Burgerfuel

[Harvey Specter]

Not reading too much into it but from my quick flick through the HYR;

I'm guessing that'll be the first location?

interesting. Suggests they will own the stores, rather that just franchise it

[whatsup]

interesting. Suggests they will own the stores, rather that just franchise it

If that is the case there should be a ann as this is a major event and should be a rerating ahead some time .

[Gleaming]

Have to prove concept in market before franchising

[Harvey Specter]

Have to prove concept in market before franchising

They didn't in the Middle East, though that isn't a crowded market like the US.

[Gleaming]

BF has built a good business in the Middle East but had the benefit of being first to market and didnt have any direct comp from QSRs for a number of years. As you know its one thing to scale a business in the absence of competition but California is going to be hard work. Shack shack, In Out Burger etc. In fact it would probably be one of the most competitive burger markets in the world.

Totally agree with you about Asia, im far more bullish on this region. No large burger QSRs have set up shop so they could potentially scale like they did in the Middle East.

Really hope it comes off for them and my guess is we will know shorlty.

[whatsup]

What is going on with B F at the moment $3.00 DOWN to $2.00 , is the business model still intact ?

[Harvey Specter]

What is going on with B F at the moment $3.00 DOWN to $2.00 , is the business model still intact ?

$3 never made sense. The NZ stores are going great. Oz not so much. No news from US which is where the overly optimistic price came from.

[Mike9414]

Burgerfuel seems to have drastically oversold their movement into the US markets. OhCal Foods is a tiny little mom and pop joint, not the type of partner I think they were trying to get. It looks like they've also made a mistake in choosing one of the most competitive burger markets in the US in California with some of the most expensive property prices and wages, instead of selecting Texas or Florida which would be much more feasible. I worry that Burgerfuel is in over its head. They've made commitments to moving into the US and are quickly finding the quality of the burgers there (Shake Shack, In-n-out, SmashBurger, Five Guys, Fuddruckers, etc) and the price of those burgers is much more competitive than anywhere else they operate. Even in the Middle East, they are apparently now losing ground once others started moving in - they are just too expensive for what they purport to offer.

[Baa_Baa]

Burgerfuel seems to have drastically oversold their movement into the US markets. OhCal Foods is a tiny little mom and pop joint, not the type of partner I think they were trying to get. It looks like they've also made a mistake in choosing one of the most competitive burger markets in the US in California with some of the most expensive property prices and wages, instead of selecting Texas or Florida which would be much more feasible. I worry that Burgerfuel is in over its head. They've made commitments to moving into the US and are quickly finding the quality of the burgers there (Shake Shack, In-n-out, SmashBurger, Five Guys, Fuddruckers, etc) and the price of those burgers is much more competitive than anywhere else they operate. Even in the Middle East, they are apparently now losing ground once others started moving in - they are just too expensive for what they purport to offer.

Welcome Mike9414. Good observations, thanks. The chart looks deadly as well, having broken down through clear support at $2.20 it's potential for free-fall to $1.50 is high with no technical supports in between. Needs good news to stem the fall.

[silverblizzard888]

Burgerfuel seems to have drastically oversold their movement into the US markets. OhCal Foods is a tiny little mom and pop joint, not the type of partner I think they were trying to get. It looks like they've also made a mistake in choosing one of the most competitive burger markets in the US in California with some of the most expensive property prices and wages, instead of selecting Texas or Florida which would be much more feasible. I worry that Burgerfuel is in over its head. They've made commitments to moving into the US and are quickly finding the quality of the burgers there (Shake Shack, In-n-out, SmashBurger, Five Guys, Fuddruckers, etc) and the price of those burgers is much more competitive than anywhere else they operate. Even in the Middle East, they are apparently now losing ground once others started moving in - they are just too expensive for what they purport to offer.

I agree theres tough competition in the US for burgers and they have clearly underestimated the effort it has taken to start things off i.e location, paper work and supply chain, but don't think its as bad as you think. The Subway founders would have done their homework and put their confidence in Burgerfuel to do well before they offered to assist them in the US, these guys were the masterminds behind Subway so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt in what they see. I've tried Burgerfuel and continue to go back, I like how things are set up and the taste of the food. Ohcal Foods is not a 'tiny mom and pop joint', it has a hand in opening and supporting 2000 subway restaurants (when you compare NZ has about 300 stores, might as well call NZ a kid run section then). I don't think in Middle East they are losing ground, but they sure did a bad licensing deal, but at the end restaurants continue to open.

I think the stock has suffered from the sell down and that it is so quiet as a stock that people lose interest. If there is a stock that will test patience it is Burgerfuel, but when they grow they will really grow into something great. Go read the book Pour Your Heart Into It by Howard Schultz, you'll see how businesses are built and where the real traction is.