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Thread: TEL v TLS

  1. #1
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    Default TEL v TLS

    If one wanted to put money into a dominant telco downunder, which would you choose and why?

    Both have seen a bit of a revival lately, both have the promise of major changes that are keeping people keen, i.e. special div or cap repayment vs oz govt freeing up market and equity.

    TLS seems to have better numbers when P/E, NTA and yield etc are compared, but all the talk is of TEL and the possible extra divvy.

    Thoughts?
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  2. #2
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    Telstra is likely to benefit NZ shareholders if the NZ dollar falls against the Aussie as predicted by many.
    Both seem to me to be very solid companies but I would probably favour telstra for the longer term.
    So I think Telecom may be better for the next six months or so but then telstra for twelve months or longer.

  3. #3
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    Yes, if the dollar can hold up for a bit (looks likely on recent figures) and TEL make an announcement soon then an ideal play sees short term profits from TEL switched into TLS maintaining sector allocation balance. Of course if dollar falls earlier or TEL are tardy or oz govt gets off it butt sooner then TLS will be an opportunity missed.

    All possible big announcements aside, would any of our TA experts care to post a comparative graph for TEL and TLS?
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

    "The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." - C&H

  4. #4
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    Gryffyn,

    Check out a TLS graph from the Mighty P here. As you can see, it's stuck in a trading range.

    http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=21237

    In contrast, I haven't drawn a line in, but this this graph shows a merrier picture.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/cha...375&mocktick=1

    NB. You could draw a resistanced line at about $6.30 on the Telecom graph

    DISC: No holding

  5. #5
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    Thank you LG for the links. Yes, the trading range kinda shows it is marking time waiting for the govt, and then...

    Bongo - do you really see $7 on the cards soon? Depends of course on the possible extra payout. Short term you might be right but it seems akin to gambling hence this thread. Black or Red and then spin the wheel...

    Disc: no direct holdings.
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

    "The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." - C&H

  6. #6
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    Buy TEL, sell on trendline break>> Or transfer to TLS on trading range break>> Or buy TEL.ASX?? (I don't know if this is a good strategy, but I considered topping up my FBU on the ASX to take advantage of currency situation. Unsure of dividend implications -- guess depends if they are registered for franking/imputation sharing).

  7. #7
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    Just for the fun of it, I'll keep score on a daily basis from here on for a while comparing closing price from day to day... with % gain or loss at the end of the week

    31/01/2005

    Shr Open Clse Divds Diff. Cumulative
    ------------------------------------
    TEL 6.18 6.16 00.00 -0.02 -0.02
    TLS 5.35 5.40 00.00 +0.05 +0.05
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

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  8. #8
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    Gryffyn, what are you after.....a 'mid term buy and hold', or a 'couple of quick trades' per week to net a few bucks?

  9. #9
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    SM -I'm rarely after the latter; not a trader.
    Fantasy Premier League 2006/07, 2007/08, and 2008/09 Champion :-)

    "The surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us." - C&H

  10. #10
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    I've been in and out of TEL since '94 and TLS since '97 and over the years TLS has treated me better.
    Today my avge TLS buy price (excl divs) is only 153c - market now 540. Looking forward to future gains as and when the Oz govt sells out - or down.
    I'm well weighted in TEL and expecting further gains, even though long-term holders like me are still hurting from Deane & Co's ill-managed move into Oz. Prior to that the s p was at or around $9. More recently I was buying in the high 400s. I figure that with TEL divs I'm roughly back where I started and believe there is plenty of upside, despite the subservience of TEL's top management to the somnolent time-servers on the board.

    That said, why TEL [u]v</u> TLS? Why not TEL [u]&</u>TLS?

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