Xro - xero

[Beagle]

Very testing alright but I'll stick with the ship until the end where ever that ends up .

If the price keeps tanking at a great rate of knots the company's name could end up looking like an "unfortunate" choice, hopefully not a prophetic one in terms of the SP end game.

[Harvey Specter]

.
Drury not worried about the SP. He's made his millions already and has more than enough and there's the fat salary and excellent perks to enjoy so all is well...they have plenty of cash, that seems to be all that concerns him.

He's only on $300k isn't he, though he did take some off the table at the last capital raise.

Those brokers with sell ratings must be close to putting a hold rating on it. Must be close to target price for some of them?

[Goldstein]

If the price keeps tanking at a great rate of knots the company's name could end up looking like an "unfortunate" choice, hopefully not a prophetic one in terms of the SP end game.

So Roger with your valuations of:

XRO $0
SUM $1.68
AIR $1.56
RYM $6.50

I take it you're pretty much cashed up at the moment?

[couta1]

So, what's the word, Couta? Are you happy with the advice that led to you purchasing this stock? Would you advise others to trade on the advice that BFG is broadcasting?

Moosies initial advise to me to buy on what he considered a strong buy signal at $42.50 was wrong and he has admitted that and he later apologized to me re that advise. Up to that point he had been calling the movements of Xero with uncanny accuracy ( Others on here would remember that period) Even aside from Moosies advise I would have ended up buying Xero at some other price around that figure say $39 as that was the hype mode I was locked into at the time as were many others. Since then i've done a lot of my own research on Xero and have become a believer that they can do what they set out to do ( Plus I have a diehard kinda personality) What BFG is saying is if you can live with the paper loss without it ruining your life in any way and your a believer then hold otherwise sell at an opportune time but I'd say sell as soon as the stress starts getting too much regardless of the time.

[couta1]

It's actually possible just to stay right away from share market updates, if you really want to. I did it for Chorus to preserve my sanity. I was always going to hold onto the shares and hope for the best (although I should have sold when Couta did . I stopped looking at the price early December 2013 when it was $1.44 and never checked the price again for three months. I'm really glad I didn't because by mid December the price was down to $1.29 I think which would have totally destroyed my Christmas. I never checked in again until February when the price was still around $1.44 - but I avoided a heap of pain in the meantime.

One thing I did was to stay away from this forum. There just seemed to be too many people enjoying the carnage. I guess its understandable but it's hard to stomach nonetheless.

Some good advice in here Bobdn and you showed real guts to stay away from the market and the forum, yourve done a lot better than i have in this regard

[Casino]

Hit my mental stop loss today but compare XRO to some others,XRO down 5.8%,Wyn down 6.4%,SLI down 7.7%, has anything changed fundermentally with any of these companies ?answer No, has anything changed in the forecast growth rates of any of these companies? answer No, so instead of selling this seems to me a time to baton down the hatches and ride out the storm IMHO

You don't even listen to yourself. Hope your own post from April doesn't invoke too much pain.

Moosies ... had been calling the movements of Xero with uncanny accuracy

Or was he just stating the obvious?

Even aside from Moosies advise I would have ended up buying Xero at some other price around that figure say $39 as that was the hype mode I was locked into at the time as were many others.

I'm glad that you see it that way. There were many cautioning you not to buy but you only took clues from those who encouraged YOUR view. It's good that you acknowledge this because you have a strong tendency towards confirmation bias.

Since then i've done a lot of my own research on Xero

Mind sharing your research?
Have you done your best to eliminate confirmation bias, which caused you your problems in the first place?

and have become a believer

What were you before?

that they can do what they set out to do

What have they set out to do? How many customers/how much revenue/how much profit do you foresee?

( Plus I have a diehard kinda personality)

Is stubbornness a trait that is unique to you or rather common pitfall of many investors?
http://whitetopinvestor.com/attached...less-investor/

What BFG is saying is if you can live with the paper loss without it ruining your life in any way and your a believer then hold

Why?

otherwise sell at an opportune time but I'd say sell as soon as the stress starts getting too much regardless of the time.

That's what a stop-loss is.

[Fisherboy3]

I see the following points as salient

1. Loss making high growth SAAS companies have long term and resilient investor confidence. Many including salesforce,amazon (not saas) and xero went through the GFC and have gone on to have high caps despite long term losses.

2. Valuations are loosely based on price/revenue averaging between 5 and 20 times depending on growth rates/management/size of potential market/expected gross margins/cash reserves.

3. $45 a share was driven by small retail investors. Proof:comparisons of shareholders using the xero annual returns show a big increase in small shareholdings and larger shareholdings decreasing. At 70 times revenue it was gold fever retail investor greed and bound to correct.

4.At the moment I think 15-20X is fair value given xero's attributes. And in 2 years if xero still has 80% growth it will be worth 15 times revenue even with losses. Proof of this can be found in historical share prices of salesforce and similar companies.

5.Xero is the incumbent saas in UK,Aus,NZ and most likely contender for second place in the US.

6.SAAS is the future of accounting software.

7.Xero has executed THEIR plan flawlessly and so will be able to raise capital in the future their high value backers don't give a hoot about sp fluctuations specially that its corrected from ridiculous to reasonable.

8. Banking 2.0 is based on the fact that nz/aus banks still use ms-dos and MYOB it will change it has to and xero is right in with them giving them the next generation solution.

[couta1]

Well I'm signing off from posting on this thread from now, I've just been as honest as I could be with others but I don't want to keep living in the past and have my previous posts used against me, I'm a work in progress and continually learning. I've chosen to keep holding Xero at this time so guilty as charged.

[Casino]

Well I'm signing off from posting on this thread from now, I've just been as honest as I could be with others but I don't want to keep living in the past and have my previous posts used against me, I'm a work in progress and continually learning. I've chosen to keep holding Xero at this time so guilty as charged.

I didn't mean to attack you and I'm surprised you took it as that. It would be a shame to loose you on this thread. I'm just saying that you need to make sure your forward predictions are not based on the same fallacies that let you down. I feel terribly sorry that you and probably many others left a lot of money on the table. This is a problem and it will only go away with more rational decision making.

[Corporate]

All - rather than cluter up the xero thread why don't you take it to private messages.


Getting back to Xero:
Does anyone have any research/sources that contain generally accepted valuation methods for SAAS companies? I have been modelling xero and I can make assumptions for customer and ARPU growth but one thing I am struggling with is what is a reasonable multipleir for the resulting revenue.

Currently by my calculations xero is sitting on 15.5x ACMR

Cheers,
James