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24-05-2019, 05:47 PM
#7881
Originally Posted by winner69
I assume you noticed that if RYM result was the cause of the share price fall today it’s spooky that SUM went down by the same %age ......maintaining that relativity.
Relativity or not, the chart has SUM is right in the long term price support range (lower side) and still above the 200 MA. Has SUM ever been below the 200MA?
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24-05-2019, 05:51 PM
#7882
Originally Posted by couta1
Share prices follow sentiment being greed and fear, euphoria and melancholy.
Those are definitely additional factors not to be ignored.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-05-2019, 06:41 PM
#7883
Originally Posted by couta1
The thing is Beagle the Couta Theorum is iron clad and time proven, your hopes are not. PS - Is hope really a strategy.
I agree with Beagle on this, but don’t know when the theory will be broken
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24-05-2019, 06:47 PM
#7884
Originally Posted by Ggcc
I agree with Beagle on this, but don’t know when the theory will be broken
Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.
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24-05-2019, 06:57 PM
#7885
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Relativity or not, the chart has SUM is right in the long term price support range (lower side) and still above the 200 MA. Has SUM ever been below the 200MA?
The chart on NZX.com has sum quite a way below the 200ma ....been below it since aug/sep last year
Ps ..think NZX.com charts are wonky .....yahoo has it as you say currently just above the 200ma
And to your Dorothy Dixer share price never below 200ma (by looks of it)
Last edited by winner69; 24-05-2019 at 07:26 PM.
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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24-05-2019, 06:59 PM
#7886
Originally Posted by couta1
Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.
Nice sentimental stuff mate. No room for sentiment with this dog, (just call me a commercial hound if you must lol)...just show me where to eat my dogfood... so I will always be a numbers man and speaking of which RYM just reported 45.5 cps underlying earnings. I believe its Craigs that are forecasting $106m for SUM for FY19 which would give 47.11 cps and I have a preliminary forecast of $110m which gives 48.9 cps. If RYM grows underlying earnings just 12% again that would see them report underlying earnings of 50.96 cps in FY 20. Those underlying earnings figures in terms of eps are getting very very close
I also note that SUM are still intending through wider development throughout the regions to wind up their development book to around 600 units a year over the next few years. I think your relativity theory will be sorely tested over the next few years but like many things, only time will tell
Last edited by Beagle; 24-05-2019 at 07:02 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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24-05-2019, 08:28 PM
#7887
Since the late Feb/early Mar time, RYM's SP performance has diverged positively from SUM's SP performance. We shouldn't ignore capital gains when assessing yield, imho. RYM has also corrected out of a nasty SP downtrend (great buying opportunity missed!) albeit still well below highs, whereas SUM has continued its down trend even after a promising early 2019 resurgence with no signs at present of reversion to an uptrend (quite the opposite).
SUM is currently diverging from RYM in as much as SP performance is concerned (MET is as well, which has a long history of being shafted by RYM's performance). SUM is in trouble if one used this as their yardstick. OCA just plods on flatlining on SP performance against RYM, so I think OCA is the 'sleeper' that when it awakens, might rattle the status quo. Hence I have a few OCA and a few SUM, but nursing my investor ego as RYM continues to outperform them both in 2019.
But I think these short term views are nonsense really, trying to find some meaning from the market which is a conglomeration of chaos, all of these companies are stellar performers, great product and services, very well run businesses that are very profitable, [insert all of the market tailwinds stuff], so this penchant for comparison isn't really that helpful for investors who perhaps should diversify across all of the retirement sector and see how it goes over the long haul.
jmho
BAA
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24-05-2019, 08:51 PM
#7888
Best description of the share market I've heard Baa Baa, "A Conglomeration of Chaos" just perfect.
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24-05-2019, 09:07 PM
#7889
Originally Posted by couta1
Best description of the share market I've heard Baa Baa, "A Conglomeration of Chaos" just perfect.
Cheers mate, eloquence and insight is a delicate balance of wine and experience. Sometimes get it right.
Hope you have a fab weekend and get the Jag out for a burn, stuff the Gull, enjoy life while we can.
BAA
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25-05-2019, 09:27 AM
#7890
Originally Posted by couta1
Having just read the RYM report thoroughly I have confidence it wont happen, their innovation and what they offer their residents in both care and extras is outstanding and they deserve Top dog status.
To be fair - if you compare them with others, you would need to read the reports of the others as well, wouldn't you?
No doubt Ryman was the first (of the big retirement village providers) and they are (so far) the biggest. Question is - what do they do the others don't which makes you believe it will always stay that way?
----
"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
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