SUM - Summerset Group

[couta1]

couta were you not hoping for 125 combined sales.......... lets hope the market was not expecting this.
Easy to get hung up in the numbers....... I like SUM for their land bank.

Yep and with reasonable resales we would have achieved that but we can't control the dying season and that could change dramatically during Q4 and if the new sales keep coming we are well positioned IMHO

[James108]

^There is only 5 less resale units available than there were a quarter a go. Lets be generous and assume 10 less people died than normal and there were 10 less sales than normal. That is still a long way off the 125 combined sales.

[couta1]

^There is only 5 less resale units than there were a quarter a go. Lets be generous and assume 10 less people died than normal and there were 10 less sales than normal. That is still a long way off the 125 combined sales.

No there was 15 less resales this quarter 31 compared to 46 last quarter so still short of 125 but getting close.

[James108]

I ment there were 5 less resale units available for purchase than there were in the previous quarter. I propose sales of resale units is not entirely driven by (lack of) supply and is subject to overall demand for units.

[couta1]

I ment there were 5 less resale units available for purchase than there were in the previous quarter. I propose sales of resale units is not entirely driven by (lack of) supply and is subject to overall demand for units.

Okay, but on the second point there is a waiting list so lack of supply is the problem not demand.

[Beagle]

Just sent this to the communications person. Will let you know if/when I get a response. (note the six kisses - worked a charm with PEB!)

Hi Kimberley

I am a fairly significant shareholder in your company, and am slightly concerned with the occupation metrics released today. In particular, I am surprised at the very low number of resales. Can you please provide more information on this? The media release cites a lack of supply (of units for resale), which is difficult to understand given that the village portfolio continues to grow each year.

Is the issue related to an increase in average tenure? In other words, are the slow resales a reflection of people living longer and hence staying in the village for longer than they used to in the past?

I would sincerely appreciate a response at your earliest convenience.

Many thanks
xxxxxx

LOL LOL If you're lucky you'll get a load of public relations bull**** back in a few days time and a few months later you can look forward to them making up new excuses about how the profit on resales per unit was lower because as they claimed in the six month financials people are staying in their units for shorter periods. If she's pretty and single and you are too, why not ask for a date, that way you have a remote chance of getting something that's actually worth something.

[couta1]

NG another thing to consider re resales is that most people only want to purchase a unit in the area they live and as most of the villages are not building new units supply can only come from existing stock and if they have a waiting list well I think you get the picture so the village portfolio expanding doesn't always mean supply will meet or outstrip demand.

[Beagle]

In the six months to 30 June financials they claimed profits on resales were down because on average people were staying in their units for a shorter period. Now after a cold winter, (which we all know is the hardest on aged folks), suddenly they're staying in their units longer. Makes their previous excuse look weak.

Also, all the talk of very strong sales at Karaka and Hobsonville haven't actually come to all that much have they !!

I am now forecasting a profit of 10% down on last year, (yes that's right a profit decrease). I am very underwhelmed by the current quarters sales, ditto the previous two quarters.

[James108]

I looked into Hobnsonville and I believe stage 1 (the stage that is finished) was only in the order of 10 units.

[MAC]

Re-sales have been relatively flat for two or three years, just means at some point in the future, perhaps a few years away, respectfully remembering what re-sales means, we may see a flurry.

At the end of the day SUM growth comes from new construction and the re-valuation of assets. IMO long term it’s a demographic hold, short term it’s an asset valuation watch for those that do.

Attachment 6303

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU141...-months-qv.htm