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09-04-2019, 08:35 PM
#7431
Originally Posted by RupertBear
Fair enough, Sharechat and the Herald reporter who wrote the article have clearly misreported Craigs recomendations then
I don't think they have misreported Craigs at all, they just turned broker speak (investment advisor they like to call it) into plain English. Craigs like other brokers have a lot of passive clients on standing instructions to maintain their portfolios to certain % levels of exposure to equities, depending on many individual factors. Nevertheless, it means 're-weighting' SUM to 0% and boosting RYM to 8% from 6% which is exactly what Sharechat and the Herald reported. Paraphrased that's sell SUM, boost RYM, sell the others if you have them. And, if your portfolio is managed by 'us', that's what we'll do (for you). They have a lot of clients as well.
This will take some time to flow through into a conclusive market response, especially with the macro economics that others have pointed out, but here we are only three days into an aggressive re-rate after a sustained SP decline (never buy a down trend?). It's not news that SUM has fallen behind expectations and the SP has clearly shown that for quite some time now, after a long sustained run up.
The big quit started 5/8 Oct 2018 (50 and 100 MA's breakdown). No amount of rationalising it will help, for example, given there are no divis anytime soon, one could have just flicked their holding at the 100DMA and sit on the sidelines again 5/4/19 patiently looking for a re-entry at much less cost and superbly better PE and ROI. But that takes real balls to bail from a long term hold, just to take advantage of what 'might' be a better capital re-entry and ROI at a lower price. The great uncertainty. Despite that, it's eventuating now.
I get it, selling a holder that's divi'ing the bank account is tough. It's gut wrenching even, as the SP grinds lower and one looks at how many years it will take for the divi to recover the capital losses, when there's no sign of the sentiment reversing that's killing our capital. It's so easy to rationalise into procrastination or doing nothing and pronounce everyone as ignorant including the market, while quietly relocating the held shares from much higher prices into the bottom drawer. Have we all got a few of these? They are the lessons, we need to keep them on the desk, front and top of mind, so we don't keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over again!
All the gnashing of teeth, spruiking, excuses and bewilderment here lately seems in denial of the plain facts, that SUM has for some years now suffered a declining % of new_sales to overall property portfolio, in the face of a staggering growth projection in new properties, so as that portfolio grows with no signs that new_sales has a recovery pathway, it's hardly a wonder that investor confidence is faltering. Their recent results make this clear and apparent. That is in addition to all the lesser inhibiting factors (imho) pointed out here recently.
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09-04-2019, 08:44 PM
#7432
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
I don't think they have misreported Craigs at all, they just turned broker speak (investment advisor they like to call it) into plain English. Craigs like other brokers have a lot of passive clients on standing instructions to maintain their portfolios to certain % levels of exposure to equities, depending on many individual factors. Nevertheless, it means 're-weighting' SUM to 0% and boosting RYM to 8% from 6% which is exactly what Sharechat and the Herald reported. Paraphrased that's sell SUM, boost RYM, sell the others if you have them. And, if your portfolio is managed by 'us', that's what we'll do (for you). They have a lot of clients as well.
This will take some time to flow through into a conclusive market response, especially with the macro economics that others have pointed out, but here we are only three days into an aggressive re-rate after a sustained SP decline (never buy a down trend?). It's not news that SUM has fallen behind expectations and the SP has clearly shown that for quite some time now, after a long sustained run up.
The big quit started 5/8 Oct 2018 (50 and 100 MA's breakdown). No amount of rationalising it will help, for example, given there are no divis anytime soon, one could have just flicked their holding at the 100DMA and sit on the sidelines again 5/4/19 patiently looking for a re-entry at much less cost and superbly better PE and ROI. But that takes real balls to bail from a long term hold, just to take advantage of what 'might' be a better capital re-entry and ROI at a lower price. The great uncertainty. Despite that, it's eventuating now.
I get it, selling a holder that's divi'ing the bank account is tough. It's gut wrenching even, as the SP grinds lower and one looks at how many years it will take for the divi to recover the capital losses, when there's no sign of the sentiment reversing that's killing our capital. It's so easy to rationalise into procrastination or doing nothing and pronounce everyone as ignorant including the market, while quietly relocating the held shares from much higher prices into the bottom drawer. Have we all got a few of these? They are the lessons, we need to keep them on the desk, front and top of mind, so we don't keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over again!
All the gnashing of teeth, spruiking, excuses and bewilderment here lately seems in denial of the plain facts, that SUM has for some years now suffered a declining % of new_sales to overall property portfolio, in the face of a staggering growth projection in new properties, so as that portfolio grows with no signs that new_sales has a recovery pathway, it's hardly a wonder that investor confidence is faltering. Their recent results make this clear and apparent. That is in addition to all the lesser inhibiting factors (imho) pointed out here recently.
Well said Baa Baa thank you
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09-04-2019, 10:03 PM
#7433
Originally Posted by winner69
be glad you didnt sell her an annuity. or is a license to occupy something similar? not really in that you dont have to regularly pay out but if everyone lived to 105 it would affect SUM profits.
So why do you say it would be good if average tenure increased W69?
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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10-04-2019, 07:59 AM
#7434
Originally Posted by RupertBear
as per link from Balance
CRAIGS: SELL SUMMERSET, BUY GENTRACK AND SCALES
Craigs Investment Partners is recommending investors sell shares in retirement village operator Summerset Group and to buy shares in utilities software provider Gentrack.
Individual brokers within Craigs take those calls as information rather than a directive.
Not a peep from mine
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10-04-2019, 08:26 AM
#7435
Originally Posted by dobby41
Individual brokers within Craigs take those calls as information rather than a directive.
Not a peep from mine
Pass an opportunity to clip the ticket and risk censure from client, Craigs, NZX & FMA in future?
You either have a lazy, brave or asleep broker!
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10-04-2019, 08:39 AM
#7436
Share price fluctuations exhibit cycles that move between periods of extreme optimism and periods of profound despair. Second, the extremes of each cycle are characterized by unusually elevated or depressed valuations, and these valuations comprise the true “meaning” of the market for Summerset investors
Sounds good eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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10-04-2019, 08:40 AM
#7437
Originally Posted by dobby41
Individual brokers within Craigs take those calls as information rather than a directive.
Not a peep from mine
your not on there A list?
one step ahead of the herd
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10-04-2019, 08:41 AM
#7438
Originally Posted by peat
be glad you didnt sell her an annuity. or is a license to occupy something similar? not really in that you dont have to regularly pay out but if everyone lived to 105 it would affect SUM profits.
So why do you say it would be good if average tenure increased W69?
Wouldn’t it be good if more and more people did enjoy much longer and happier life’s....that’s what I was saying
SUM investors might not think that is good but there’s more to life than money
After all our government well being is important ..new measures
https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Upl...9-release.xlsx
Last edited by winner69; 10-04-2019 at 08:45 AM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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10-04-2019, 08:50 AM
#7439
Originally Posted by Balance
Pass an opportunity to clip the ticket and risk censure from client, Craigs, NZX & FMA in future?
You either have a lazy, brave or asleep broker!
Brave and thinking.
Works well.
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10-04-2019, 08:53 AM
#7440
Originally Posted by winner69
Wouldn’t it be good if more and more people did enjoy much longer and happier life’s....that’s what I was saying
SUM investors might not think that is good but there’s more to life than money
After all our government well being is important ..new measures
https://www.stats.govt.nz/assets/Upl...9-release.xlsx
doing away with traditional gdp measure for social and environmental measures lol , shame you cant have all these social things without an economic vibrant economy
one step ahead of the herd
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