Xro - xero

[Baa_Baa]

thanks baabaa.......don't fully understand all the squiggly lines so can't be confident that I answered my own question..........when you say resistance will be support does that mean $20.....
surely you don't mean $25 as that has failed to hold twice........or do you mean $25 will become support level when it eventually holds.......by the sounds of your statement "the bulls are firmly in control" the latter seems to be your indication.

The blue curving line is the 50day EMA, the red curving line is the 200day EMA. Each time they were breached upwards, the price leaps. The horizontal lines show previous stopping points where the prices were falling and provided some 'buyer support'. As the price rises, the same horizontal lines are 'seller resistance'. Notably the price traded very closely to those horizontal lines during the past couple of weeks.

$25 resistance, has failed twice, yes. If it went up through $25, it would become support. If it falls, $23 or so is the support below, and the 200day EMA support below that. The bulls are/have been in control for a couple of weeks. That may change tomorrow, or not. The indicators are the various small charts underneath the price chart, they 'indicate' buyer/seller sentiment, money flow etc. All of them suggest the buyers are in control, so far. If you're looking for weakness, the only thing to suggest that is the lower open and lower close on Friday.

If we had a sophisticated trading platform, a trader might take a position on both sides (long buy and a short sell) both with trailing stops = four open positions ... the winning side up or down would be left to run and the losing side would be stopped out. At least that's how I'd play it if these were options using www.optionsexpress.com.au but it's not, it's the NZX with only a couple of crappy trading platforms for the average Joe.

BAA

[mikeybycrikey]

JameST, I didn't say this year, but this was put out two years ago & they have only achieved 5% of that, where as in NZ & Aust they are pretty much on target give or take.
XRO have invested heavily in the US for little or no return at this point. They have admitted their initial strategy failed in the US.
If their is a target put out you expect it to be achieved within a reasonable time frame, 5 years at most, but more like 2-3 imho. The market obviously expected that, with the ridiculous valuation that was applied.
And it still expects I would suggest minimum 300% increase in US sales if not 500% this year.
Good luck with that.

Daytr, maybe it's time to move on to the next bit of damning evidence of failure by Xero.

I don't think you'll convince any of the believers that it was actually a forecast (myself included) and I don't think they will convince you that it wasn't a forecast. Impasse like that doesn't make for interesting debate.

I expect that in the absence of any news in the next few weeks the next big move in the SP will come in early April when Xero announces year end subscription numbers. We'll see if they are making any headway at all in the US and also if the growth in UK and Australia are continuing as they have been. I expect the share price might jump a few dollars (either up or down) then but might just drift until then.

[skid]

The blue curving line is the 50day EMA, the red curving line is the 200day EMA. Each time they were breached upwards, the price leaps. The horizontal lines show previous stopping points where the prices were falling and provided some 'buyer support'. As the price rises, the same horizontal lines are 'seller resistance'. Notably the price traded very closely to those horizontal lines during the past couple of weeks.

$25 resistance, has failed twice, yes. If it went up through $25, it would become support. If it falls, $23 or so is the support below, and the 200day EMA support below that. The bulls are/have been in control for a couple of weeks. That may change tomorrow, or not. The indicators are the various small charts underneath the price chart, they 'indicate' buyer/seller sentiment, money flow etc. All of them suggest the buyers are in control, so far. If you're looking for weakness, the only thing to suggest that is the lower open and lower close on Friday.

If we had a sophisticated trading platform, a trader might take a position on both sides (long buy and a short sell) both with trailing stops = four open positions ... the winning side up or down would be left to run and the losing side would be stopped out. At least that's how I'd play it if these were options using www.optionsexpress.com.au but it's not, it's the NZX with only a couple of crappy trading platforms for the average Joe.

BAA

I was under the impression that the 200ma is generally used if the company is profitable--and the 120ma ,if it is yet to achieve a profit

[skid]

Daytr, maybe it's time to move on to the next bit of damning evidence of failure by Xero.

I don't think you'll convince any of the believers that it was actually a forecast (myself included) and I don't think they will convince you that it wasn't a forecast. Impasse like that doesn't make for interesting debate.

I expect that in the absence of any news in the next few weeks the next big move in the SP will come in early April when Xero announces year end subscription numbers. We'll see if they are making any headway at all in the US and also if the growth in UK and Australia are continuing as they have been. I expect the share price might jump a few dollars (either up or down) then but might just drift until then.

Whether he actually made a forcast or not--is'nt the fact that they are concerned with US sales a bit of a worry?

I respect TA and its a good way to stay relatively safe --but my gut says to be cautious about this week coming.

Disc.-my gut is not to be used as investment advice dyor

[Baa_Baa]

I was under the impression that the 200ma is generally used if the company is profitable--and the 120ma ,if it is yet to achieve a profit

Interesting thanks, not heard of that before - in regards to whether to adjust an MA if profitable or not, do you have a reference? (my charts are EMA's by the way). Either way though, 120 or 200, they both got slammed. The bulls on XRO are a delight to watch, but I'd have to say I'm way more bearish on XRO now, for all the reasons Daytr is posting here and on HotCopper. I'm just not short XRO so I don't have the same vested interest as he has. I'd rather just be patient and watch reality continue to sink in that Xero cannot possibly be priced sustainably at ridiculous multiples of earnings and a re-boot of the USA story. That's not to mention why on earth Rod (the board) would shaft its existing shareholders by dilution of future yield, bringing in another big name investor, when they "don't need the money". Accel will probably help a lot in the future but Ouch to existing shareholders. The giant Intuit is plainly not going to stand by and take it up the ... revenue, espacially while Rod plays his 'bait the competition' games as he does with MYOB. NZ, Aus and UK numbers will no doubt embolden some, but those numbers won't be forthcoming for a while yet and growth curves should be flattening in NZ, probably in Aus and reliance on UK to prop up the financials will be intense. Meanwhile USA success is back to being a hope. $25 for XRO, that's ludicrous.

Sorry, strayed off the MA's a bit there
BAA

[skid]

My reference is some pretty successful investors use that system,but Im not good enough at the subtleties to defend it--just throwing it out there (I realize they both got smashed)

Im not shorting or invested either--Its a gut feeling I would keep an eye on--as far as US not going as well as they hoped--It seems like a very important thing to take into consideration,especially after last years increase on hype-...so basically agree with you on that one..seems ludicrous and at some point we could possibly see last week in reverse.---just my 2c

[Daytr]

I am not arguing if it was a forecast or not, that's just semantics.
What I am saying is that the business has underperformed in the US, that's it.
And in regards the major upside for sales & to justify the current valuation, they need to start performing at a level of multiples what they are now, in that market. The home markets isn't going to deliver them the growth they need.
And to date they have shown no indication they can achieve anything like that (multiples).
That may change, I just don't think it will, although I would expect to see some improvement after all the investment in people & a change of strategy.

[tga_trader]

might have been a great decision to sell KW......

Yes, 100%. It was a huge jump for a nothing announcement so I 'took the money and ran'. I'll possibly look at buying back in when it bottoms out again, but as much as I love the company the share price is way too volatile and over inflated too have money tied up long term.

[ShareFodder]

It is interesting & I think has some legitimacy.
What would have been really interesting though is if they had done the same analysis for US Google searches.
Wouldn't that have been the logical next step?
Perhaps they did but the numbers didn't give them a the bullish picture they want to portray.
Or perhaps they wouldn't even register on a graph.

Actually, it's pretty easy to generate this in Google Trends. Looks like Xero is beating MYOB in google searches in the US comprehensively.

Attachment 7156

Quickbooks Online is a different story however...

World

Attachment 7157

USA

Attachment 7158

[Daytr]

Thanks for posting. It will be interesting to see if this is validated in the next sales results.

Actually, it's pretty easy to generate this in Google Trends. Looks like Xero is beating MYOB in google searches in the US comprehensively.

Attachment 7156

Quickbooks Online is a different story however...

World

Attachment 7157

USA

Attachment 7158