GOLD

[arco]

anyone fancy going to auckland sharetrader meeting , we havent caught up for a while , Peat Arco anyone ?

Might be able to depending on date? Has that been decided yet (and venue).

arco

[Dr_Who]

WOW... looks like gold maybe heading for $1000 mark again.

[dumbass]

Might be able to depending on date? Has that been decided yet (and venue).

arco

i think the votes are still being counted

[JBmurc]

wow nearly $1500ozAUD wasn't long ago gold bugs though $1000aud was a great achivement now add it the fact Gold producers costs are reducing going be some nice gains in some of the ASX jnrs
DIO producing 90k oz ,IRN sitting on share of a massive copper/gold deposit,neither hegded
HGD,OGC also worth buying in the dips

[Aussie]

Hourly Action In Gold From Trader Dan
Posted: Jan 30 2009 By: Dan Norcini Post Edited: January 30, 2009 at 3:47 pm

Dear CIGAs,
Gold buying accelerated as Europe opened for trading in the overnight hours here in the States with the currency crisis the main factor propelling European based gold prices sharply higher. Paper is definitely OUT in Europe and metal is in. I suppose what is so revealing about this is that is marks an abrupt reversal from a pattern that has been seen for most of the better part of the entire near-9 year bull market in gold. Asian buying would take the metal higher whereupon the return of Europe based traders to their desks, it would be summarily derailed around the 2:00 AM CST period. What is happening now is that the price is accelerating higher near or about this hour. It has become obvious that a sea-change in sentiment towards the yellow metal has occurred in Europe and particularly in Britain. With no where to put money for a safe haven as bonds become suspect, gold is seeing significant hedge fund activity which is beating back the incessant selling by the bullion banks. That buying drove Gold priced in Euro terms to another brand new, all-time high for the London PM Fix at €715.620. Euro gold has taken out €700, quite a significant feat! So much for the deflationists’ arguments…

Once trade moved into New York, the bullion banks resurfaced in force and attempt to stem the tide. Today they initially showed their hand near and above the $920 level. Their footprint is more than obvious for those who can read price charts. However, in what must have been quite a stunner to these bullies of the sand box, they were beaten back out of their castle as the bulls pushed right through their picket lines. They have been feverishly attempting to stem the rise near $920 as failure means the highs made back in September-October last year around the $940 level would then be in play. If those give way, $1000 is a given and they know it.

The fly in the gold ointment however is once again, the mining shares which were whacked well off their session highs in a near perfect copy of Monday’s performance. The battle for 310 in the HUI and 127 in the XAU is quite fierce as the trapped shorts seem to be literally mounting a life or death defense of those levels. So far the bulls simply cannot dislodge them from their lairs but the day is not done yet and the longs are also showing some mettle for a change as they push the indices back up off the session lows. A strong closing breach of those levels, especially coming at the end of the week and thus painting a very strong showing on the weekly price charts, is something that the shorts are desperately trying to prevent. They know that a technical breakout will bring even more money into the gold shares which will overwhelm them and that is the reason we are seeing such fierce opposition coming in near those levels. I am sure that they are quite concerned about the reported record inflows in the largest gold ETF – GLD. That is why observing this kind of fierce and determined selling in the face of what is evidently a significant move into all things gold is so noteworthy. Just who sells like this and does so in such huge size when the path of least resistance is up?

Technically gold has CONFIRMED yesterday’s bounce off of the top of the triangular consolidation formation – the downsloping trendline which it broke out above earlier this week and then came back down and touched before ricocheting sharply upward off of that same line. The price action in this market is textbook and its behavior is more like I have come to observe in a normal, freely-traded market, bullion bank capping efforts notwithstanding. The fact that it has been performing so well-behaved tells me that serious buying has come into this market, buying which makes itself known on any price dips. Simply put – the safe haven flow into bonds has completely dried up and gold has now become the go-to vehicle. (I will show this on the Gold/Bond ratio chart which I will send up later this afternoon or evening). If the funds will stick to their guns, there is no reason that they cannot dislodge the bullion banks out of their defensive lines since the fundamentals are on the side of the longs. Keep in mind that the gold universe is still rather small in size and that it does not take all that much money to push it around.

I will be switching to the April gold contract for analysis purposes last week as the February has gone into its delivery period. Speaking of that, delivery notices for the first day of the period were strong, not as strong as December’s which stunned many observers as it came in at 8,600. By contrast, February’s first day were a mere 1,644 or 164,400 ounces. While I am glad to see the bulls shoving the perma gold shorts around for a change, the way to drive a final nail in the coffin and put these vampires to rest for good is to continue taking delivery of the gold and physically removing it from the Comex warehouses. Without the backing of physical gold in the warehouses, the shorts haven’t a leg to stand on and can be easily defeated.
Open interest is still a miniscule 348,000 contracts, far, far off from the peak made back when gold took out $1,000 where it peaked above 593,000. Can you see why this market is in such a bullish posture with the open interest readings at such a low level and gold less than $80 away from the $1,000 level? The funds could add another 150,000 new longs and the open interest would still be almost 100, 000 off the peak! That is simply astonishing to this long-time trader. It is difficult trying to maintain a modicum of objectivity and not let one’s emotions cloud their judgment when analyzing this market simply because even contemplating another 100,000 new longs along, much less 150,000 or even 200,000 and $1500 gold would be a given. The bullion banks are going to have to absorb a tremendous amount of buying to merely keep gold from charging to $1000.
Resistance for gold is near the $938-$940 level and above that at $950. Support remains first near the $900 level and then at yesterday’s lows around the $880 level.

Equities continue swooning as further details of the government’s “stimulus” bill become known and the thing is seen for what it really is – a gigantic pork-ladened spending orgy which will do little in the way of creating any lasting jobs in the bill’s current form. Bonds still do not like it because they continue to remain focused on the enormous supply of debt coming down the road that is going to be created as a result of this boondoggle.

Click link to enlarge today’s hourly action in Gold in PDF format with commentary from Trader Dan Norcini

http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/...d1230pmcdt.pdf

[ananda77]

...there was a news item on TV3 tonight, sorry just saw 1oz Kiwi gold coins and a guy talking about the start of an extremely golden bull run for the next 20 years...

Kind Regards

[Financially dependant]

An interesting article by Clive Maund I stole of HC...

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

[shasta]

An interesting article by Clive Maund I stole of HC...

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

UBS raises 2009 gold forecast to $1,000/oz, ups silver, platinum

London (Platts)--4Feb2009UBS has raised its average gold price forecast to $1,000/oz for 2009, andexpects the strength in gold to pull prices for silver and platinum up alongwith it, the investment bank said Wednesday. "Purchases of physical gold have jumped over the past six months asinvestors' fears about the current financial crisis and the possible outcomesfrom government efforts to support banks and economies have intensified," UBSsaid. "We believe that a doubling in investment demand (compared to 2007) is areasonable assumption considering the recent inflows into the gold ETFs, wherethe past six months of purchases has totalled 8.65 million oz, slightly morethan the full-year inflow of 8.1 million oz into these products in 2007," thecompany said. This figure is also consistent with the reports of physical investmentflows into bars and coins over the past six months and estimates by a UK-basedconsultancy GFMS of bar hoarding in the second half of 2008, UBS suggested. "Based on simple regression modelling we estimate that this will drivegold to an average $1,000/oz in 2009, from $700/oz previously," UBS said. "For2010 we have assumed that investment demand will fall back to the already highlevels seen in 2008, which generates a gold price of approximately $900/oz,and we see the gold price falling back further to $800/oz in 2011." RAISES 20089 SILVER FORECAST TO $14.75/OZ The company has also raised its silver price forecast for the period,noting that "compared to gold, silver does not have as wide an appeal as asafe-haven investment, the metal is not without its adherents: as gold moveshigher, silver tends to follow." UBS now sees silver averaging $14.75/oz in 2009 and $12.80/oz in 2010,from its previous forecasts of $8.40/oz and $8.95/oz, respectively. "The metal's greater proportion of industrial applications has seensilver underperform gold over the past year ... but a rising price environmentfor gold should see silver reverse some of this underperformance," UBS said. In addition, there are indications from the recent performance of silverthat the metal has been able to lose some of its industrial tarnish, the banksaid, adding that correlations with the copper price - which increased in2008 as silver fell sharply - have recently declined, while silver'scorrelation with gold has increased back toward historical norms. "Consequently we have made greater upgrades to the silver price comparedto gold," UBS said. "But despite this, silver's historically highervolatility, especially to the downside during times of correction, makes it ariskier investment than gold." PLATINUM 2009 FORECAST UP, PALLADIUM UNCHANGED UBS has raised its average platinum forecast for 2009 to $1,050/oz from$900/oz, and left its 2010 forecast unchanged at $1,100/oz. "Platinum very rarely trades at a discount to gold and when it does, thediscounts are short-lived," the bank noted. The market is seeing somesafe-haven buying, jewelry demand remains relatively buoyant compared to otherprecious metals, and the destocking by automotive companies which hit pricesin 2008 is unlikely to be repeated, UBS suggested. The bank left its forecast for palladium unchanged at $190/oz in 2009 and$233/oz in 2010. "We have made no changes to our forecasts for palladium, where theinterplay between limited safe-haven demand, ample above-ground stocks andpoor industrial demand has left the palladium market steady around our priorforecast levels," UBS said.Similar stories appear in Platts Metals Week.See more information at http://plattsmetals.platts.com


Instead of merely posting a link, i'll nominate the 3 stocks i think represent best value for the article above.

Gold - NEM: A 5m/oz+ Gold producer, no hedging, pays dividends

Silver - CXC: FY09 ramp up is for 23m/oz Silver & 140k/oz Gold

PGM's - PLA: A Platinum producer (+ other precious metals)

[arco]

Instead of merely posting a link, i'll nominate the 3 stocks i think represent best value for the article above.

Gold - NEM: A 5m/oz+ Gold producer, no hedging, pays dividends

Silver - CXC: FY09 ramp up is for 23m/oz Silver & 140k/oz Gold

PGM's - PLA: A Platinum producer (+ other precious metals)

Very helpful information for consideration Shasta - thanks

arco

[Aussie]

"My guess is the panic into precious metals is going to begin in earnest when the sovereign states start to default . . . Populations are only then going to realise the true implications of a broken banking system when the ability of their own government to keep the dream alive disappears."