GOLD

[beacon]

Quite frankly thats a ridiculous idea. Although I may be overestimating peoples intelligence I dont think you'd get too many takers on that one

It doesnt take into account the primary reason why people buy gold and accept it as a store of wealth

People believe that in a time of systemic financial system breakdown (when all fiat currencies effectively become worthless ) that their gold or silver may still be able to get them goods and services...

I dont think those certificates would work too well in that scenario as they are just another fiat currency.... backed by the same people who (at that stage) will have failed you in the previous one.

Second that Peat.

[winner69]

Have a look at LGL Lihir Gold

Probably one of the 'cheapest' producers on the ASX / well positioned to do even better if the price of gold jumps again / and big enough that if Newcrest want to get more gold reserves to balance their overweight copper position Lihir would be the target

Posted that 2 weeks ago

Hey it all came true ...... LGL up 30% odd today on Newcrest bid

[fwu005]

well if your after bigger gains but with little more risk buying gold jnrs like -CVX,NAV,IAU reason being the costs to find decent discoverys an time frame to get into production means most majors like NCM,NEM,LGL etc are far better taking over jnrs than exploring new areas an as GOLD price moves futher north so will the value of gold discoverys

Thanks recommendations from JBmurc and Winner69. I bought a little LGL and some NAV, are both on very good gain. is it ok still holding them ?

[JBmurc]

no harm on taking some profits on LGL----- NAV's looking real good I'd hold CVX a outside with mid term growth good buying sub 10c

[Dr_Who]

Welldone guys. Just FYI Macbank have upgraded LGL to $4.50.

disc: not a holder

[Nevl]

Well personal I acutally do hold 45kilos of silver bullion as I do believe Silver will outperform gold by quite the margin..

But yeah say as of tonight 1oz NZ gold price close up against 1000 Lloyds an RBS shares in their NZD currency value on their close...mmmm hope you don't invest all your money into UK banks might end up having to make your own fireworks in 2014

Ok a 6 month stock take on my bank shares. I am up about 60%

Hows your gold looking?

4.5 years to go.

[JBmurc]

Ok a 6 month stock take on my bank shares. I am up about 60%

Hows your gold looking?

4.5 years to go.

If I was you I'd be selling 60% is a nice profit just alittle behind my NAV investment
GOLD has yet to really shine If you view the 10yr GOLD chart on the asx.gold thread your see what I mean GOLD is trending up as long as Central Banks create trillions n trillions of new Tenders of exhange----

[Nevl]

If I was you I'd be selling 60% is a nice profit just alittle behind my NAV investment
GOLD has yet to really shine If you view the 10yr GOLD chart on the asx.gold thread your see what I mean GOLD is trending up as long as Central Banks create trillions n trillions of new Tenders of exhange----

Yeah long way to run but I thought I would get in a little gloat while I can. Could be a case of speaking too soon.

RBS is looking better than I thought and the Lloyds rights issue helped a lot. Still if RBS goes back to the same level of profits or close to of pre crisis levels then there is another 100% to be made. RBS is worth about $30bill at the moment and can easily make $8bill per year. I think it will survive and do well.

[JBmurc]

SA gold sector at a tipping point
Brendan Ryan | Wed, 21 Apr 2010 11:02
[miningmx.com] -- THE declining South African gold industry is fast approaching a tipping point where further restructuring will be needed resulting in the loss of many more thousands of jobs.
Thats the view of Gold Fields CEO Nick Holland who, in a wide ranging interview with Miningmx, said that a solution is needed this calendar year.
Holland added, 2010 is crunch time for the industry. We need to do something within the next three months to start moving to a different strategy otherwise its not going to be good for anybody.
Holland was speaking against the background of a string of problems that have hamstrung the SA gold mines over the past 18 months - in particular the strength of the rand against the US dollar.
This has put a cap on the revenues being earned by the SA gold mines despite the rising dollar price of gold while the industrys costs have been rising inexorably.
The current rand gold price of around R270,000/kg is nearly 20% lower than the level of R330,000/kg reached early in 2009 when the dollar gold price was around $920/oz compared with the current $1,140/oz.
Harmony this week announced it was closing another three marginal shafts bringing the total number of shafts shut down by the group in the past year to seven.
Holland commented, absent a significant increase in productivity then, unless we see a major change in the rand gold price, some kind of rationalisation of the industry looks more and more probable.
He added, thousands of jobs are at risk because the gold industry is top heavy given the current level of production. We have to claw back some productivity or the inevitable is going to happen and we will be forced into a downscaling exercise.
I dont want to put those people on the street. I want to preserve jobs. I am trying to find a win-win situation with government and organised labour but we are running out of time.
Looking on the positive side Holland said he believed a realistic solution could be found. An increase in gold production of just 10% from current levels would be sufficient to create sustainability.
Holland commented, we have a very high level of fixed costs in this business and the problem is that we are not working the orebodies hard enough.
Another 10% in gold production would make a phenomenal difference to the bottom-line.
Holland singled out the number of working shifts being lost for a variety of reasons over and above normal holiday periods as the key issue.
He said, we have to mine at a rate which allows us to recover our costs and make a return but we lost around 8% of our total shifts last year.
We are not getting enough blasts at the mining faces. The production of ore from the mines is not enough to support the on-going cost structure of the industry.
Hollands proposed solution is a six-day working week with every second Saturday being a compulsory working shift.
He commented, that would add an extra month to our working operations. That would make the difference between having sustainable operations and being forced into a downscaling exercise.
Holland said Gold Fields was in the process of debating the proposed six day week with the unions but had not yet come to terms with them.
He said, my approach is that - if not the six day week then what? I am open to ideas but we can only find a solution through a constructive approach by labour, ourselves and government.
Asked about the recent mining summit Holland commented, the main focus was on transformation of the industry and I dont have a problem with that.
Its important that the SA mining industry reflects the demographics of our society and I have bought into that.
Overall, I can see what the Department of Mineral Resources is trying to achieve and I really believe we have to transform.
We have made considerable progress over the past five years although it has not been as rapid as we would like. It has not been easy because the pool of talent in the country is very small.
We have to train more people ourselves which is why Gold Fields is investing R26m in the mining engineering faculties at the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg.

[JBmurc]

Gold Most Likely to Double: Puru Saxena

23 April 2010, 04:37 p.m. EST
By John Dourekas
Of Kitco News



Hong Kong (Kitco News) -- Gold will most likely double from its current $1150 an ounce during the course of the bull market, according to Puru Saxena, founder of Puru Saxena Wealth Management.

In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, Saxena said one major factor in gold’s favor "is that central banks have now become net buyers of gold. So that reduces supply from the market,” said Saxena.

Investment demand will appreciate over time as people become more dubious over currencies and they transfer assets into gold as a hedge, said the investment adviser from his Hong Kong office.

He thinks inflation will occur at an accelerated pace over the next few years. "Real interest rates are negative in most countries, so gold should continue to benefit purely as an anti-currency because people lost faith in the euro and the dollar," he said. "At some point people are going to say well, ‘we don’t want to lose purchasing power in currencies that are dubious, we want gold as an insurance.’”

Saxena is not so optimistic, however, for base metals, which he said are likely to struggle. “If you look at the inventory levels at the London Metals Exchange, the stockpiles are extremely elevated and inflated," he said. "So even though copper, lead and zinc have had a big run-up since last August, inventory levels have actually increased, so that leads us to believe it is speculation.”

As for the sudden rise of palladium, Saxena cautions against this metal for now. “Palladium has gone parabolic. Usually when you have a parabolic spike they are followed by a parabolic collapse," he said. "I think palladium will have a big correction and when it does, that will be the time to buy."

Currently, Saxena said he is fully invested in his preferred companies. “We think the bull market will run for another couple of years – in my view we will see a big boom again in all asset classes,” he said.

Saxena sees more opportunities in precious metals and energy. He said that he is invested 35% in energy and 15% in precious metals. On currencies he prefers the Canadian and Australian dollar, as well as the Singaporean Dollar, Chinese Yuan and the Indian rupee.

American Revival?

Saxena does not subscribe to the bearish view that has America on the wane. “The US is still the world’s largest economy,” he said. “Surely it is losing its dominance as countries in Asia climb-up the prosperity ladder but it will be a gradual transition. I don’t think the US is going to go down in flames. Ultimately the American consumer will come roaring back.”

He is, however, skeptical of the lack of clean-up of the financial system. Throughout the recession the total debt in America has continued to expand and this is the crux of the problem, he said. “You cannot solve a problem of over-leverage and excess debt by taking on more and more debt. You can’t put band-aids on the problem or you will eventually have a currency crisis,” said Saxena.

Saxena said that over time the consequences of this will be twofold: longer term interest rates will increase substantially over the next decade and the CPI, which he calls a “terribly flawed barometer of inflation” will double in seven to eight years. In turn, he said, the US dollar’s purchasing power will diminish against hard assets.

The US has three options for survival, said Saxena, “It can either accept a painful recession. They can default because it cannot pay back liabilities or the third option is monetary inflation. I suspect they will continue to debase the value of the dollar and print greenbacks.”

In the future, Saxena said that he predicts the financial industry will become more heavily regulated. “A bank should either operate as a commercial bank with no investment banking or if you go into investment banking the government should not bail you out." "If you make mistakes you should be penalized and the bond and shareholders lose everything.”

EU Debt Crisis

Saxena is not a big fan of Europe. “I think the IMF or European Union will bail out offenders but that is a band-aid on the problem and it will be a long-term negative effect for the euro," he said. "I think the euro is a terribly flawed currency because you have so many different nations with different objectives, requirements and problems all lumped into one basket.”

The problems with Western Europe are the same as in the US, said Saxena. “Too many excesses; too much credit; too much consumption and not enough savings.”

No End for Goldman

Saxena said Goldman Sachs has been made a scapegoat and will survive the tribulation. “The biggest offenders are Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the regulators themselves because all these shenanigans were occurring right under their noses," he said. "Regulators knew what was going on… So I think to come back at Goldman alone is a bit unfair –I think you have to go after everyone.” He said that in five years from now people will have forgotten about this ordeal.

China Correction

Property in certain cities in China are certainly overvalued, said Saxena. “If you look at Beijing and Shanghai the properties have become incredibly unaffordable -- it takes 20 years of income for the average household to buy a property,” he said.

A correction in China will occur when there is more monetary tightening, said Saxena. When this will happen? Saxena does not know. “One thing working in favor of Chinese assets is that China doesn’t allow the Chinese to invest overseas – so the money is all contained within the economy,” he said.

As for the purchase of the IMF’s 191.3 tonnes of gold, Saxena forecasts Asian Central Banks will purchase a significant amount. “Over time as these cash piles for China and India continue to get bigger and bigger with foreign exchange reserves, they will turn towards buying hard assets,” said Saxena. He does not think IMF gold sales are a big threat to the markets as they were four or five years ago.

Market Manipulation?

Regarding rumored gold market manipulation by the major banking powers, Saxena has some suspicions and would not be surprised if some paper selling was occurring to keep the gold price down.

“The central and private banks make their money by promoting the fiat money system –if the price of gold suddenly jumps fivefold, that is a red flag that there is something seriously wrong with the system," he said. "It would not be surprising for me to hear that they are suppressing the price of gold – we had the biggest financial crisis in decades and rather than increasing in value, the price of gold actually fell.”

Saxena said he has been following the work of GATA for a long time and "they make a reasonable case for that, but my argument is; what market is not manipulated? Everything is manipulated,” he added.