SUM - Summerset Group

[percy]

Just when you thought things could not get better,than just got a whole lot better.!
Well done SUM.Momentum gaining speed.!
Forecast earnings rising from projected $32mil --$34mil up to $36mil to $39mil is a pleasant surprise.
We are "well positioned"!!!!!

[winner69]

Absolutely stunning news

[iceman]

Yes sure is great news. Going from strength to strength with great sales numbers and underlying earnings beyond our wildest expectations

[winner69]

Rolling 4 quarter sales are now 533 - 341 new and 192 resales.

At this rate they will hit 600 for the full year with new sales totalling 370

No wonder they confident of saying $34m underlying for the year.

The way the property prices are going I reckon real profit of $80m at least

That's 37 cents a share .....easily justifying a share price of $5 or more

Go your good thing

As usual I underestimated full year outlook after June announcement - 600 on rolling 4 quarter basis already reached. Can't go backwards can they

Maybe 650 for the full year

Stunning

[winner69]

New Guy would be impressed

Did New Guy delete himself or something - posts seem to have disappeared

[Beagle]

Absolutely stunning news

Based on the mid point of forward guidance they will enjoy underlying earnings of 17.09 cps which puts them on a current year PE of 22.

I will play the Devil's advocate here, (seems to be my established role with SUM) With the booming Auckland market and the concurrent sales of four major developments it appears all their star's have come into alignment this year.

The question is, is this profit growth repeatable going forward given that developments have such a long lead time and there's aren't another 4 major new developments to sell in 2016 or is the concurrent alignment of a number of positive attributes a temporary phenomenon ? The Auckland property market looks irrational to many commentators and although a beneficiary myself I can't see these stratospheric prices lasting.

I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ?

[Harvey Specter]

The question is, is this profit growth repeatable going forward given that developments have such a long lead time and there's aren't another 4 major new developments to sell in 2016 or is the concurrent alignment of a number of positive attributes a temporary phenomenon ?

What is their current pipeline? From memory, their target build rate was far lower than I thought it should be, but probably sensible while they upskill (since bring stuff inhouse like RYM).

Disc: sold out of all retirement but might start looking again as my situation has changed a bit.

[couta1]

They only have one new site coming on tap this year(Wigram) oh and I forgot to mention that dormant but lovely Boulcott site

[skid]

Just when you thought things could not get better,than just got a whole lot better.!
Well done SUM.Momentum gaining speed.!
Forecast earnings rising from projected $32mil --$34mil up to $36mil to $39mil is a pleasant surprise.
We are "well positioned"!!!!!

They definitely got better for today. All you need is the market to get better ...like in august.

[Bjauck]

... The Auckland property market looks irrational to many commentators and although a beneficiary myself I can't see these stratospheric prices lasting.

I know you work on absolute earnings including revaluations, (not underlying), so how does the stock do going forward with less new developments to sell next year and possible devaluations in existing stock ?

From memory, including proposed villages, I think that SUM is not over-exposed to Auckland. In relation to already-developed villages, it is under-exposed (it has fewer villages that the Auckland population would otherwise warrant). I think that MET would have greater exposure to Auckland; RYM less.