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28-02-2014, 04:40 AM
#1211
Originally Posted by fiasco
Strange indeed, oh well I think I need to just continue to not look at it and come back next year haha.
Yep, a watched pot never boils. The internet has made it far to easy to monitor every little movement in price, every little hiccup, rumour and ramp. It's little wonder many fail to invest long enough to make really good returns
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28-02-2014, 05:06 AM
#1212
Thanks Ratkin : My thoughts exactly .I wonder how many on sharetrader let fear & greed tear themselves apart on a daily/hourly basis !If they where honest with themselves and equated in their time they spend looking at every bit of information they would have a piss poor quality of life and piss poor return IMHO
Originally Posted by ratkin
Yep, a watched pot never boils. The internet has made it far to easy to monitor every little movement in price, every little hiccup, rumour and ramp. It's little wonder many fail to invest long enough to make really good returns
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28-02-2014, 08:29 AM
#1213
Member
Agree, as Roger's analogies go, I shall go fishing while sailing around the sea!
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28-02-2014, 08:51 AM
#1214
Just like Taleb's fictional dentist in Fooled by Randomness suffers - (extract)
This hypothetical investor is guaranteed to earn 15% per annum from his portfolio with an associated volatility of 10%. These statistics are not open to dispute.
But if our investor friend monitors his portfolio in real time, however, the random price oscillations of his portfolio are likely to trigger extreme anxiety. Depending on the frequency with which he observes his portfolio, our dentist will experience varying degrees of heartache and distress. The frequency of portfolio observation versus probability of a pleasurable shown below:
1 second 50.02%
1 minute 50.17%
1 hour 51.30%
1 day 54%
1 month 67%
1 quarter 77%
1 year 93%
(Source: „Fooled by Randomness‟, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
The message is clear. Too much observation can be bad for you. If Taleb‟s dentist simply restricts the frequency with which he checks his portfolio – a fundamentally sound portfolio – he will boost his chances of incurring a positive emotional outcome from his monitoring. Note that nothing changes about the composition of his portfolio – only the frequency with which he checks it. Investors determined to watch the pot may end up being scalded
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28-02-2014, 10:10 AM
#1215
I agree with the sentiments expressed above regarding volatility and time. Investment returns in a solid steady growth company like this will be a function of capital invested and time in the market.
Not sure how many of you have had a good look through the full results presentation that was attached to the full year announcement on the stock exchange website so I have posted a link here for your convienience. You can learn a lot about the company by studing this presentation in great detail.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/189890.pdf
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28-02-2014, 10:12 AM
#1216
Well constructed post there.(winner) Have to confess I check mine multiple times a day even though it's very rare to take any action.
Would rather fill my empty computer moments with sharetrader than looking at pictures of funny cats on Facebook
Last edited by ratkin; 28-02-2014 at 10:13 AM.
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28-02-2014, 10:17 AM
#1217
I also agree.
But,
it would be easier if we were in a slightly different part of the cycle. I think most peoples nerves are up anyway, coz we know at some point in the not too distant future things are going to dramatically change, and we're all trying to protect our capital...
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28-02-2014, 10:30 AM
#1218
Just taken Rogers advice and actually bothered to look at the result.
I wonder if they will be so keen to include one off losses in future results, as they were to include the 8m brownfield gain in this one.
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28-02-2014, 10:33 AM
#1219
Originally Posted by ratkin
Just taken Rogers advice and actually bothered to look at the result.
I wonder if they will be so keen to include one off losses in future results, as they were to include the 8m brownfield gain in this one.
Auditors will require it.
Most look at underlying earnings anyway, which strips out unrealised valuations fluctuations.
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28-02-2014, 10:43 AM
#1220
EVer since Ryman and summerset have been around, property and land prices have pretty much risen every year (correct me if I'm wrong)
should that situation change then results are going to look very different.
Question. What proportion of these companies success is a result of
A) Increasing numbers of oldies
B) years of rising property prices
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