SUM - Summerset Group

[Chaowee88]

I initially considered buying a bit of SUM at 280 but with the charts looking so bad I'm finding the entry point difficult despite the fundamentals looking more attractive by the day

[Tevita]

I initially considered buying a bit of SUM at 280 but with the charts looking so bad I'm finding the entry point difficult despite the fundamentals looking more attractive by the day

The most fundamental of fundamentals that I see are people bailing out all around. The Board as though with blinkers on apparently as sang froid about the sight as those who bailed out before the queue even started forming. Or those rewarded by sinecure appointments and assured remuneration therefrom.

Perhaps my read is wrong.

[QOH]

I had a sell order on Friday that wasn't hit, pulled it over the weekend.Should have kept it in but as they say hindsight is 20/20.

[Tevita]

Sorry, but I have no idea what you are saying.

You will be in select company. Nor will the Board.

[skid]

Great. We're finally saying the same thing.

To anybody who thinks this is a waste of time or point proving I'll outline why it is important.

What we are seeing with the downturn in SUM's share price may be completely to do with fluctuations in death rates around an average, and how this plays out across SUM's portfolio. This being the case we could well see a veritable tsunami of re-sales next year. So if nothing fundamental has changed SUM may represent an outstanding buy opportunity over the next 3-4 months, with a natural variation having had an enormous impact on current share price (low-flu year, etc).

The other side of the coin is that something has changed. Perhaps all of SUM's construction people are tied up with the new build and little resource is left for the renovations required prior to re-sale. Perhaps the profiles of some of the more recently built facilities are targeting younger folk.

This exercise becomes much easier as a company matures and makes more of their historical data available (I've written to SUM and requested data going back further than the 5 years or so we have at the moment).

NewGuy, if you can come up with something useful (I had to make very gross assumptions), you will be very well placed to use your statistical model on the new companies entering the sector for which there won't be any historical data available. So IMHO, it would be time well spent. If you can get your employer to pay for the time you spend doing it, even better.

So let me get this straight--Your saying that the success of SUM is dependent on its customers dieing at a faster rate so they can flip the unit to the next oldie?

I think Ive got material for my first novel

[Buffett Jr]

Blood in the streets.

I'm loading up big time today.

[Goldstein]

So let me get this straight--Your saying that the success of SUM is dependent on its customers dieing at a faster rate so they can flip the unit to the next oldie?

I think Ive got material for my first novel

Let's just say their whole business plan is built around an average tenure rate for their different assets.

[macduffy]

Blood in the streets.

I'm loading up big time today.

Yes, but the blood's from the market generally - or rather the shareholders of stocks therein. Have you figured out how much of it is SUM-specific - or are you buying the market in general?

[Goldstein]

Blood in the streets.

I'm loading up big time today.

Yep, some of that is mine BJ. My Stop-loss was triggered.

Technically, I don't know where the bottom is, but I suspect that is very good buying on your part.

[Vaygor1]

I initially considered buying a bit of SUM at 280 but with the charts looking so bad I'm finding the entry point difficult despite the fundamentals looking more attractive by the day

If you trust the data and you are happy with fundamentals then my advice is to look at simple technicals and buy when the SP gets to 10% above its low point.

Until quite recently the low point was $2.80 meaning my entry point would have been at $3.08 if they recovered that far, as it would be a clear enough sign (imho) that the the trend has reversed.

But it didn't reach $3.08. As I type, the low point is now $2.64 meaning I wouldn't be buying (if I was interested which I'm not) until they rebound to $2.90, as long as $2.90 is below what you believe is fundamentally a good entry point.

Now this method means you won't skin all the meat off the bone (you'll miss out on the lowest possible buy), but you should most certainly get 90% of it. It does mean that you will likely avoid disappointment of watching the SP move too much lower, if at all, after you've secured your position.

As with everything, there's no guarantees here. The SP could rebound 10% and then drop away 20% or more after you've purchased, but I believe that scenario is fairly unlikely.