SUM - Summerset Group

[ratkin]

Good to see this peoples expectations coming down to a more realistic level. Has been ridiculously over optimistic on here this past six months.

[Goldstein]

You can see where any vacancies are here:
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Cate...ch_suggested=0

Looks like only 3 of the 19 villages have anything 'Available Now'.

Anyway, I'm sure some of those going to the AGM can ask a few questions

[Beagle]

Roger, you need to put the PE in context of earnings growth to get the full picture. e.g. while SUM might be trading at a PE of 33, its underlying growth grew at 46% over the last FY year. Hence its PEG ratio is 33/46 = 0.72. This suggests excellent value. Few growth stocks have a PEG ratio less than one.

Also, by comparison, the PEG for Ryman is nearly 2, which is precisely why SUM is a much better investment (even at $3.58) than RYM (IMHO etc blah blah blah)

Yeap, well on to that my friend but to be honest I am very disappointed with Q1 sales and expected a LOT more as articulated recently. I agree that using historical growth rates the PEG is very cheap and also note that despite a flat Q1 2013 sales result compared to the pcp in 2012 they still managed profit growth of 46% last year.
I agree that these are substaintially better value than Ryman's and won't own any Ryman for that reason notwithstanding my desire to have a well diversified portfolio. I won't pay over the odds for any stock.
Plenty to discuss with management at the AGM if they have the time.

[couta1]

Deep breath guys,so Q1 sales not what expected ,my post #1770 applies here I believe, remember what Norah said to the media last year need I remind you ,This is a Long Term Investment,a marathon not a sprint. Winner I never said things were booming but all the ducks are lined up with processes brought in house, some fantastic building sites eg (Honestly the Boulcott site in Lower Hutt will be the most desirable site in Wellington,that's going to sell like hot cakes once started) and many awards for their overall performance and care standards. I'm going to have a talk to Julian Cook when I can get hold of him and will report back to you all after that,cheers couta

[winner69]

The man from First Capital was on radio earlier and said sales numbers were lower than their expectations

Maybe they will change their target or whatever analysts do.
N

[percy]

I would be congratulating Norah and the team for running a fantastic business in such a growth sector.
Winning the retirement village awards year after year shows they are the best.
I would also congratulate Norah for joining INA's board.Simon Owen of INA is a brilliant CEO and Norah will bring her skills with her.
I would congratulate management for selecting great sites/locations for the villages.
I would congratulate them on design and the building of quality residences.
I would tell them I am very proud to be a shareholder in such a fine company.
I may even say I think we are very well positioned!!

[winner69]

Something just don't stack up

Over the last 4 quarters (to 1Q14) they have sold 212 new units .... only 19 more than they sold in the same 4 quarters prior year (to 1Q13)

Rhetoric and the numbers just seem to stack up ...... momentum is slowing for some reason

[Goldstein]

Something just don't stack up

Over the last 4 quarters (to 1Q14) they have sold 212 new units .... only 19 more than they sold in the same 4 quarters prior year (to 1Q13)

Rhetoric and the numbers just seem to stack up ...... momentum is slowing for some reason

I really wonder whether it has to do with bringing the build in-house. Maybe there are some teething problems, with completions being pushed out.

[winner69]

I really wonder whether it has to do with bringing the build in-house. Maybe there are some teething problems, with completions being pushed out.

A good question to ask at the ASM

[Xerof]

Winner, I think it's just timing - e.g. in 2013 they built 209, sold 228. So they have sold more than they built, implying quite a long lead-in-time from construction to realising a sale.

They expect to deliver 250 newly constructed units this year. To me that should mean they will again sell more than that over the full period, given the lag from still having some unsold from last years build. Thats the momentum you are looking for. Then 2015, they want to build 300, and so forth

Q1 is a little flat - no big deal IMO. Plenty of time to bed in the baby boomers

the resale momentum is good though eh? (Q1 v Q1) That should be a no-brainer, given they are building a larger pool to turnover