SUM - Summerset Group

[couta1]

Put it another way. If some DO enter at 65 (or even 70), how old must the others be on entry for the AVERAGE TO BE 78?

NG the main point I was making here is that Met are way out of step with the other two and will need to make a change when their care centers start getting bigger or they will run into trouble.

[Beagle]

NG its not theoretical as quite a few enter at the minimum age, eg I know a couple who recently entered a Sum village at 65 having waited for the husbands 65th birthday to arrive, they were on a waiting list. Quite a few on waiting lists were upset when Ryman put the age up to 70 from 65 and special arrangements were made to accommodate them at the time but the majority as you say would not enter at the minimum age.

My Mum knows a few at her retirement village, (The Peninsula Club on Whangaparaoa in Auckland) who have been there for over 25 years having moved in at 55. You wouldn't want too many of them on board at SUM villages to muck up the stock turn would you !! I think rapid advances in medication is a real headwind for this sector and we will see significant advances in the average life expectancy of our elderly folks over the foreseeable future. As usual RYM are ahead of the game and have done the business savvy thing of putting up the entry age and SUM are left fumbling in the dark wondering why stock turn is on the decline, dragging their heels. Warren Buffett is I concede absolutely right. Best of breed only. If you've made it to 65 I think the current stat's show the average life expectancy for women is for them to reach 85 and men about 82 but as rapid advances in drugs and new medical technology happen, maybe by the time they're 75 their average life expectancy will have shifted to nearly 90 ?

[winner69]

Oh NG - what an insult suggesting you compare your work with some of the research from investment banks that cover SUM

That's just another way of calling you stupid or something .....and don't bother us again please

What a hoot!!!!

[Beagle]

Here's the very weak response given at 8pm tonight to my latest query:

Hi xxxxxx,

Summerset currently has quite a mix of mature villages and developing villages, as well as a mix of different unit types (villas, apartment, care apartments). You will find on p32 of our Information Memorandum from July 2013 the average tenures by retirement unit type for mature villages at that particular time (http://www.summerset.co.nz/assets/In...randum.sml.pdf). As mentioned in my earlier email, some volatility is to be expected with units becoming available for resale given their nature.

In terms of your modelling of terminations, I can only suggest you may like to compare this with some of the research from investment banks that cover our stock.

Good luck with your analysis.

Kind regards,

I told you you'd only get a load of PR claptrap out of them.

[Beagle]

Let me give you some good advice mate. You're wasting your time. If management and the board allegedly couldn't work out that Norha's sale was a breech of the insider trading regulations between them before it happened then its safe to say they'd have not a single clue between them of any reason why their stock turn has diminished...which if you think about it is exactly what they are telling you, pointing to historical outcomes and then suggesting you go away and talk to analysts. They have no clues.

[couta1]

Roger your onto it re the age issue and Ryman were savvy enough years ago to recognize this just like they were by building dementia units in every village, Met have yet to face certain issues at this point due to their tiny care centres but I'm sure they will make changes to stay competitive when the time comes, obviously I like the potential of Sum but as you know I wasn't impressed with the arrogance of the board at the AGM nor their resistance to include dementia units in their upcoming builds but I'm going to keep pressing them on that issue because its too important to let rest

[couta1]

Yep, fair point mate. To be honest, I feel like I'm just finding out that a long term partner has cheated on me. I was in this for the LONG haul. Now, I just wanna get out (but will have to wait for things to turn a bit before I do!!!)

Remember NG its takes 2 years to get a divorce

[Beagle]

Trust me I know the feeling mate. What worries me about this stock and its management is what you can't see. What I see worries me and if you can see issues where management could do better I always wonder if that's just the tip of the iceberg. OTOH Ryman run a slick operation so you've got to ask why bother with the immatators don't you ? When the PE on RYM is more reasonable and the TA looks good and there's a new clear uptrend emerging, (whenever than might be and it could be a long way away), like good old Arnold Swatzanagger "I'LL BE BACK"

[couta1]

Roger I'm going to have to gift a share to you off market just so you can come to the AGM next year

[Beagle]

Or better still, I'll just come down this summer and get on the piss with you and have a drive of that classic Jag of yours, (actually we'd better do those two things in the opposite order LOL).