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Thread: GOLD

  1. #16
    Guru peat's Avatar
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    a big night for the metals both of them broaching the highs from earlier this month
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  2. #17
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    Gold Fields, the fourth-largest gold producer in the world, has said it expects production at its South African facilities to drop between 15 percent and 20 percent as a result of the country’s ongoing electricity crisis. Two other leading South African gold producers are expected to announce production dips as well. While the situation exemplifies the importance of electricity supplies and infrastructure in developing countries, this might also be a move to control gold prices.


    AngloGold Ashanti, the world’s third-largest producer, could project a loss of 400,000 ounces of gold at its South African operations, while Harmony Gold Mining Co. could project a loss of almost 26,000 ounces from its South African operations as a result of power outages in the country.
    South Africa’s primary domestic energy producer, Eskom, saw its generating capacity reduced by a fifth because of repairs and maintenance ahead of an expected surge in demand during the upcoming South African winter season. Poor planning (including inadequate stockpiling of coal reserves) and a dearth of qualified engineers and technicians have contributed to the crisis, which has included load-shedding throughout the country that has disrupted not only mining operations but also supplies to all consumers, including residences and business offices.
    The South African government is attempting to fix the electricity crisis; it has moved to reopen shuttered coal-fired power plants, and it has advertised tenders for the construction of new plants, including nuclear ones. The construction of new power plants likely will take at least a couple of decades, and in the meantime, all sectors of the South African economy — including its critical mining sector — likely will have to make due with an estimated 10 percent less electricity in the short term.
    While the South African electricity crisis does threaten output in the country’s mining sector — a critical driver of the country’s economy — the move could be an attempt by gold producers or gold-producing countries to manipulate prices. Barrick Gold Corp., the world’s leading producer, reportedly said Feb. 21 that labor and other supply chain disruptions (such as heavy rains) in late 2007 at its mines in Tanzania reduced production in that country. Newmont Mining Corp., the second-largest gold producer, reportedly said Feb. 19 that output at its Peruvian mines fell 39 percent in 2007, and gold output overall in Peru — which ranks fifth in global production — fell 17 percent in 2007.
    South Africa’s economy overall is likely to see its 2008 growth rates lowered because of the electricity crisis. However, reduced output and high demand have helped propel the price of gold to record highs — a circumstance not unfavorable to gold-producing companies and countries.
    Last edited by peat; 27-02-2008 at 06:45 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #18
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    Went short USD/Zar, expanding triangle on 3 hour and daily chart and currently looks overbought

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    Default Shorted GLD

    Long term trend line and two fib levels hopefully acting as resistance... good risk reward in my opinion stop at 942.15


  5. #20
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    'Urban miners' fleece cellphones for precious metals

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...0506650&pnum=0



    Eco-System, established 20 years ago near Tokyo, typically produces about 200-300 kg of gold bars a month with a 99.99 per cent purity, worth about $5.9 million to $8.8 million.
    That's about the same output as a small gold mine.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #21
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    Could be relevant to gold and silver.....



    The
    price of platinum could increase by 50% in 2008, according to a
    poll of analysts by the Reuters news agency. Prices are pushed higher
    by production problems in South Africa and a rise in demand for
    catalytic converters using the metal to filter fumes. The poll sees the
    median price of platinum at US$2,000 an ounce in 2008 and US$2,100
    in 2009. It was US$1,304 in 2007. Anglo American, which produces

    40% of world platinum output, has been hit by power cuts and strikes
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #22
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    Elliot Wave .com are kinda gloomy at times but when theres a free week on their website as there is now its a good time to read it....




    So I sold gold to hedge my silver positions tonite....
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  8. #23
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    imho can't see gold fall down through 800 but hey anything can happen the USD has gained well against the EURO still USA #1 export is paper money mid to long term GOLD going alot higher
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

  9. #24
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    look at what greenspan wrote in 1967 !

    http://www.cyclesman.com/greenspan1967.htm
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  10. #25
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    a little while ago I unhedged
    small profit on the gold trade... tho gold can go 930 without breaking ew interpretation...
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  11. #26
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    Released over the weekend.
    Quote Originally Posted by Max McKegg
    Gold has rallied nicely toward Inverse Head and Shoulders Neckline Resistance as expected (see Daily Chart below) & with Support now at $910/$905 looking for Gold to now complete this Inverse Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with another rally today, confirming the resumption of Gold’s Uptrend - toward new highs for the year !

    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #27
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    Gold Weekly Chart

    Perfect AB=CD, with support from Triangle consolidation
    Oct-Nov 2007

    ................so this looks like a fairly good spot to
    load up the wagon with low risk IMO

    Target 1100-1200



    arco
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  13. #28
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    Default Now that is interesting.............

    The most useful EMA indicator for trading gold over nearly 32 years was to buy gold when the U.S. dollar crosses below its 7-week EMA and to sell gold when the dollar crosses above its 7-week EMA. This inverse strategy would have gained more than 889% before trading costs and without any leverage. Nearly 52% of the 282 trades would have been profitable, which is pretty good for a trend-following strategy.
    Gold moves directly with the trend of the Swiss franc (using a 5-week EMA crossover) and the trend of crude oil (using a 12-week EMA crossover). These make good intuitive sense: Gold should go up when the Swiss franc (a hard currency with gold backing) and crude oil (another inflation-sensitive commodity) are rising.
    My testing found an inverse relationship with gold and 10-year T-note yields. This might be spurious, however, because it lacks logic and has been unprofitable since 2003, as 10-year interest rates and gold both rose together. I also doubt the validity of trading gold based on the DJIA or S&P 500. Stocks are not always a good hedge against inflation, and this indicator's Cumulative Equity Curve is too erratic to be reliable.
    I conclude that the U.S. dollar (inverse trend), Swiss franc (direct trend), and crude oil (direct trend) are the best and most logical external relationship trend indicators for gold. ...........................


    These indicators have been much more profitable than the trend of the gold price itself.
    Robert W. Colby is an analyst/strategist for TradingEducation.com and a consultant to institutional and private investors and traders. A serious student of investing for nearly 40 years, Colby is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators. (TradingEducation.com) (robertwcolby.com)

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/divining-golds-next-move/story.aspx?guid={5CABD9A0-0CAC-4439-88F0-1A3E23A9F412}
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  14. #29
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    Gold and Silver: Looking More Precious,

    In June, South Africa saw its gold production plummet 12.3% year over year as power cuts interrupted mining. The country has now fallen firmly behind China in global gold production.
    Meanwhile, demand is still rising from both funds (a new gold fund recently opened in Hong Kong) and people who tuck gold away under the mattress.
    Last week, the World Gold Council reported that demand for gold rose 7% to 736 metric tonnes in the second quarter, compared with the first quarter. And the pace of buying may be picking up gold dealers in Singapore and Dubai have reported turning away customers looking for one-ounce coins, while the Times of India reports "a shortage of the yellow metal" at local bullion banks.
    Money is also pouring into Barclay's iShares Silver Trust (SLV). It now holds 208 million ounces of silver nearly 40% of annual global mine production and the trust recently had to add more than 8.5 million ounces of silver in just three days!
    In one of the more eyebrow-raising stories I've seen lately, the U.S. Mint briefly suspended sales of American Eagle bullion coins. Government officials say sales are about 50% more than in all of 2007.
    "Due to the unprecedented demand for American Eagle gold one-ounce bullion coins, our inventories have been depleted. We are therefore temporarily suspending all sales of these coins," the U.S. Mint told authorized coin dealers. "We hope to resume sales shortly."
    American Eagle gold coins are in short supply right now ... The Mint did resume sales, but on a limited basis literally rationing American Eagles among its customers. Here's a clear-cut case of supply being unable to meet demand.
    It seems to me that the price of gold in the futures market is too low, pushed down by the frantic selling of hedge funds that are leveraged to their eyeballs.
    There's only one way to fix this disconnect higher prices. And as hedge funds rush to cover, the snap-back could make your head spin.

    Sean Brodrick
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  15. #30
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    Default re silver.....

    its possible though, and I seem to recall reading it somewhere that there is no shortage of actual silver.... merely a shortage of pressed Eagles.... because the USA govt is obliged by law to provide these to people when they want them. I'm no conspiracy nut but it does seem odd that they wont provide Eagles even when the price has fallen so far and there must be the actual stuff available at these lower prices. so it does make one wonder what is going on... eg fuel for conspiracy theories.

    I guess I find it hard to believe in a shortage when the price has plummetted so much recently. I still have 2/3rds of my accumulated holding (silver) but my stop lossed got triggered on the other. I'm still buying the occasional coin on TradeMe where I can acquire it at bullion value.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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