SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Just we coming at from different perspectives moosie

I been in for 2 years and in both RYM and SUM trailing stop losses are being tested. So what do I do ensure I keep most of the profits so far?

You not in but looking to get in so you have different triggers. No doubt it will work out for you

Interesting eh

[winner69]

I reckon Underlying Profit for FY13 will be $23.1 million up 51% on pcp

[Beagle]

I'm thinking 50-55% growth range in underlying profit for 2013.
68% growth as suggested earlier in this thread would be a positive surprise as far as I'm concerned.

[MAC]

I'm inclined to agree Roger, NZ First seem to be at the top end of the range and with SUM being undervalued as it is, just meeting expectations should see a nice step up. It's looking increasing like a nice entry point actually, lot's of solid growth ahead building off a base of good performance.

Attachment 5489

[cyclist]

I reckon Underlying Profit for FY13 will be $23.1 million up 51% on pcp

That still gives a P/E based on underlying profit of over 30. (I am using the 216m shares listed on the NZX site). So still another year and a half or so of stellar growth needed before someone buying today would see a P/E well under 20 based on purchase price. Is that realistic or normal?

[MAC]

Cyclist, PE is a metric that is often used for roughly gauging the relative value of cyclical stocks FBU, TEL, MRP etc. Value investors use PE as a quick screening tool to see if cyclical’s are under or over valued relative to the market as a precursor to performing more in-depth analysis and modelling.

Growth stocks like SUM have higher PE’s because investor’s value forward discounted cashflows, and those cashflows are increasing over time. As a rule the higher the earnings growth, the higher the PE will be for a growth stock.

If SUM report 51% earnings growth in a week or so, a PE in the 30’s will be entirely acceptable.

Do have a go at some DCF you may be pleasantly surprised, trust this assists.

[Bjauck]

There is an interesting item on stuff this morning http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/mone...ping-dividends . Of particular interest was the assertion "Labour's capital gains tax policy was expected to impact on property and aged care stocks" .

I have what is a very basic question and this will display my ignorance! SUM and all other property and retirement village companies would face a capital gains tax liability if a village/building were sold. Currently they are already taxed when a licence to occupy a unit (less costs) is sold for a gian.

However other companies would also have to pay capital gains tax if a part of their business or a subsidiary were sold for a gain. As it seems unlikely that SUM would sell part of a village at the moment...a CGT would not have much of an effect. Would a CGT actually have a greater impact on SUM and the other listed retirement villages compared with other NZX listed companies? Would the retirement companies actually face the same % increase in tax as the listed property trusts?

[fiasco]

For those who haven't got access

GENERAL: SUM: Summerset Invests NZ$500M in Auckland Developments

SUM
17/02/2014 08:49
GENERAL

REL: 0849 HRS Summerset Group
Holdings Limited

GENERAL: SUM: Summerset Invests NZ$500M in Auckland Developments

NZX, ASX AND MEDIA RELEASE

17 February
2014

SUMMERSET INVESTS NZ$500 MILLION IN AUCKLAND
DEVELOPMENTS

Retirement village operator Summerset will have spent NZ$500
million on
developments in Auckland by the time it completes its three latest
villages
in the city. The figure was revealed on Saturday at the launch of
the
company's Hobsonville village, where the public got their first chance to
see
what the NZ$120 million waterfront development will look like.

MP
Paula Bennett attended the event and welcomed the new development.

"This
development is a fantastic addition for the community, and will provide
great support for our older people, who'll have access to accommodation built
specifically for their needs," Mrs Bennett said.

Summerset CEO
Norah Barlow said the affordability and availability of housing
in Auckland
is something both the Government and Council are working to
address. "We
support both Council and Government's policies such as the
Housing Accord,
which will encourage development to help address the shortage
of housing in
Auckland.

"In our five Auckland villages we will spend a total of NZ$500
million, and
create homes for some 1300 people. We've built a village at
Manukau, and are
close to completing our Warkworth village. Now we're
commencing work on our
Karaka village and look forward to construction
starting on our Hobsonville
village. We are working with Council and looking
to finalise resource consent
to commence our Ellerslie village as soon as
possible."

Summerset's Auckland villages will free up existing homes for
younger
families. This will assist Auckland Council's stated goals of
providing a
range of housing options and increasing
affordability.

Plans for the 7.6 hectare Hobsonville village include
approximately 225 homes
comprising villas, apartments, and care apartments,
and a 90-bed care centre
providing rest home and hospital-level care. The
site has 180-degree views of
Waitemata Harbour out to Herald Island. The
village will be named Summerset
at Monterey Park after the tourist theme park
that previously occupied the
site.

Summerset CEO-designate Julian Cook
said, "This village is going to be an
asset for the community and for wider
Auckland. We look forward to
contributing to the growth of Hobsonville which
is on its way to becoming a
vibrant part of the city, and to the city as a
whole as our developments
progress.

"In our experience, many of the
people moving into retirement villages are
down-sizing from three and four
bedroom family homes. This frees up homes in
the community for younger
families.

"Our villages also support the ageing population, who require
safe, secure
housing that is designed for their needs. Demand for our
villages across the
city shows there's a real need for this kind of
housing."

[MAC]

“In our five Auckland villages we will spend a total of NZ$500 million, and create homes for some 1300 people.

That provides for roughly 1,300 units in Auckland which is considerable considering the total units constructed to date by is 1,748.

Summerset have done well with that strategy, taking on the local councils in Auckland in pursuing big build, and doing it effectively in the lucrative Auckland area where demand and pricing pressure is higher. This is something that RYM and MET have not achieved as well or effectively.

The recent land banking of the two big sites in Christchurch I think will pay off well in a similar way, there’s a few years of property development, economic growth and demand there also.

Onward, upward and higher.

[Beagle]

“In our five Auckland villages we will spend a total of NZ$500 million, and create homes for some 1300 people.

That provides for roughly 1,300 units in Auckland which is considerable considering the total units constructed to date by is 1,748.

Summerset have done well with that strategy, taking on the local councils in Auckland in pursuing big build, and doing it effectively in the lucrative Auckland area where demand and pricing pressure is higher. This is something that RYM and MET have not achieved as well or effectively.

The recent land banking of the two big sites in Christchurch I think will pay off well in a similar way, there’s a few years of property development, economic growth and demand there also.

Onward, upward and higher.

I agree 100% Mac. Ryman for the relative size of the company with a market cap of circa 5 times that of SUM have executed in quantum very poorly in the lucrative high demand Auckland area. The facilities they do have are very good, but in number are woefully inadequate in my opinion. SUM's approach in the Auckland market is one of the key reasons i've been favouring them over Ryman for some time now, with the other main reason being the much higher growth rate of SUM and its generally better geographical spread of villages. (People seem to have forgotten that RYM have a high percentage of their villages in Christchurch and none of us can forget how earthquake prone that area is).

On another topic its nice too see Mr Cook taking a more public approach towards making comments aimed at Auckland City Council's lathargic consent approval process. This augers well for the future and I believe he brings fresh energy to the CEO role.