Xro - xero

[blackcap]

Ha ha, short yesterday. Lets see what happens today, however I'm picking the run higher is over.
Obviously could be wrong, but that's what stops are for. ;-)

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

[kanaka]

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

Doesn't short - only dreaming

[twotic]

I think he's mistaking market expectations with official Xero projections. My own reading, following the company pretty closely, is that RD has generally talked down the US and has been pretty clear that while a huge opportunity, it could take a number of years. He still says the main growth engines at present are Aust and the UK. He's also been straight up about when Xero will hit profitability. And, he's has also been honest about failure and changed course accordingly (Xero personal, US appointments...)

would love over to know when he got in short. Must be sweating at present...

Thanks, it does seem that way doesn't it. I just get a bit frustrated when people post opinion as fact - particularly when they are incorrect.

[twotic]

I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.

So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.

Bang on mate, couldn't have put it better myself.

[skid]

I think it's fair to believe that early US growth has been slower than Xero and Rod may have expected, but I think they have always said the US was a special case with a strong incumbent and different operating and legislative environment. They have been more vocal in their warning about this than they have been bullish about what and how things will be achieved. They have talked up the potential of the US market, but I think been careful not to promise anything.

So I think it's incorrect to label them as having over-promised and under-delivered, and I think Rod has often gone to some length to avoid that, sticking to the 80% growth predictions as the bottom line, which, as far as I can see, have been met. The UK growth is fantastic alone and will clearly be ready to take over the growth baton from Australia once that starts to ease in the next couple of years based on projections.

That's not to say that 60% US growth in the next results, which for many other companies is seen as delightful news, will be taken as disappointing and drag the SP. It's a crazy scale for this company.

Oh and Daytr I think the old chestnut about Xero not yet turning a profit is just an out of date sentiment for this company. they have plainly said they are gearing for growth and aiming high. They could close offices and retrench at any time and make an instant profit based on current sales alone, but thats not the plan is it? Gear for growth and keep going, and clearly investors arn't concerned about it not yet making a profit because thats not the immediate goal. So why are you worried about this? High cost of sales its true but any engine needs a good guzzle of gas to get going and accelerate to the speed you want, then you can start taking your foot off and enjoy the ride and efficiencies.

While these points are useful in debating the issue of over promising--they are also very relevant as to how you value this company.
Rod is telling you that the US market could be harder to crack than expected(so prudent investors should price the co. accordingly.)

[bull....]

Hi Daytr, where did you go short because I am looking to do the same thing and the provider I used last time does not allow me to short XRO anymore.

Your provider may restrict shorting when they have allocated all there available stock already.

[Daytr]

I trade CFDs

[twotic]

For the sake of open disclosure I'm out at $25. One could argue this news has effectively brought about a 55%+ rise in the SP which IMHO is a bit much. I purchased my latest block of shares at $17.70 held on for a bit of a loss for a few months but am happy now to bank the profits.

I may well be back in again soon, I believe in this company but don't have as long a time frame as others and feel I must be realistic as well!

Good luck to those who continue to hold.

Couta I hope you are getting some good advice.

[Daytr]

In 2012 from a company presentation.
The target for 1 million customers globally.
The US percentage of that was 53.5% or 535k customers.
As of the last report they have 22k customers in the US.
Two years later & only 22 thousand customers in the US.
They haven't even achieved 5% of what they forecast!
Grossly over promised & under delivered on the US sales as I have been saying.
Australian & NZ sales are on or actually over forecast, however its always been the US that has driven the huge valuations of XRO.

So don't get frustrated or annoyed when people make claims, that are quite legitimate, do your research.
It took me five minutes to find the information, but I shouldn't have to do that just to disprove challenges to what were clearly facts.

Cheers Daytr

[bull....]

I trade CFDs

yes most likely way shorted, unless you big enough to loan some from an insto anyway that 25 proved a good level to vacate at.
I had 25 as previous resistance from quite a way back mentioned it back then as well in some previous posts many moons ago