GXL Greencross Limited/ Veterinarians

[Lizard]

I have to admit I'm surprised that a year later they are at $2.57, having achieved eps growth of 40%. It was a good ride and I got out at around $2.

They seem to be ticking along, running the model very well. However, the value gap that was evident last year has now closed, so the share price trend will have to slow. They're forecasting at least 15% growth in eps again this year - achieving 40% probably tougher off this higher base. If shares stay up here though, it may be worth either using an equity component in acquisitions or running a rights issue/cap raising to support future growth.

So, well if there is one share I keep kicking myself on, it is GXL, now at $7.16. If I'd held in there from my buy price at 69 - 85cps, I could have been counting the bags! Instead, I was out just below $2 and thought I'd done well.... Phaedrus would have had great pleasure in putting up a chart to humble my ego!

[percy]

So, well if there is one share I keep kicking myself on, it is GXL, now at $7.16. If I'd held in there from my buy price at 69 - 85cps, I could have been counting the bags! Instead, I was out just below $2 and thought I'd done well.... Phaedrus would have had great pleasure in putting up a chart to humble my ego!

You are not alone !!!!!

[blocker3]

Originally Posted by KW
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.



KW This is an excellent piece of information you have passed on .Thank You.

As I read your Post I recall what had happened to myself in the past .An example of this is with Greencross with my pre entered STOPLOSS. I knew that the instant share price crash happened for a reason but I could not pin it down.As a result my Stoploss triggered and I was wondering what the hell happen here and for what reason and so fast. ( ie 5 minutes)

Now after reading your post I can see why.

Snakes in the grass looking for a feast of cheap shares by suddenly dropping the share price of excellent shares like Greencross.

Then instantly buying in after the crash they caused.

You are the first person to state what I have suffered in the past with stoploss and I was wondering why beforehand.

Cheers for that once again

Last edited by blocker3; Today at 08:18 PM.

[blocker3]

This stock has taken a hit over the last few days and including myself.It has done me well in the past .Anyone else out there still holding also.?

[Entrep]

Legendary post by KW above!

[winner69]

Still trending up ....close to 10 bucks now

An acquisition announced the other day

[blocker3]

Still trending up ....close to 10 bucks now

An acquisition announced the other day

Yes winner69 so true.

When the share price was around the $2.50 mark my late Father in law encouraged me to buy GXL.So I did at soon after. Back then he said that it would be a $10.00 share.

He was so right.

Futher more this company is still growing. Where to next.....

[blocker3]

Did anyone else buy into the 15:1 share offer?

First time I used BPAY. Fantastic for only a $12 fee to buy shares

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Sydney Morning Herald today:

"The removal of David Jones will allow the entrance of vet group Greencross into the top 200."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...#ixzz37Ump5UTG

[Toulouse - Luzern]

and the days move so far:

993.5 ¢ents (AUD)

+ 38.5 cents + 4%

15/07 13:20 AET