SUM - Summerset Group

[winner69]

Does it mean sales from Wigram to be accrued in this quarter or in Q4?

"As previously signalled, we will be opening one new village this year. Wigram village will open in the fourth quarter of the year and will contribute to sales in this quarter.”

Sounds like they sell them (unconditional) this quarter with real opening after September

How big is this village?
.

[winner69]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

[Carpenterjoe]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

Numbers are growing, am I right in thinking cashflow statement will read inflows from sales somewhere around 180-210mil?

[ratkin]

Have to love the healthcare sector, the gift that keeps on giving.

[Beagle]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

Underlying profit is all that counts in this sector. 15 cps after growing very slowly last year is not that spectacular.
I need to service my car next week, can I borrow your HUGE RAMP.

[couta1]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

[winner69]

Underlying profit is all that counts in this sector. 15 cps after growing very slowly last year is not that spectacular.
I need to service my car next week, can I borrow your HUGE RAMP.

If you were going to 'float' Rogers Mansion Ltd what value what you put on your west Auckland mansion in bush clad surroundings?

The few hundred thousand you bought it for or the few million its worth now?

[Beagle]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

Best post I've seen on here for quite a long time. SUM's, (pun intended) the situation up perfectly. Take my hat off to you mate, unique insights into the industry from working in it...others posters take note, Couta1 has the good oil sorted in this sector.

[Beagle]

If you were going to 'float' Rogers Mansion Ltd what value what you put on your west Auckland mansion in bush clad surroundings?

The few hundred thousand you bought it for or the few million its worth now?

I won't comment specifically but will give you this insight. If you buy a house built in B grade materials...like SUM does with its villages, houses / villages don't go up as fast as those using the very best and most durable construction methodology and materials. Noticed how SUM's revaluations aren't as strong as others in the sector ? Visit a few of the SUM and RYM villages and notice the differences.
Unfortunately I have learned this lesson from the school of hard knocks.

[percy]

The latest results look good however doubling up first half numbers to get end of year numbers has many obstacles. New sales were 160 so double that is 320 but don't forget that 160 comes from 4 new villages coming on tap but in the second half they only have 1 new village coming online (Wigram a 250 resident facility) so lets say they get 140 in the next half will give them their targeted build rate of 300 units so no surprises there. What's really fattened up the numbers for them is the jump in resale units but as we know from last year these are fickle and seasonal and I can tell you for a fact that there has been a higher than usual numbers of deaths over the last few months. NG you are correct that Sum are on a high growth curve stage at the moment but I still favour Ryman for the following reasons 1. An impeccable experienced management. 2.A 15 year proven history of record profits. 3. Double the demographic pool size to draw from now they are cracking Aussie. 4.Their villages are a lot bigger (All the new ones are 400 plus capacity compared to Sums 200-250ish) 5. They offer the full continuum of care model including dementia. You might even say Rymans share price is a bargain at the moment when you consider they will make around 130 million of underlying profit this financial year that's 4 times Summersets based on their latest guidance. There is scope for them all to continue to do well of course.

I agree with Roger,an excellent post.
I take it your last sentence includes MET,RYM,SUM but not ARV.?