved a lot with a lot less compared to competitors. They have also forced Intuit, MYOB, etc to rethink and develop an open API, which has created business opportunities for others like Vend. They deserve recognition for that. An award isn't being beyond reproach though.

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