SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

Good to see that your repeated earlier forecast of a 20% fall in earnings is almost certainly wrong.

Don't count your chickens yet son.

[BFG]

Interesting comments from our boy Julian

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11385185

Methinks just keeping a cap on the exhuberence so he can pleasantly surprise again come April

Understate and overperform. Always a winning combo

[ratkin]

Excellent result. What was all the fuss about??? Poor Roger will be mortified

[couta1]

Good result for one quarter out of fourbut on a 12 month view its down just on 20% while the market is up 17%...so a relative underperformance of 37% !!!
Yep sales overall for the year are up modestly but expenses for the first half were also well up so if one assumes that expense trend to continue in the second half maybe circaa flat EPS result for the year depending on tax situation.
Somewhere around 10 cps underlying EPS puts SUM of a 2014 PE of 30. Cheap for a stock that's not materially growing EPS ? Not it my book.

The thing is this sector has a massive tailwind Roger and as your old mate Norah stated a couple of years ago Sum is a long term investment(Sorry mate couldn't resist) Ryman may be best of breed but they can't meet the demand on their own so Sum is well positioned as the second biggest developer and IMHO offers the most upside from its current price of all the listed companies despite their failings.

[Beagle]

Excellent result. What was all the fuss about??? Poor Roger will be mortified

Not at all. Surprised by Q4 sales but I take a longer view. Holders are the ones who should be mortified with a whopping 37% under-performance v the NZX50 in the last 12 months.
Don't feel sorry for me mate, my portfolio comfortably outperformed the NZX50 last year and I'm "well positioned" for 2015.

Couta1 - So am I to take it that the arrogant manner in which SUM management have mishandled the Boulcott development, their slowness to see the need for dementure units, and their inaction in matching RYM and MET's fixed fee for life leaves you with no current concerns whatsoever over management's / directors abilities ?

[winner69]

Fine tuned forecast NPAT for FY14

Up a tad because housing market still on a roll - forecast now $45m

That's 21 cents per share

[Bjauck]

I added to our holding at the open $2.92.Was prepared to go to $2.95 so pleased.
Has brought our average to approx. $1.42ps.
I note the share price has moved above both the 50 day EMA $2.79 and the 200 day EMA $2.96,so looks as though we are back in the new uptrend?

Looking at Yahoo! sp stats, I don't think that the SUM sp has been under $1.42 since the first 3 months or so after its listing at the end of 2011. Does that mean that this is your first additional purchase since then? If so, it seems like a big vote of confidence from yourself on the back of the latest metrics.

[Beagle]

Fine tuned forecast NPAT for FY15

Up a tad because housing market still on a roll - forecast now $45m

That's 21 cents per share

I think I'll take that as confirmation you're now long this stock. Average brokers 2015 forecast according to Reuters is about 14.5 cps...but how they can guess that when the company itself refuses to issue a forecast, is presently talking down the outlook and they haven't even released 2014 EPS is anyone's guess. 13.9% growth in annual sales is hardly stellar.

[couta1]

Roger note I said despite their failings, personally I've pushed the company regarding the Dementia unit issue and fixed fees and its up to other shareholders to do the same if they feel strongly enough about it ( The AGM isn't far off so a good chance for others to speak up)

[couta1]

so what you are saying is even poor management can achieve good results in a booming sector.
Probably very true........ but we have all heard the saying it is not till the tide goes out that you can see who has been swimming with no pants on

Are you still holding Snapiti?