SUM - Summerset Group

[MAC]

If you may indulge in a predictive challenge Hoop,

My FA provides me with at forecast of $2.63 at FY14, in clarification that would be the closing share price at reporting day’s end, probably 25th February 2015, noting that the SP may swing higher or lower between now and then.

What better chance to show us how good any of that TA really is ?


Declaration: Sold SUM from my long term growth portfolio back in May after a two year hold, presently hold SUM within our long term defensive income portfolio, all bottles of wine welcome.

[Harvey Specter]

presently hold SUM within our long term defensive income portfolio, all bottles of wine welcome.

Retirement villages aren't exactly income stocks are they - yield is less than 2%??

[MAC]

Retirement villages aren't exactly income stocks are they - yield is less than 2%??

Yeah Harvey your right, they’re just at the beginning of transforming from a growth to a cyclical dividend stock.

By long term I mean that we are content to hold the demographic until the boomers flush through the system, or a capital gains tax comes along, or some other such event.

There’s twenty years for cash from the wealthiest generation in human history yet to be recycled, whether it comes in share price or dividends, or a combination along the way, I’m content to receive some of it over the long term.

[Hoop]

If you may indulge in a predictive challenge Hoop,...No!!! you may not..My abilities as a Seer suck..sorry

My FA provides me with at forecast of $2.63 at FY14, in clarification that would be the closing share price at reporting day’s end, probably 25th February 2015, noting that the SP may swing higher or lower between now and then. I see..FA predicting the future ..I wish you good luck..As for TA, I've always said many times over and over again on ST TA does not predict the future..TA uses past and up the present data..Using TA to tell us what happens next week is impossible because that future data is not available yet.....Why is it that FAers keep harping on about TA predicting the future???

What better chance to show us how good any of that TA really is ?..You are not fully concentrating when reading ST posts, I've already showed how good it is ..Go back and read my chart posts on AIR SUM and PEB...I have made it a point this year to show IN and OUT on these charts..IN is my real life buy in and OUT is my real life sell out...every time I buy back in I use my sold out money (or more) to repurchase so often my number of shares compound as well as the price increase so TA is beating the shareprice increase..The most extremely successful example using this same TA methodology which I partly did in reality towards the end was theoretically making +89% profit from MFT when it had declined ~60% over the same time period (Post #285 shows how it was done) during the bear market crash of 2007 -2009


Declaration: Sold SUM from my long term growth portfolio back in May after a two year hold, presently hold SUM within our long term defensive income portfolio, all bottles of wine welcome.

Addition:
Anyone can use forecasting data...economists weatherpersons FAers TAers..there are forecasting models out there using past trends and behaviour patterns (e.g weather system patterns) and using historic data to find repeating behaviour in correlating series of each individual or more complex events...Modern technology has given us the ease to correlate all sorts of data to find repeating patterns or to calculate the odds of repeating patterns..Weather forecasting computer modelling has I think has benefited the most out of this technological revolution ..weather forecasting has become much more accurate in recent years...especially the last year or so...

FA and TA also enjoy the benefits of modern day computer models..every day we see new models and the easy automated updating of day by day data (hyperlinking) helps all disciplines to "keep their finger on the pulse" on any of the world"s systems (incl equity markets)...
I currently individually use a few other peoples models and have developed a couple on my own based mostly on hyperlinked Google data models operatoring off my Google Drive which is always running on my computer..My Alerts are instant in Time...These are a mixture of FA and TA discipline models

An interesting desktop app I have is... when I turn my computer on in the morning..if the desktop displays are red it means Wall St has had (having) a bad day or green for a good day

The data received and computerised is up to the nanosecond present time...

When using FA forecasting this instant time is not a luxury FAers have..Change in profits or sales takes time to analyse and the people in the know are the first to gain this info..Us shareholder plebs are usually well down the information food chain and either become aware of it via media release or shareprice change..So most are using snapshot data results which are months out of date

TA is a little better discipline with receiving data info...there are specific indicators which monitor all sorts of things that goes on within a marketplace...Any deviation in a day to day share behaviour can be picked up before the masses are informed (the info delay could be minutes or days)....MAC.. TA's ability to fire off signals as in these example mentioned is not a future prediction event, it is up to date behavioural info received from an happening not yet released or disclosed to the shareholders or general public....or the market is spooked by an yet to happen event and has corrected to show that increased variable risk of the event happening.

TA is based on Human (Animal) group behaviour. TA can display on a chart the greed and fears of that trading group through price corrections affected by perceived level of risk... Animal behaviour can be predictive such as the (dangerous) noise of a hunter firing a gun or a similar (no danger) noise...both similar noises fire off the same intinctive behavioural response signals (fear)..Experienced Stock market TAers respond to these fear signals as sell signals...It might matter to a FAer but to an TAer it does not matter if the event(s) are real or imaginary... if the market experiences fear that is real enough to a TAer!! and TAer's respond accordingly..

Its a swing and roundabouts thing with FA v TA..FA not responding to possible danger may win out but waiting to find out creates risk..then FA conflict may cause denial which creates more risk and delay...TA responds quickly so risk is low they may miss a little gain or whipsawed (treated as insurance policy fee) but once group behaviour realises and fear turns to greed, the signal to buy returns quickly at a lower risk..FA doesn't factor in market risk unless using specific tools such as the likes of Z Altman scores etc

[skid]

I think Hoops post is demonstrating that TA ,while not predicting the future ,can help predict the future (actually future behavior)(better than just FA)

I think DIL and PEB are an example of how costly it can be to be Stubbornly FA

[Hoop]

Stupid question: but what use is TA if it can't help predict the future? In other words, how else would anybody want to use it? Nobody wants to predict the past...

FA can't predict the future either.... so if you imply your same argument of TA to FA... you would be asking this question too... why use FA?

Nobody wants to predict the past..I do...Trends relies on the past,,also.. Past behaviour has a habit of cycling.. greed follows fear which follows greed

[MAC]

Crumbs Hoop, haven’t had a nice four page reply from you for ages.

Come on though, one must still have some basis for investing ones hard earned savings, it’s not a lottery after all, things can change for FA’s between now and February also, interest rates, company goals, build rate, unions, wage pressures, property valuation methods, construction schedules, all manner of things, yet one still must have a basis to invest and to develop a base case, important for sensitivity work too.

The best one can do is to assess the rewards with FA models and determine a base case from an assessment of risk likelihoods and mitigations.

For profitable growth stocks like SUM I use a long run DCF model of course, but get greater short run (six months) accuracy with a generic anchored PEG/PER model.

If what you are telling me though is that you trade within timeframes which are less than reporting periods than that’s all fine, you don’t have to play.

You may like to though consider stating that in your posts.

Some TA’s very often give newbies a scare at times because newbies are often not yet confident enough to fully appreciate that very short term negative charting predictions are not typically representative of the long term underlying fundamentals of a company.

Over the long term the share price goes from point to point as fundamental valuations change up or down, in the short term, well the share price wobbles about as you say depending on human behaviours and sheep trails.

[skid]

FA sounds like a good way to identify potentially good stocks--TA sounds like a good way to keep track of them.(or peoples behavior towards them)

[winner69]

Who says FA can't help predict the future? An intimate understanding of a company's current operations and future aspirations provide very useful insights to likely future performance.

Yes, no argument

But what do investors/traders/punters want to pay for that company performance at any point in time is the question?

[skid]

And there are plenty of outside events that can throw a spanner into that mix