Burgerfuel

[Hectorplains]

$3 never made sense. The NZ stores are going great. Oz not so much. No news from US which is where the overly optimistic price came from.

The whole 'gourmet' burger thing might be a fast food culinary fad that's reached its peak. It's when the vendors of these products reach large numbers that the tipping point tends to be close - Don't get me wrong, the premium burger will remain but it won't have the go-to consumer pull it currently holds... Remember the wealth of takeaway 'Mexican' shops, and even stand alone nacho shacks, of the 90's?

In the Christchurch market Fuel are up against Burgers and Beers, Velvet, Wisconsin and Red Box (probably others too... entry is quick and easy.) They're all pretty much working the same schtick - even Maccas has hit the gourmet button (https://mcdonalds.co.nz/create-your-taste.) Beyond that, all the gastro pubs now offer and aggressively market their burger offerings (Fox and Ferret, Cafe De la Mer, Engineers, Pedal Pusher...) The number of deals (especially - 2 for 1 - through online 'deal' sites, Facebook pages etc) suggests it's a difficult market to keep traction in. Unlimited NZ growth is not a given, and the degree of profitability from their new stores will be crucial.

The US situation is not one to gloss over either, they generated the 'overly optimistic price' with talk of 1000 stores in 8 years - 9 months on from that puffery they still have...none.

Tastes like a high risk proposition to me. GLTH.

[Harvey Specter]

Unlimited NZ growth is not a given, and the degree of profitability from their new stores will be crucial.
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turnover in all NZ stores is going great. It's funny you meantion Chch as the first store is absolutely smashing it that the franchisees haves opened two more. I don't think they are outside CHCH in the south Island yet so plenty of potential for new store growth - I think a timura store is just waiting on the building to be complete.

But yes, "unlimited" growth will not be achieved.

[Hectorplains]

turnover in all NZ stores is going great. It's funny you meantion Chch as the first store is absolutely smashing it that the franchisees haves opened two more. I don't think they are outside CHCH in the south Island yet so plenty of potential for new store growth - I think a timura store is just waiting on the building to be complete.

But yes, "unlimited" growth will not be achieved.

Their Invercargill store is already open - late last year. Just out of interest how do you know that the Christchurch store is "absolutely smashing it"? In the accounts they're all lumped together as the "NZ sector."

[silverblizzard888]

Their Invercargill store is already open - late last year. Just out of interest how do you know that the Christchurch store is "absolutely smashing it"? In the accounts they're all lumped together as the "NZ sector."

Any person living in Christchurch that is a regular at burgerfuel would tell you the store in Christchurch is doing amazingly well.

[Hectorplains]

Any person living in Christchurch that is a regular at burgerfuel would tell you the store in Christchurch is doing amazingly well.

Hmmm, on opening 2 years ago maybe. Yeah, they are popular but well short of the superlatives that are getting chucked around here. They described the NZ fast food market as "over saturated" (dear me...) yet are committed to expanding into it. Add to that poor growth in Australia and no growth in the US, I imagine that those cash reserves are taking a beating. Wouldn't be surprised to see a CR this year.

[silverblizzard888]

Hmmm, on opening 2 years ago maybe. Yeah, they are popular but well short of the superlatives that are getting chucked around here. They described the NZ fast food market as "over saturated" (dear me...) yet are committed to expanding into it. Add to that poor growth in Australia and no growth in the US, I imagine that those cash reserves are taking a beating. Wouldn't be surprised to see a CR this year.

I have a decade worth of restaurant experience and I judge the peak and down time for customers and from my view the store brings in very good numbers. If they did a capital raising it would be money for expansion rather than them being in trouble.

[Hectorplains]

I have a decade worth of restaurant experience and I judge the peak and down time for customers and from my view the store brings in very good numbers. If they did a capital raising it would be money for expansion rather than them being in trouble.

While the Riccarton store does a good trade, it's numbers are way down on previous (long gone are the long queues) and they now have some serious competition too. On-line reviews suggest a mixed customer experience.

The cash chest they had was earmarked for expansion. The middle east is static. In Aussie and the US (- when they actually open there) they're a 'me-too' in a cluttered field. NZ revenues won't support their overseas plans and there overseas expansion to date has been less than stellar.

It wouldn't take much of a slow down in revenue growth for this stock to be in trouble. Even on the current sp it still trades at crazy multiples. They need everything to line up to support that - to me though they're looking at some huge head winds.

[Hectorplains]

I was in the Riveria of the South Island for the weekend. The position of BF's Timaru site looks good. The store seems a wee way off opening thou' - I thought they'd hired staff at the end of last year and they'd be under way by now?

[Harvey Specter]

I was in the Riveria of the South Island for the weekend. The position of BF's Timaru site looks good. The store seems a wee way off opening thou' - I thought they'd hired staff at the end of last year and they'd be under way by now?

Another month or two - The staff haven't started training yet last I heard. Pita Pit, Columbus Coffee and Hells going next door so the area should draw people in.

Considering the drive through at McD down the round gets to over flowing on a Friday night (and the KFC pretty close to overflowing too) it should do well.

[fungus pudding]

Another month or two - The staff haven't started training yet last I heard. Pita Pit, Columbus Coffee and Hells going next door so the area should draw people in.

Considering the drive through at McD down the round gets to over flowing on a Friday night (and the KFC pretty close to overflowing too) it should do well.

If anyone wants to see how burgers are sold, it's almost worth a trip to Fergburger in Queenstown. Permanent queue, not just in the street but up the street. It's an amazing operation.