SUM - Summerset Group

[iceman]

Summerset in the Sun doing well
http://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/n...ith-10m-centre

[couta1]

Hey Winner on a lighter note seems yourself,PT and Hoop have all graced us with your presence here at Sum perhaps we could also invite balance and Snoopy to come on over and then we would have kinda like the African big five right here on the Sum thread

[Snow Leopard]

Roger, I will stand corrected if wrong, but I think the score is:

Ryman - yes, but requires village mgr approval. They have pet open days where local residents can interact for the day with animals.
SUM - can have a small cat or dog, must be approved by village manager
MET - can bring a small cat or dog with you, but can't replace. Requires manager approval. Needs to be apartment friendly pets.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Hoop]

Hoop- do you think that your "maturing curve" that SUM (and RYM is doing the same) Has is actually a sign of total market sentiment beginning to wane and maybe a signal that a market correction (or worse is imminent.

Recall that 2007/08 and to a lesser extent 2010 down periods didn't happen overnight and before the big drops there was general market weakness and many stocks had stopped going up and had started trending down before the big falls came


Maybe SUM and RYM are the bell weather stocks this time sending out that message

As moosie says history has a tendency to repeat

Interested in your thoughts Hoop

I read somewhere on a TA site that Bull cycle reversal is nearly unnoticeable it starts when your favourite stocks not all at once but quietly one by one slowly start to technically break down while the "rock star" stocks, the media and market commentators are still exuberant and singing the praises of a vibrant economy and a prosperous future.

Yeah ..history repeating rule of thumb is well known...eh?....Chartists, me included, follow pattern behaviour with interest...I personally have some companies I keep an eye on in a hope to pick that inevitable reversal quick enough...I personally am more vigilant now that the NZX50 Bull market cycle has matured and is 5 years old.....
I look for and try to identify both leaders and laggards with the NZX.

Its well known that Utilities lag the market and analysts recommended to hold in a bear cycle ...yes they can lag but in the end they too get severely mauled by the bear so don't hold them..don't fight the bear just get out and let the market drop...See CEN.

Other laggards I've noticed are the high profile rock stars shares...in 2007 it was RAK.....this year.. PEB XRO ???
In 2007 MHI stood out ...clothes retailers led while gold silver jewelry lagged

Leaders in 2007 were the two with property associations AIA and RYM both topping out in July and end of May respectively. 4 and 3 months before...
You would expect the retailers to be laggards, the beneficiaries at the end of the trickle down economy cycle....surprisingly PPL and HLG topped out Feb 2007 and December 2006 a good 8 to 10 months before the NZX50 multi-topped for the last time...
Actually these leaders I've mentioned haven't yet developed established bear type downtrends as I write....but they have come off the boil ...Hmmm.

Winner...if you think the Wall St 1929 comparison doing the media rounds is scary...Have a look at HLG chart...if Moosie's "history repeats" is true then HLG suggests NZX50 has recently topped out and the unnoticeable bull to bear cycle reversal has now commenced...

Disc: 90% in .. 10% cash....

[MAC]

Nice chart Hoop, thank for posting that.

Of interest is that your upper channel correlates with the Quadrant sell down period, from the anticipation right through the wane of the post transaction overhang.

It is clear that for a such a substantial sell down Summerset really held up very well during this period, continuing to grow even into such a big overhang says a lot in itself.

The fundamentals are strong, steady even accelerating growth, net margin expansion, award winning performance, best in breed, forward sites land banked at least six years ahead, and wealthy baby boomers about to enter the market and probably compete amongst themselves to get the best.

It would not surprise me one bit to see the next channel take a compensatory move to the upside.

To those who are concerned about valuation, I say DYOR. The brokers also retain higher 12 month price targets, Macquarie’s have $4.50 (+37%).

If NZ First Capital are representative of the market, we should anticipate NPAT growth of 68% at reporting in nine day’s time.

Being undervalued at present, if SUM achieve close to this or exceed it, the SP is going to fly.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11202286

[macduffy]

Still in the news!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11202494

[winner69]

I think we should all have a read over Sparkys last post on here again...

Hey moosie you seem to imply some of us think SUM is a dog.

Its not a dog, its a great company, as is RYM in the same sector.

Hoop says we are all traders (even investors) Traders trade price. My trade in SUM started 2 years ago in Jan 2012. It's been a great trade so far but as good traders I try to make as much as I can on any trade. As Mr P said 'the market giveth but the market taketh away'. I intend to keep my profits and not giveth back. At 330 the long up trend may be over, if so time to take profits. Might wait a week or so to see what happens. The signals are sell and end th trade but I am allowed some emotional attachment to this winner eh.

Price does not reflect intrinsic value. Price is driven by sentiment, how much punters are prepared to pay for those future cash flows.

My DCF valuation for SUM is slightly higher than MACs. But my experience is that my DCF valuations are usually 20% away from current price. Further more analyst targets often seem to be about 20% higher than price as well. Maybe saying that DCFs don't always reflect reality and are subject to the bias of the person doing them. On this basis SUM (and RYM) are as ratkin says 'fully priced'

History also seems to be playing out again. Good stocks showing price weakness when fundamentals are improving where a signal in 2007/2008 and other times of an impending period of overall market weakness. I have lived through this several times and it all looks familiar again. This is another reason to exercise more caution than normal, and don't let emotions rule.

If this does happen sentiment is negative and most stocks get downgraded, I lower PE ratios. Fundamentally nothing changes and unless on changes the discount rate the DCF valuation doesn't really change. In SUM case the population will continue to age, they will continue to build, and the old will still be buying their units - but the market won't pay as much as today for those cash flows.SUM shareprice possibly will have a 2 in front of it.

If this happen then we can start all over again and make heaps (maybe from as low 180 or something)

So SUM not a dog but price/value driven by sentiment an fundamentals mean next to nought see days.

Maybe SUM will recover from 330. If so th trade continues but at some future point in time that upward trend will end. The market giveth and the market taketh away.

[ratkin]

Im a holder (in at 1.40) They now firmly in the bottom draw , my time frames tend to be long , unless the fundamentals take a sudden turn for the worst i will continue to hold for many years (hopefully) .
i said earlier that the price needs a breather as its gotten ahead of itself a little . However im still optimistic for the longer term , the demographics etc are all in its favour

[MAC]

From the quarterly reports we have total new sales for the FY13 year of 228 representing an increase of +36% on FY12.

We won’t get the actual number of new units delivered until reporting is released in a few days time, however there were 102 units delivered at HY13 reporting, their goal being 200 units total for the financial year. The new unit sales figure for the year of 228 also may suggest that construction is on schedule.

It is even entirely possible that Summerset may upgrade their outlook for FY14.

I wouldn't be surprised if they raise their build target from 200 units per year to 250 units per year for FY14, let’s wait and see.

Attachment 5488

[winner69]

Im a holder (in at 1.40) They now firmly in the bottom draw , my time frames tend to be long , unless the fundamentals take a sudden turn for the worst i will continue to hold for many years (hopefully) .
i said earlier that the price needs a breather as its gotten ahead of itself a little . However im still optimistic for the longer term , the demographics etc are all in its favour

Price gotten ahead of itself

Cant talk for SUM but no doubt similar to RYM where over the last 2 years about 80% of the increase in their price has come from multiples expansion (market sentiment). The balance being company performance (increased profits and/or increases I. Net assets)

Multiples of underlying profit / reported NPAT / book value have more than doubled over the last 2 years.

RYM and SUM will continue to perform well with earnings etc all up 20% or so a year. But it is those high multiples that are likely to contract - that's the bit that Mr P always said 'the market taketh away'

Doesn't happen overnight - just a slow grind down. I think that process is underway at the moment.

Keeping a close eye hoping that market sentiment gets a little more positive then it has been lately

That's my current view but then what the heck do I know