SUM - Summerset Group

[couta1]

Gee, I hope the phrase "great minds think alike" is valid, as I bought in at the open as well. Got tired of waiting at 337 yesterday, so pulled the order, but got them at 335 in the auction.

Xerof I think you'll be very happy with your move in a few weeks,will be interesting to see if the price hits or exceeds its $3.75 high after the results given the current market sentiment in general

[MAC]

I’m revisiting today Summerset's long term forecasts including build rate of course;

http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/In...h-site.sml.pdf

“The company is on track to deliver its IPO forecast of 155 retirement units in the 2012
financial year and now plans to build at least 200 retirement units in the 2013 financial year.“

“Summerset has also upgraded its longer term build rate indicating it is targeting to build 300 retirement units per annum by the 2015 financial year”.

It’s a subtle distinction, ‘in’ versus ‘by’.

I’m just interested in gauging how the market may have treated and absorbed this advice, either way a 50% increase in build rate over the next couple of years is both notable and impressive enough.

Have you interpreted this target as being ;

As delivering 300 units per annum in (during) the FY15 year, or,

As delivering 300 units per annum by (the start) of FY15 ?

[winner69]

If I had written this I would have been meaning 300 units in/during FY15

Corporate speak I use/hear/read BY usually means that year

If it is by some chance meaning FY14 (ie by FY15) you would have thought they would have said 300 in FY14 .... sounds a lot more impressive than by FY15

[MAC]

Agree, and I’ve only found one confirmation buried deep in the FY12 report;

“This strengthening of development processes along with additional banking facilities from our banking syndicate has seen us upgrade our projected build rate to 300 retirement units per annum by the end of the 2015 financial year”.

This suggests that over the next two years the growth rate for SUM is roughly going to be;

Build Growth Rate = (50/200) = 25% pa, good enough.

That’s just growth in new build of course, it's a couple of years of occupancy later that we see high re-sales and turnover.

At 4Q13 the YOY growth rate in re-sales was 64.5% reflecting a surge in turnover from the previous step increase in build rate in 2011.

I see this re-sale rate remaining at higher levels going forward reflecting the acceleration in build rate over the last couple of years

Onward and upward.

Edit: let's respectfully not forget that re-sale turnover to we investors is also respectfully our seniors moving on.

[Harvey Specter]

A 10 page brochure in the NZHearld today drumming up buyers for Hobsonville and Karaka.

[Harvey Specter]

I have to apologise - I just topped up a bit, hence why it has decided to fall even further. At this price it is a steal so where are the buyers?

[baller18]

hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...

[baller18]

hmm... should I wait.. or pounce on this opportunity...

[MAC]

It is a very peculier dip today given we are likely to see 50% plus in earnings growth in less than two weeks time, I can't help but wonder if it's a correlation thing with RYM breaking down.

A question for the TA’s;

If fundamentally RYM is likely to go flat for a while and SUM is ready for a re-rating to the upside, how to those that just buy and sell the sector correlation resolve this ?

[couta1]

It is a very peculier dip today given we are likely to see 50% plus in earnings growth in less than two weeks time, I can't help but wonder if it's a correlation thing with RYM breaking down.

A question for the TA’s;

If fundamentally RYM is likely to go flat for a while and SUM is ready for a re-rating to the upside, how to those that just buy and sell the sector correlation resolve this ?

IMHO its just a spin off from Rymans downturn as it may have run a bit ahead of itself,your see the reverse affect occurring upon Sums results,didn't think it would go to or below $3.30 though,great buying for those with spare money,see what happens tomorrow,maybe it will be Mets turn for a drop?