SUM - Summerset Group

[Beagle]

What was their eps growth last year ?

[NZSilver]

Bubble pops ryman, met and sum all going to feel it. That will be the time to buY

[trader_jackson]

Great result, already fully priced in of course, and to add to the 'interestingness' I wonder what will happen when the Auckland housing market stalls later this year (or it may have already begun according to barfoot and thompson)... At least Ryman have a heavy care focus, not quite as exposed as SUM... having said that SUM do have some very good quality villages...

When (not really and if) housing bubble in Auckland pops, I am looking forward to seeing ARV continue to rise while SUM gets hit hard

[percy]

Bubble pops ryman, met and sum all going to feel it. That will be the time to buY

This argument keeps coming up every couple of years.I note Craig's are great believers the property market drives the retirement village sector,while Simon Challies, of RYM does not.History has shown Challies is right.
My brother looked at buying a unit, and his approach about selling his house was "we will meet the market."
I believe "when Nanna needs to go into a village/care she needs to go now" and it does not matter what the property market is doing at that time.

[BlackPeter]

When (not really and if) housing bubble in Auckland pops, I am looking forward to seeing ARV continue to rise while SUM gets hit hard

Why would you say that? SUM has a lower exposure to the Auckland market than the others of the "big three".

And looking at Arvida ... what rise? I guess this would be for a different threat, but why would you think their shares have ever a chance to rise? Their margin is poor, they won't make money from property appreciation but have all the disadvantages of a labour intensive business run by underpaid staff and supporting a clientele with huge needs but little money to pay for it.

I guess - yes, I am giving as well money (donations) to church, Red Cross and Cancer Society (to name just a few), and they all do as well worthwhile social work. However - don't expect to get money back from them. ARV falls into the same category, even if they pretend to be a commercial enterprise. Some might make money with ARV, but unlikely in the long run the shareholders.

[percy]

Why would you say that? SUM has a lower exposure to the Auckland market than the others of the "big three".

And looking at Arvida ... what rise? I guess this would be for a different threat, but why would you think their shares have ever a chance to rise? Their margin is poor, they won't make money from property appreciation but have all the disadvantages of a labour intensive business run by underpaid staff and supporting a clientele with huge needs but little money to pay for it.

I guess - yes, I am giving as well money (donations) to church, Red Cross and Cancer Society (to name just a few), and they all do as well worthwhile social work. However - don't expect to get money back from them. ARV falls into the same category, even if they pretend to be a commercial enterprise. Some might make money with ARV, but unlikely in the long run the shareholders.

I concur.Exactly how I read it.

[Beagle]

that is irrelevant Roger. We are looking forward. What is Ryman's forward guidance? 15% underlying earnings growth? Cute.

Of course its relevant. Quite obviously they're hitting the ball out of the park "at present" with sales of their new Auckland villages all coming together in a sweet spot for the company but its their average earnings growth over a period of time that's necessary to justify lofty PE multiples. Anyway, horses for courses, I'm happy with my MET and RYM.

[gv1]

Big volumes going through...I wonder if SP will go any higher..thinking to getting in/not.

[percy]

Big volumes going through...I wonder if SP will go any higher..thinking to getting in/not.

Setting a new high is very positive,as is the out look,both for the sector and the company.
I would expect it has surprised a few analysts,so I would buy before they upgrade their projections.

[gv1]

Thankk youu Percy...cashup at the moment.