Xro - xero

[JamesST]

Do you mean page 30???
This isn't a forecast!!!!
This is their target market size. They want to one day get a total of 535,000 customer in the US and rest of world. One day. Not this year!
I think you misread the report. They have never made a 'forecast' for US numbers. How could they have any idea at this stage?

How many times have you seen a broker talk down a stock? Makes me laugh when people quote broker valuations etc. Very few are worth their salt & Motley jmo is one of the biggest strikers around.

Jamest the forecast or target is in a report they issued in 2012. Do your research & as someone rightly pointed out it was for the US & the rest of the world, but the US will be the majority of that, or at least you would hope it was with all the money that is being spent there.

As someone reminded me it was end of month. Perhaps small volume pushing the price up was brokers trying to mark their book for clients. Its been done before, in fact regularly I would suggest.

[Daytr]

It is interesting & I think has some legitimacy.
What would have been really interesting though is if they had done the same analysis for US Google searches.
Wouldn't that have been the logical next step?
Perhaps they did but the numbers didn't give them a the bullish picture they want to portray.
Or perhaps they wouldn't even register on a graph.

Xero wins Aus and NZ and will get there too in the US of A. http://www.fool.com.au/2015/02/27/has-xero-already-won/

[BlackPeter]

How many times have you seen a broker talk down a stock? Makes me laugh when people quote broker valuations etc. Very few are worth their salt & Motley jmo is one of the biggest strikers around.

Hmm - you mean you have never seen any broker putting an "underperform" or "sell" on a stock or to set a target price lower than for what it is traded at the time of the recommendation? If that's what you are saying, than your research seems to be sort of limited ... Just form memory (and in no particular order) here are a handful of stocks currently "talked down" (in one way or another) by brokers: AIA, FPH, GNE, HNZ, MRP, SPK

For all of these stocks the current consensus estimate is lower than the current SP - and some are on "underperform".

Of course - brokers are not always right, but neither are you nor I ....

[Daytr]

Nope that's not what I'm saying, so your post is a waste of time.
You have a habit of misinterpreting my posts to your own ends.
One for you though.
Are you suggesting that on the whole brokers don't talk up stocks & are quite often just spruiking ? Lol

[BlackPeter]

Nope that's not what I'm saying, so your post is a waste of time.
You have a habit of misinterpreting my posts to your own ends.
One for you though.
Are you suggesting that on the whole brokers don't talk up stocks & are quite often just spruiking ? Lol

Just observing ....

It feels you like to inflict your often controversial opinions and negative views onto others, but react quite defensive / aggressive related to any comments / questions related to your posts. Anyway, this is how I perceive many of your posts, but won't be a problem anymore - I shall put you on my ignore list and we both will have our peace.

Enjoy the rest of your life ...

[Daytr]

That's ok Black Peter I suggested we don't engage some time ago. Not defensive I just don't like people misinterpreting my posts for their own agenda.
And I would suggest its hardly controversial to say that brokers have a habit of talking up stocks and give one sided analysis.
In fact I would say its a disease within the industry that's been around since Adam was a boy.
I would also suggest its because you didn't like the fact I shorted BHP recently after you have been talking it up & I was in favor of the EPA's decision to reject the CRP application. Its not controversial just because I don't agree with you.

JameST, I didn't say this year, but this was put out two years ago & they have only achieved 5% of that, where as in NZ & Aust they are pretty much on target give or take.
XRO have invested heavily in the US for little or no return at this point. They have admitted their initial strategy failed in the US.
If their is a target put out you expect it to be achieved within a reasonable time frame, 5 years at most, but more like 2-3 imho. The market obviously expected that, with the ridiculous valuation that was applied.
And it still expects I would suggest minimum 300% increase in US sales if not 500% this year.
Good luck with that.

[JamesST]

They are at very different stages in the market.
In NZ they took 4 or 5 years to reach the 20,000 customer milestone. You would expect NZ to be closer to the total target market size target given they've been operating there since pre IPO.
US is very early days. They are only at the start of the journey and have repeatedly told the market that it will take time.
Rod mentioned that he was unhappy with traction in the US last year but that is very different to missing forecasts.
That slide you are referring to was simply demonstrating that getting to their ultimate goal of 1 million customers was very achievable.
I think it is unfair to say they've grossly over-promised and under-delivered.
If anything I would say that the target of 500,000 customer in the US is being very cautious. I reckon they'll smash this out of the park like Kane Williamson.

JameST, I didn't say this year, but this was put out two years ago & they have only achieved 5% of that, where as in NZ & Aust they are pretty much on target give or take.
XRO have invested heavily in the US for little or no return at this point. They have admitted their initial strategy failed in the US.
If their is a target put out you expect it to be achieved within a reasonable time frame, 5 years at most, but more like 2-3 imho. The market obviously expected that, with the ridiculous valuation that was applied.
And it still expects I would suggest minimum 300% increase in US sales if not 500% this year.
Good luck with that.

[Daytr]

Jamest, that better not be their ultimate target otherwise they are extremely over valued!

In all honesty can you say that they have performed at all well outside of the NZ, Aust. & UK markets?
At the moment they have 5% of the 500k customers you think the will smash that out of the park.
Its for these very reasons, i.e. the euphoric nature of its share holders that I am short.

[Baa_Baa]

...
XRO is running up on TA trading.........Interesting that there has been no reply to my latest questions to the TA traders on this forum........I gather from the silence that the TA points to the XRO share price could go either way next week....may I suggest that the way it has traded for the last 2 trading days indicates the wind is coming out of this run and a retrenchment is highly probable.
I am not TA er so look forward to being corrected by them....or is this one to hard to pick.

@Snapiti, you may have answered your own question. The chart cannot predict where XRO will go, but looking at it now the price has bolted to successive horizontal resistance lines.

All the basic indicators are very positive, re-enforcing TA's/traders confidence. The last three days I would say are; Wed gap-up as it went through the 200day EMA (common); Thurs a follow on big up to resistance; and Friday I guess traders taking their gains off the table for the weekend. If anything, the daily chart shows that previous daily resistance is now support. The weekly and monthly charts are extremely bullish.

The only thing that will change the TA's confidence is seller pressure, though that assumes the bias shifts to XRO being considered overvalued and/or over priced. Until then, the bulls have it under control.

[ShareFodder]

Xero wins Aus and NZ and will get there too in the US of A. http://www.fool.com.au/2015/02/27/has-xero-already-won/

Very interesting. The shape of the MYOB chart is particularly interesting. Does it suggest that the MYOB searches are more as a result of periodic marketing campaigns rather than the organic network effect driven growth of customer interest in XRO?

Long XRO. It's very hard to value such a stock but long term I think there is room for at least 3 successful cloud accounting packages and I can't imagine that XRO won't be one of them...