SUM - Summerset Group

[percy]

You guys all gone to a funeral or something, not much in the way of comment lately about how good sales are going to be and all that stuff

Chin up guys. The market just a bit irrational at the moment

Some say a good time to buy when like this

But the again the market may actually be acting rationally and this is a just a valuation rerating

Whatever one thing or sure Summerset will make heaps of dosh this year

Well I suppose I am doing it all wrong,by not selling out and waiting for the new uptrend.
However my shares in SUM average, after selling down approx. 35cents per share while I am having a free ride with RYM.
I prefer RYM and SUM to others in the sector.I would be more than happy to retire in either company's villages,which I think is the real test.
With over 1,000,000 people over the age of 65 in just a few years I feel that huge tail wind will mean both RYM and SUM will prosper.
.

[BlackPeter]

You guys all gone to a funeral or something, not much in the way of comment lately about how good sales are going to be and all that stuff

Chin up guys. The market just a bit irrational at the moment

Some say a good time to buy when like this

But the again the market may actually be acting rationally and this is a just a valuation rerating

Whatever one thing or sure Summerset will make heaps of dosh this year

Well - not much news lately (other than that the sector gets more crowded). However just looking into my magic spreadsheet: SUM has currently a much better P/E (15.1) than other companies working in this industry like MET (19.5), INA (32.3), RYM (27.7). This means that unless there is something we can't see yet in the bushes, SUM should have better growing potential from here than the rest.

Obviously - I don't like the recent dip either (discl: holding), but not too worried.

As always - DYOR;

[winner69]

Well - not much news lately (other than that the sector gets more crowded). However just looking into my magic spreadsheet: SUM has currently a much better P/E (15.1) than other companies working in this industry like MET (19.5), INA (32.3), RYM (27.7). This means that unless there is something we can't see yet in the bushes, SUM should have better growing potential from here than the rest.

Obviously - I don't like the recent dip either (discl: holding), but not too worried.

As always - DYOR;

ANZ has SUM p/e at 18.9 and RYM at 20.5 not much in it

[Beagle]

ANZ has SUM p/e at 18.9 and RYM at 20.5 not much in it

Both figures are wrong as they're working on reported EPS not underlying EPS. SUM's PE is 29 based on a SP of $2.99.

[winner69]

What is RYM's PE using underlying, roger?

On an apples for apples basis (last reported underlying profit) RYM p/e is 33.9

[BlackPeter]

ANZ has SUM p/e at 18.9 and RYM at 20.5 not much in it

O.K. - I should have noted how I get to the P/E's I used - it is one of these situations, where everybody seems to use different numbers (and some of them make even sense in context).

I use typically 2 numbers: "predicted P/E" (which is what I quoted in the post) and that's typically the earning prediction either from company announcement, Reuters or from ft.com (in this order, and normally not older than 7 days or so, when I use it) divided by the actual share price.

I use as well "average P/E" - that's the average (diluted) earnings over the last 5 years divided by current share price.

Banks and finance websites use all sort of numbers - predicted P/E, last years P/E, P/E based on real earnings or on underlying earnings and sometimes they seem to pick just a random number. It is as well not unusual that the same company uses different numbers in parallel (look e.g. at ANZsecurities - the Reuters tab shows often a different P/E than the detailled tab, so I try to keep my numbers comparable, but leave it up to everybody else what you want to use ...

So I re-state: in MY books it looks like SUM has a P/E advantage ...

[Beagle]

IMHO, underlying earnings is the only really useful measure of profitability for companies like this.

Agree 100% and I think RYM have earned a slightly higher PE but both are over-rated IMHO considering the modest EPS growth I'm expecting (10-15)% for the current year.
I've given up trying to pick the extent of the correction...I'll simply wait until there's a confirmed 3 day break back above the 100 day MA going back up...whenever that might be... but it won't surprise me at all if this is a very long time coming. FWIW my preferred re-entry company into this sector is RYM.

[Mista_Trix]

...I'll simply wait until there's a confirmed 3 day break back above the 100 day MA going back up...whenever that might be....

Is this methodology for picking the correction what others use? I'd be interested to hear thoughts, I'm okay at getting out (sometimes - when I stop listening to myself too much), but have few skills about when to get back in again...

I'd appreciate any thoughts around this..?

[Onion]

See the thread by KW etc about using TA to time entries/exits. Very detailed and interesting discussion.

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...ries-and-exits

[Mista_Trix]

See the thread by KW etc about using TA to time entries/exits. Very detailed and interesting discussion.

Cheers all, had a look through that like a year ago, took in a minimal amount (based on where I was at the time) - had completely forgotten it existed - time for a re-read of the thread I think