GOLD

[ananda77]

...entry point US$1007(+) did not happen despite an almost perfect storm around the gold market

...now give me US$ 991(+) for an entry

as John Hussman mentions:

You simply cannot have an economy lend out trillions of dollars in bad debt, and then make the lenders whole with public funds (while still facing a massive second wave of probable mortgage defaults) without destructive repercussions. There is very little chance, in my view, that the current downturn is over. We have enjoyed a nice reprieve – if over a trillion dollars in redistribution could not accomplish even a reprieve, it would be a surprise. It's clear that investors are hopeful that we can simply return to rich valuations, debt-financed economic expansion, and abnormal profit margins based on excessive leverage. From my perspective, this hope is as thin as those that we observed at the peak of the internet bubble, the housing bubble, and the profit margin peak of 2007.
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090601.htm

...and although the timing is difficult to determine now, the next, even more devastating leg down is in the making right now and I think, we all know what another down leg will do to the price of gold...

Kind Regards

[Mick100]

[arco]

I don't think we know for sure if gold has finished the recent up-move, but it has broken below the steep up-trend line and is currently testing it. Here is a chart looking at a scenario where it might fall back. The chart should be self explanatory and shows a possible Gartley at around 850. The more shallow green slatted line is the long term up-trend.

I cant see it dropping much lower that 850 if its doing a retrace.

[srotherh]

Arco
What would happen if you charted it in NZD terms

[arco]

Arco
What would happen if you charted it in NZD terms

Action is just holding on the long term line uptrend and in an area of potential support.

Interesting to note the MA's have crossed (Dead Cross) and are currently acting resistively. Oscillators are dithering below their centre lines.

Could go either way at this point.

Post the updated chart again in 7-10 days, lets see if anything has broken one way or the other.

[TTrader]

I don't think we know for sure if gold has finished the recent up-move, but it has broken below the steep up-trend line and is currently testing it. Here is a chart looking at a scenario where it might fall back. The chart should be self explanatory and shows a possible Gartley at around 850. The more shallow green slatted line is the long term up-trend.

I cant see it dropping much lower that 850 if its doing a retrace.

[IMGw]http://iforce.co.nz/i/yowr5vmy.gif[/IMGw]

I really can't see the POG going bellow 850 any time soon. Even high 800's will be pushing it, by that time I think we will see another large buy up in Asia which should hold the price.

Gold is at the point now where it will only drop so far before we see large buys on consumer and government levels.

[Lego_Man]

How does the logic of trying to do TA on the price of gold in NZD work?

How can there be "support" and "resistance" of something when that thing is solely the function of 2 other independent variables?

It makes about as much sense to me as charting the S&P in terms of the spot price of live hogs and trying to make projections.

[arco]

How does the logic of trying to do TA on the price of gold in NZD work?

How can there be "support" and "resistance" of something when that thing is solely the function of 2 other independent variables?

It makes about as much sense to me as charting the S&P in terms of the spot price of live hogs and trying to make projections.

You can chart a comparison with anything you like - e.g. DJIA relative to Gold.

.

[srotherh]

How does the logic of trying to do TA on the price of gold in NZD work?

How can there be "support" and "resistance" of something when that thing is solely the function of 2 other independent variables?

It makes about as much sense to me as charting the S&P in terms of the spot price of live hogs and trying to make projections.

And does every other market not have more than one variable.
Surely charts are a historical map of the interaction of all variables which people watch to indicate the areas of support and resistance going forward.
why study the $US- Gold chart only when investing in $NZ. Why not observe both.???

[Lego_Man]

Where i am coming from is that the value of the NZD is inconsequential relative to the value of gold, thus what exactly is "resisting" gold moving above or below a point in NZD terms? Putting gold in nzd terms is almost converting it to an entirely different measure, albeit one that still retains some of its correlation to itself.

I just dont see how there can be anything but very weak TA relationships in such a derivative measure. I mean what happens when "NZD gold" reaches a resistance point? Who steps in to short it? Who even cares that such a point is reached? It just seems pretty illusory to me.