SUM - Summerset Group

[JayRiggs]

I hope it is great buying at these prices too. I have been buying small chunks from 3.43 down to now and prepared to buy more sub 3.20. Like couta, I am overweight on SUM. Feeling obese like a big mac
At least we haven't seen any SSH notices selling.
Steady on lads, only 11 more days to full year result. Just gotta brace for a few more waves and maybe a thunderstorm. We will see sunnier days ahead

Really like your guys ship analogy!

[couta1]

No good (and profitable) trader bides their time to get out of jail. Losses are cut short, no excuses.

If your a day trader true but what about swing and positional traders where a trade may occur over several days and up to a few months if need be for positional traders? After all its your income at the end of the year that matters not over a week

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If your a day trader true but what about swing and positional traders where a trade may occur over several days and up to a few months if need be for positional traders? After all its your income at the end of the year that matters not over a week

I stand by my statement, no matter what your time frame is if you're trading. Making a trade into a long term hold because it goes below your purchase price is plain stupid and will lose you money. You have learnt that in the past. No point tying up capital that you are losing money on. You need to to know why you are trading something and need to know at what point the trade is "broken". Once it gets to that point stop losses should exit your position for you. No emotion and no poor decisions.

[Hoop]

All buy and sells are trades so everyone is a trader...

Trying to make technicial analysis sense out of SUM is difficult...SUM plays to its own tune....Like many stocks in a constant uptrend, indicators are useless they "cry wolf" every time there's an opportunity to buy (due to dip buying fundies??)...but at some time in the future this up trend will end, as all trends do..and us TAer's will ignore the "cry wolf" sell signals and crash and burn.

.SUM is so chart unfriendly you can't even draw a long term primary uptrend line as it always breaks...So how do you know which break will be geniune in the future when all its listed life so far on the NZX is full of false signal breaks and unreliable indicators??

On closer inspection SUM seems to have a primary bull trend curve and the curve seems to be maturing.
I have used Winners idea of trend channels (I used SD(1) channels just to be different),,but the channels ultimately break down because of that maturing curve.....see chart

So a chartist life using SUM is a bitch but S&R lines sort of work as each bull market correction just breaks them ...so I accumulated more at 3.29, in the dip....and hope the dip isn't the reversal..any price below the 3.20 bull/bear line will have me worried..

[winner69]

Hoop- do you think that your "maturing curve" that SUM (and RYM is doing the same) Has is actually a sign of total market sentiment beginning to wane and maybe a signal that a market correction (or worse is imminent.

Recall that 2007/08 and to a lesser extent 2010 down periods didn't happen overnight and before the big drops there was general market weakness and many stocks had stopped going up and had started trending down before the big falls came

Maybe SUM and RYM are the bell weather stocks this time sending out that message

As moosie says history has a tendency to repeat

Interested in your thoughts Hoop

[Snow Leopard]

Hoop, firstly I would like to salute you for drawing a chart with a log price axis - everybody should be doing this.

Secondly I am appalled that you should write "Trying to make technicial analysis sense out of SUM is difficult..."
It goes up and it goes down where is the difficulty? You are just using the wrong model.

Thirdly I am even more appalled that you also wrote "..So how do you know which break will be geniune in the future ... ?"
You know as well as I do that TA does not accurately predict the future (neither does FA for that matter), it is a percentages and profit protection game.

But you know your current sell conditions for SUM surely?

If it meets them you sell don't you?

Then you are on the look out for (re)entry conditions and you continue to ply your TA rules, updating them as you learn.


Just for you here is a chart (and not like yours so full of stuff that it is difficult to see anything ).

Capture2.jpg

If the SP hits that second line up then start selling and if it hits the bottom line sell up completely. (And then watch it turn round and climb again maybe?)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[ratkin]

Reason they are not going upis because they are fully valued, some might say expensive.

Good stock , but every man and his dog are already in , it will be a case of waiting for the company to catch up to the shareprice
People expecting 25% returns year after year are being a little unrealistic. May well go through an adjusting period of underperforming the matket . You may have noticed that good news no longer moves the shareprice , its already factored in
One broker said the same recently much to the disbelief of the forum.

[couta1]

Reason they are not going upis because they are fully valued, some might say expensive.

Good stock , but every man and his dog are already in , it will be a case of waiting for the company to catch up to the shareprice
People expecting 25% returns year after year are being a little unrealistic. May well go through an adjusting period of underperforming the matket . You may have noticed that good news no longer moves the shareprice , its already factored in
One broker said the same recently much to the disbelief of the forum.

Sorry ratkin don't agree with you,I think your describing Ryman above not Sum,I believe Sum is suffering because Ryman has run ahead of itself and because it is the market leader in the sector it has dragged Sum down with it in its downtrend hence why good news is not influencing the share price much,you could see the same effect happening over at the tech stocks with Xro dragging other stocks up or down with it several times I've noticed,is Sum fully valued at $3.28,I don't think so,as for brokers valuations,yeah right pass another Tui,cheers

[couta1]

See article in Herald this morning on Sums frustrations in dealing with Auckland's Council processes

[winner69]

Sorry ratkin don't agree with you,I think your describing Ryman above not Sum,I believe Sum is suffering because Ryman has run ahead of itself and because it is the market leader in the sector it has dragged Sum down with it in its downtrend hence why good news is not influencing the share price much,you could see the same effect happening over at the tech stocks with Xro dragging other stocks up or down with it several times I've noticed,is Sum fully valued at $3.28,I don't think so,as for brokers valuations,yeah right pass another Tui,cheers

Now see what you done ratkin ..... upsetting the loyal followers

couta explained why - rym ran ahead of itself and on the pull back sum gets punished as well (unfairly by an irrational market?)

Both in the same sector. There will always be a market leader in any sector (usually the best of the bigger ones) and that is RYM in this sector. The market leader becomes the 'benchmark' price wise and the others will follow the trends of the market leader.

As such in couta's eyes Ryman will always be 'overvalued' and SUM will always be 'undervalued' - its not an irrational market thing, its just markets will give a premium to the one they see the best (from an investment point of view)

I live with that and set my expectations accordingly

But like you ratkin what the heck do I know