Xro - xero

[mikeybycrikey]

In 2012 from a company presentation.
The target for 1 million customers globally.
The US percentage of that was 53.5% or 535k customers.
As of the last report they have 22k customers in the US.
Two years later & only 22 thousand customers in the US.
They haven't even achieved 5% of what they forecast!
Grossly over promised & under delivered on the US sales as I have been saying.
Australian & NZ sales are on or actually over forecast, however its always been the US that has driven the huge valuations of XRO.

So don't get frustrated or annoyed when people make claims, that are quite legitimate, do your research.
It took me five minutes to find the information, but I shouldn't have to do that just to disprove challenges to what were clearly facts.

Cheers Daytr

Do you have a link for that?

[Hoop]

25 target in sight rock on

from rock on up to $25target then spot on...Well Done

[bull....]

from rock on up to $25target then spot on...Well Done

cheers bro, keep your charts flowing enjoy them makes the site more colourful

[RGR367]

For the sake of open disclosure I'm out at $25. One could argue this news has effectively brought about a 55%+ rise in the SP which IMHO is a bit much. I purchased my latest block of shares at $17.70 held on for a bit of a loss for a few months but am happy now to bank the profits.

............

Good luck to those who continue to hold.

...................

Just holding on a bit longer on those I bought at range of $18 - $20. But sold almost half of what I got lower than that yesterday. Just hoping for a bit more of up movements today

[Harvey Specter]

Do you have a link for that?

15 November 2012 investor pack: https://www.xero.com/nz/about/investors/reports/

They are on track for NZ (acheived), Australia (probably by now), UK (probably by year end at current growth) and US/Global (a long long way off). They have acknowledged the US failure/delay and changed there strategy there - probably another 4+ years at 100% growth (or 3 years at 200% growth)

[JamesST]

I completely disagree. They have never forecast US numbers.
A target market size with no indication of timeframes is very different from a forecast. Xero consistently meet forecasts.
I have been following for a long time. "Under delivered" is pretty much the opposite of what I would call their performance to date.
From my perspective they have delivered more than most shareholders including Rod could possibly have imagined at IPO.

In 2012 from a company presentation.
The target for 1 million customers globally.
The US percentage of that was 53.5% or 535k customers.
As of the last report they have 22k customers in the US.
Two years later & only 22 thousand customers in the US.
They haven't even achieved 5% of what they forecast!
Grossly over promised & under delivered on the US sales as I have been saying.
Australian & NZ sales are on or actually over forecast, however its always been the US that has driven the huge valuations of XRO.

So don't get frustrated or annoyed when people make claims, that are quite legitimate, do your research.
It took me five minutes to find the information, but I shouldn't have to do that just to disprove challenges to what were clearly facts.

Cheers Daytr

[Daytr]

I said under delivered on US sales forecasts which again I repeat was the main driver for the euphoria of this stock & its ridiculously high valuations.
If after two years only achieving 5% isn't under delivering then I don't know what you call is.
In regards growth.
What I would suggest is they have pulled in the easy wins in NZ & Aust & that growth in those locations will start to slide at some point.
When who knows, but my estimate is this year or next.
US obviously they have huge potential but have yet to realize anywhere near it.
At 100% growth in the US they will have about 8% of what they forecast 2 years ago.
They need 500% growth in the US to justify the current valuation & that or anything like it ain't going to happen & the longer they take the more risk of competition imo.

I completely disagree. They have never forecast US numbers.
A target market size with no indication of timeframes is very different from a forecast. Xero consistently meet forecasts.
I have been following for a long time. "Under delivered" is pretty much the opposite of what I would call their performance to date.
From my perspective they have delivered more than most shareholders including Rod could possibly have imagined at IPO.

[twotic]

In 2012 from a company presentation.
The target for 1 million customers globally.
The US percentage of that was 53.5% or 535k customers.
As of the last report they have 22k customers in the US.
Two years later & only 22 thousand customers in the US.
They haven't even achieved 5% of what they forecast!
Grossly over promised & under delivered on the US sales as I have been saying.
Australian & NZ sales are on or actually over forecast, however its always been the US that has driven the huge valuations of XRO.

So don't get frustrated or annoyed when people make claims, that are quite legitimate, do your research.
It took me five minutes to find the information, but I shouldn't have to do that just to disprove challenges to what were clearly facts.

Cheers Daytr

Cheers for the reply. To a point I do stand corrected (always more than happy to do so) as I had forgotten about that breakdown, and put in that context I can see how relatively speaking you might interpret US sales being below XRO's expectations/projections - but I disagree with you statement whole heartedly and think you are clutching at straws. There is a wider context that those figures need to be seen in which is either lost on you or you are neglecting to take into account.

First and foremost commentary from XRO has always been that the 1 million figure is simply a rough guide and a milestone they want to both reach and surpass - subsequently when those figures are broken down into regional numbers they become even rougher. They are not intended as regional market projections, they are simply target market sizes with an interim 1 million customer cap. As a result, as an investor in XRO for many years, while I viewed that slide many times, I personally never treated it as a company projection of (US) sales only a rough guide to a milestone. RD has said many times during conference calls and presentations etc, something along the lines of "this is simply a temporary end-point that people can put in their spread sheets".

Secondly, the trouble with you using those numbers for regional projections is they are very much relative to both the rough 1 million customer interim target AND the growth tracks of the other regions. Without getting into the mathematics of it, that alone makes drawing inference about over-promising and under-delivering sketchy at best.

I appreciate your reply, but I disagree with you completely (and I can now say that as an absolute unbiassed bystander in this stock after selling out completely today).

[twotic]

I said under delivered on US sales forecasts which again I repeat was the main driver for the euphoria of this stock & its ridiculously high valuations.
If after two years only achieving 5% isn't under delivering then I don't know what you call is.
In regards growth.
What I would suggest is they have pulled in the easy wins in NZ & Aust & that growth in those locations will start to slide at some point.
When who knows, but my estimate is this year or next.
US obviously they have huge potential but have yet to realize anywhere near it.
At 100% growth in the US they will have about 8% of what they forecast 2 years ago.
They need 500% growth in the US to justify the current valuation & that or anything like it ain't going to happen & the longer they take the more risk of competition imo.

Just a couple minor corrections to your numbers and comments:
1) The slide you referred to combines US and ROW so you are 50% out in you calculations.
2) Growth in OZ and particularly in NZ slowed a long time ago - you might want to look at your spreadsheets again to get a better sense of regional growth rates over time.

Anyway, I'll leave it to the people who are actually invested in this stock - long or otherwise to continue these debates.

Good luck to you all!

[Daytr]

Haha 5% what ever way you slice it under delivering.
Disagree all you want its obviously subjective.

I stand corrected, you are right the figure was for the US & the rest of the world outside of the UK, Australia & NZ.
So not only have they over promised & underperformed in the US & they have over promised & under performed in all markets outside the softer targets of Aust, NZ & the UK.

And thanks for confirming sales growth is slowing in Australia & NZ particularly.
So I reiterate, easy wins out of the way, now comes the slog & they need to perform where they haven't in the past to justify half the valuation currently placed on this stock.